Wednesday, June 25, 2014

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Official: Intelligence community warned about 'growing' ISIS threat in Iraq


The U.S. intelligence community warned about the "growing threat" from Sunni militants in Iraq since the beginning of the year, a senior intelligence official said Tuesday -- a claim that challenges assertions by top administration officials that they were caught off guard by the capture of key Iraqi cities.
Earlier Tuesday, in an interview with Fox News, Secretary of State John Kerry said "nobody expected" Iraqi security forces to be decisively driven out by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, as they were earlier this month in Mosul.
But in a separate briefing with reporters Tuesday afternoon, the senior intelligence official said the intelligence community had warned about the ISIS threat.
“During the past year, the intelligence community has provided strategic warning of Iraq’s deteriorating security situation," the official said. "We routinely highlighted (ISIS') growing threat in Iraq, the increasing difficulties Iraq’s security forced faced in combating (ISIS), and the political strains that were contributing to Iraq’s declining stability.”
Asked who failed to act, the official did not explain.
Offering a grave warning about the current strength of the group -- which is a State Department-designated terror organization -- the official also said that barring a major counteroffensive, the intelligence community assesses that ISIS is "well-positioned to keep the territory it has gained."The official said the ISIS "strike force" now has between 3,000 and 5,000 members.
Further, the official said ISIS, as a former Al Qaeda affiliate, has the "aspiration and intent" to target U.S. interests. Asked if Americans have joined, the intelligence official said it "stands to reason that Americans have joined."
The information from the intelligence community adds to the picture of what is known about the ISIS threat, and what might have been known in the weeks and months before its militants seized Mosul and other northern cities and towns.
Kerry, speaking with Fox News on Tuesday in the middle of a multi-country swing through the Middle East and Europe as he tries to calm the sectarian crisis in Iraq, pushed back on the notion that more could have been done from a Washington perspective to prevent the takeovers. Pressed on whether the fall of Mosul and other cities to Sunni militants marks an intelligence failure, Kerry said nobody could have predicted Iraqi security forces would have deserted.
"We don't have people embedded in those units, and so obviously nobody knew that. I think everybody in Iraq was surprised. People were surprised everywhere," he said.
The secretary noted that the U.S. and Iraq did not sign a formal agreement allowing troops to stay in the country past 2011, so "we didn't have eyes in there."
"But the Iraqis didn't even have a sense of what was happening," Kerry said.
When asked what the U.S. did to shore up Mosul, after seeing other Iraqi cities fall earlier this year, Kerry added: "In the end, the Iraqis are responsible for their defense, and nobody expected wholesale desertion and wholesale betrayal, in a sense, by some leaders who literally either signed up with the guys who came in or walked away from their posts and put on their civilian clothes.
"No, nobody expected that."
But aside from the apparent warnings from the U.S. intelligence community, reports in The Telegraph and Daily Beast claim that Kurdish sources did warn American and British officials that ISIS was gaining strength and ready to advance, but it "fell on deaf ears."
A senior lieutenant to Lahur Talabani, head of Kurdish intelligence, reportedly told The Daily Beast that the Kurds passed on warnings about a possible takeover of Mosul to British and U.S. government officials.
"We knew exactly what strategy they were going to use, we knew the military planners," the official said.
The Telegraph reported that Washington and London got warnings months ago about Sunni militant plans to try and take over the northwestern region of Iraq. The Kurds reportedly had been monitoring developments on their own.
At this stage, though, the question for Kerry and the Obama administration is how far they are willing to go to shore up the embattled Iraqi government. Kerry, in Baghdad a day earlier, pressed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to proceed with the formation of a new government -- Iraq's parliament is set to begin this process next week.
In the meantime, President Obama has committed up to 300 U.S. military advisers to help Iraq's government fend off ISIS forces. The administration continues to weigh whether to authorize airstrikes.

Cochran defeats McDaniel in tight Mississippi GOP Senate runoff race


Battling for his political survival, six-term Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran narrowly edged out challenger state Sen. Chris McDaniel for the win in a tight Republican runoff race that was too close to call for much of the night.
Neither candidate won the GOP nomination outright in the state's June 3 primary. The runoff was to be a test of whether the Senate veteran Cochran could win over voters with his Washington seniority and clout. 
“It’s been a real pleasure working with so many of you and making appearances in towns all across Mississippi,” Cochran said during his brief victory speech late Tuesday night, in which he thanked those who had helped him secure what he called a "great victory. ... It's a group effort. It's not a solo. And so we all have a right to be proud of our state tonight."
The Associated Press reported that unofficial returns showed Cochran, a 76-year-old first elected to Congress in 1972, with a lead of just over 6,000 votes, holding 50.8 percent of the vote to McDaniel's 49.2 percent with 99.9 percent of precincts reporting.
A defiant McDaniel offered no explicit concession when he spoke to his supporters in Hattiesburg, but instead complained of "dozens of irregularities" that he implied were due to Cochran courting Democrats and independents.
"We are not prone to surrender, we Mississippians," McDaniel told his backers. "Before this race is over we have to be absolutely certain the Republican primary was won by Republican voters."
McDaniel later told his supporters there was “nothing dangerous or extreme about wanting to balance a budget, about defending the constitution and the civil liberties therein or for standing as people of faith for a country we built, that we believe in," he said.
Following the shocking ouster of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia June 10, Tea Party groups focused their energy on the Mississippi race - backing McDaniel - as the next test of their own influence.
The race attracted about $12 million in spending from outside groups. Former Green Bay Packers quarterback — and Gulfport, Mississippi, native — Brett Favre called the 76-year-old Cochran a "proven and respected leader" in one ad paid for by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Cochran and his allies, notably former Gov. Haley Barbour, promoted his Washington establishment credentials, focusing on the billions he funneled to his home state, one of the poorest in the nation. In a last-ditch effort, Cochran reached out to traditionally Democratic voters — blacks and union members — who could cast ballots in the runoff. That possible factor in Cochran's victory is sure to be cited by critics in days and weeks to come.
In predominantly black neighborhoods of Hattiesburg's south side, an organized effort for Cochran was evident. Ronnie Wilson, a 50-year-old unemployed Hattiesburg man, said he had been encouraged by his pastor to vote for Cochran.
"They say the other guy is trying to cut food stamps and all that," Wilson said. "I'm trying to look after the majority of people not working."
McDaniel had railed against the federal "spending sprees" by Cochran, but his calls to slash the budget unnerved some voters.
Frank McCain, a 71-year-old retired tax administrator from Mendenhall, voted for Cochran.
"I believe he is doing a good job," McCain said. "But mostly I'm more scared of the other candidate. He wants to do things like not taking school funding when everyone else is."
Kellie Phipps, a 42-year-old public school teacher from Taylorsville, voted for McDaniel. "I think we need some new blood," Phipps said.
In November, Cochran will face Democrat Travis Childers, a former congressman, in the heavily Republican state.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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