FACT CHECK: Obama and Medicare premiums

WASHINGTON (AP) — It seems to be something of an occupational hazard for President Barack Obama: When he talks about his health care law, he's bound to hit a fact bump sooner or later.

So it went Tuesday night, when he declared Medicare premiums have stayed flat thanks to the law, when they've gone up. As for an even bigger theme of his State of the Union address, the president's assertion that "upward mobility has stalled" in America runs contrary to recent research, while other findings support him.

A look at some of the facts and political circumstances behind his claims, along with a glance at the Republican response to his speech:

OBAMA: "Because of this (health care) law, no American can ever again be dropped or denied coverage for a preexisting condition like asthma, back pain or cancer. No woman can ever be charged more just because she's a woman. And we did all this while adding years to Medicare's finances, keeping Medicare premiums flat, and lowering prescription costs for millions of seniors."

THE FACTS: He's right that insurers can no longer turn people down because of medical problems, and they can't charge higher premiums to women because of their sex. The law also lowered costs for seniors with high prescription drug bills. But Medicare's monthly premium for outpatient care has gone up in recent years.

Although the basic premium remained the same this year at $104.90, it increased by $5 a month in 2013, up from $99.90 in 2012. Obama's health care law also raised Medicare premiums for upper-income beneficiaries, and both the president and Republicans have proposed to expand that.

Finally, the degree to which the health care law improved Medicare finances is hotly debated. On paper, the program's giant trust fund for inpatient care gained more than a decade of solvency because of cuts to service providers required under the health law. But in practice those savings cannot simultaneously be used to expand coverage for the uninsured and shore up Medicare.

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President Barack Obama delivers the State of Union address before a joint session of Congress in the …

OBAMA: "Today, after four years of economic growth, corporate profits and stock prices have rarely been higher, and those at the top have never done better. But average wages have barely budged. Inequality has deepened. Upward mobility has stalled."

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President Barack Obama gives his State of the Union address on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday J …

THE FACTS: The most recent evidence suggests that mobility hasn't worsened. A team of economists led by Harvard's Raj Chetty released a study last week that found the United States isn't any less socially mobile than it was in the 1970s. Looking at children born between 1971 and 1993, the economists found that the odds of a child born in the poorest 20 percent of families making it into the top 20 percent hasn't changed.

"We find that children entering the labor market today have the same chances of moving up in the income distribution (relative to their parents) as children born in the 1970s," the authors said.

Still, other research has found that the United States isn't as mobile a society as most Americans would like to believe. In a study of 22 countries, economist Miles Corak of the University of Ottawa found that the United States ranked 15th in social mobility. Only Italy and Britain among wealthy countries ranked lower. By some measures, children in the United States are as likely to inherit their parents' economic status as their height.

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OBAMA: "We'll need Congress to protect more than 3 million jobs by finishing transportation and waterways bills this summer.  But I will act on my own to slash bureaucracy and streamline the permitting process for key projects, so we can get more construction workers on the job as fast as possible."

THE FACTS: Cutting rules and regulations doesn't address what's holding up most transportation projects, which is lack of money. The federal Highway Trust Fund will run out of money in August without action. To finance infrastructure projects, Obama wants Congress to raise taxes on businesses that keep profits or jobs overseas, but that idea has been a political nonstarter.

The number of projects affected by the administration's efforts to cut red tape is relatively small, said Joshua Schank, president and CEO of the Eno Center for Transportation, a think tank. "The reason most of these projects are delayed is they don't have enough money. So it's great that you are expediting the review process, but the review process isn't the problem. The problem is we don't have enough money to invest in our infrastructure in the first place."

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OBAMA: "More than 9 million Americans have signed up for private health insurance or Medicaid coverage."

THE FACTS: That's not to say 9 million more Americans have gained insurance under the law.

The administration says about 6 million people have been determined to be eligible for Medicaid since Oct. 1 and an additional 3 million roughly have signed up for private health insurance through the new markets created by the health care law. That's where Obama's number of 9 million comes from. But it's unclear how many in the Medicaid group were already eligible for the program or renewing existing coverage.
Likewise, it's not known how many of those who signed up for private coverage were previously insured. A large survey released last week suggests the numbers of uninsured gaining coverage may be smaller. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index found that the uninsured rate for U.S. adults dropped by 1.2 percentage points in January, to 16.1 percent. That would translate to roughly 2 million to 3 million newly insured people since the law's coverage expansion started Jan. 1.
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OBAMA: "In the coming weeks, I will issue an executive order requiring federal contractors to pay their federally funded employees a fair wage of at least $10.10 an hour, because if you cook our troops' meals or wash their dishes, you shouldn't have to live in poverty."

THE FACTS: This would be a hefty boost in the federal minimum wage, now $7.25, but not many would see it.

Most employees of federal contractors already earn more than $10.10. About 10 percent of those workers, roughly 200,000, might be covered by the higher minimum wage. But there are several wrinkles. The increase would not take effect until 2015 at the earliest and it doesn't apply to existing federal contracts, only new ones. Renewed contracts also will be exempt from Obama's order unless other terms of the agreement change, such as the type of work or number of employees needed.

Obama also said he'll press Congress to raise the federal minimum wage overall. He tried that last year, seeking a $9 minimum, but Congress didn't act.
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REP. CATHY McMORRIS RODGERS of Washington, in her prepared Republican response: "Last month, more Americans stopped looking for a job than found one. Too many people are falling further and further behind because, right now, the president's policies are making people's lives harder."

THE FACTS: She leaves out a significant factor in the high number of people who aren't looking for jobs: Baby boomers are retiring.

It's true that a large part of the still-high unemployment rate is due to jobless workers who have given up looking for a job. There are roughly three people seeking every job opening, a circumstance that can discourage others from trying. But one big reason people aren't seeking employment is that there are so many boomers — the generation born in the immediate aftermath of World War II — and therefore more than the usual number of retirements.

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Associated Press writers Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, Christopher S. Rugaber, Joan Lowy, Sam Hananel and Tom Raum contributed to this report.

EDITOR'S NOTE _ An occasional look at political claims that take shortcuts with the facts or don't tell the full story.

King Obama

 

'WITH OR WITHOUT CONGRESS': Obama hits road after vowing action

 After vowing in his State of the Union address to use the power of the pen to pursue his agenda in 2014, President Obama once again is hitting the campaign trail to tout his proposals – while countering criticism that his presidency has entered a lame-duck phase.  

The president on Wednesday will launch a multi-state, post-speech tour. He’ll visit a Maryland town just outside Washington before traveling to the Pittsburgh suburbs. From there, he travels to Wisconsin and Tennessee on Thursday.
The stumping comes after the president offered a mixed message in his State of the Union address – he made clear he’ll sidestep Congress “wherever and whenever” he can to tackle economic issues but also lowered his sights for what is achievable at this stage in his presidency.  
In his State of the Union address, Obama stopped short of proposing any sweeping new initiatives. He renewed his call for Congress to approve an immigration overhaul “this year,” but for the most part narrowed his focus to smaller-ticket items he’s vowing to do on his own.
Urging a “year of action,” he pitched what he called “concrete, practical proposals” to boost the middle class and build “new ladders of opportunity” for others to enter it.
“Some require congressional action, and I’m eager to work with all of you,” Obama said. “But America does not stand still – and neither will I.  So wherever and whenever I can take steps without legislation to expand opportunity for more American families, that’s what I’m going to do.”
The speech reflected a president struggling to advance his agenda partway through his second term, in the face of a divided Congress, flagging public support and several controversies. Instead of flatly declaring what will be achieved in 2014, the president said “let’s see” where both parties can make progress.
Thematically, Obama focused his remarks on income inequality and American workers. He argued that the economic recovery largely has benefited those “at the top” while leaving many Americans struggling to break into the middle class.
He offered a mixed prescription for those economic ills.
Advisers had signaled ahead of the speech that the president in 2014 will rely more on executive actions to pursue portions of his agenda, with the understanding that passing anything controversial through Congress is an uphill battle. Obama took a first step in that direction on Tuesday, announcing he’ll approve an increase in the minimum wage for new federal contract workers, from $7.25 an hour to $10.10.
Among the other executive actions Obama is vowing to take is a plan described as “starter savings accounts.” Obama said he’d launch “myRA” accounts to help people save for retirement – under the rough outline of the plan, the accounts would be offered, via employers, through a Roth IRA account and backed by the government. The initiatives also include a review of federal job training programs, a partnership with CEOs to help long-term unemployed, and partnerships with tech companies to improve web connectivity in the classroom.
Obama also said "I'll act on my own" to streamline the bureaucracy for key infrastructure projects.
On gun control as well – which featured prominently in last year’s address, only to stall in Congress – Obama said he’d keep trying “with or without Congress to help stop more tragedies from visiting innocent Americans.”
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., speaking on Fox News, complained afterward that Obama was taking a “my way or the highway” approach by saying he’d bypass Congress, sounding more like a “bully” than someone looking to work with lawmakers.
But the president would still need Congress’ support for major agenda items, including an increase in the federal minimum wage for all workers, one of his top priorities.
Obama renewed that call on Tuesday night, telling Congress: “Say yes. Give America a raise.”
He further urged employers, as well as states, to raise their wages with or without Congress.
The president also called for Congress to extend long-term unemployment benefits, and expand the earned income tax credit for workers without children. On education, he renewed a call for Congress to help ensure universal pre-K for 4-year-olds.
While some of Obama’s future executive actions may be modest in scope, House Speaker John Boehner on Tuesday cautioned Obama not to overstep his bounds. “We have a Constitution,” Boehner said, warning that if he goes too far he’ll hit a “brick wall.”
Meanwhile, in the official GOP response, Washington Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers urged the president to join Republicans in fostering a more pro-business climate.
“We hope the president will join us in a year of real action by empowering people -- not by making their lives harder with unprecedented spending, higher taxes and fewer jobs.”
Obama delivered the State of the Union as he struggles in his second term to achieve the kind of legislative victories he notched in his first.
The past year has seen the administration thrown off course by controversies and other setbacks, ranging from the exposure of the government’s widespread surveillance activities to the problems with the ObamaCare launch.
Though Obama’s address focused largely on the economy and wages, the health care law remains a major challenge in 2014. The administration has worked to address widespread technical problems with the federal insurance exchanges, but lawmakers are still voicing concerns about the financial stability of the system. Some Republicans also tried to draw attention to the law’s downsides by bringing as their guests Tuesday night Americans whose coverage was negatively affected by the law.
Obama did offer a defense of his health law toward the end of the address. He stressed that the law prevents Americans from being dropped from or denied coverage over a preexisting condition, and said Americans “aren’t interested in refighting old battles” on the law.
To Republican critics, he said: “Tell America what you’d do differently. Let’s see if the numbers add up. But let’s not have another 40-something votes to repeal a law that’s already helping millions of Americans like Amanda. The first 40 were plenty.”
Obama left foreign policy for the end of his address, defending his administration’s decision to engage Iran in nuclear negotiations while acknowledging there is more work to do in the fight against terrorism.
“While we have put Al Qaeda’s core leadership on a path to defeat, the threat has evolved, as Al Qaeda affiliates and other extremists take root in different parts of the world,” Obama said. Obama vowed to keep working with allies to “disrupt and disable” those networks.