Saturday, January 31, 2015

Keystone Cartoon


North Dakota may lose $5.5 billion in revenue as oil plunges


North Dakota lawmakers are now expecting billions less in tax revenue during the next two and a half years. 
Blame falling oil prices. 
A report from Legislative Council downgrading revenue projections by $5.5 billion points mostly to the impact of oil tax exemptions the Legislature previously failed to reform. 
During the 2013 legislative session multiple bills to eliminate the exemptions in exchange for lower top rates were rejected. Now plunging oil prices are expected to invoke those triggers causing a multi-billion swing in the state's expected revenues. 
In early January, lawmakers began their 2015 session under what was described as a "black cloud" of oil price concerns. Now a projection released by lawmakers Thursday expects the state to lose $680 million in income and sales tax revenue between now and June 30, 2017. 
North Dakota likely will lose another $4.8 billion in oil and gas tax revenue during that same period. 
The impact on the state's finances could be dramatic.

Romney exit resets 2016 field, gives boost to Bush


Mitt Romney’s announcement Friday that he will not run for president a third time has reset the budding 2016 field – with political strategists saying his exit could position Jeb Bush as establishment favorite while helping him assemble a campaign team in key early-voting states.
At the same time, the former Florida governor could become an even bigger target for party conservatives who criticize both Bush and Romney as too moderate; now, only Bush remains.
“Unless [New Jersey Gov.] Chris Christie can show he is more viable than he has demonstrated at this point, we are going to have one establishment candidate versus an entire conservative field,” Steve Deace, a syndicated conservative radio talk show host based in Iowa, told FoxNews.com.
Being the “establishment” candidate would have its upsides.
Now, veteran operatives who were torn between Bush and Romney will be free to put their energies into the Bush camp, should he decide to run. Had Romney run, both men would be vying for the same resources, including Wall Street money and institutional party support.
“This frees up any uncertainty for campaign funders who just did not know what to do between Jeb and Mitt – they no longer have that conundrum,” one Republican strategist, who did not want to be named, told FoxNews.com. “Plus there is a whole pool of conservative establishment voters who would have been torn between [them].
“It doesn’t mean that they will automatically shift to Bush, but he will have a greater ability now to pick [those voters] up.”
Even before Romney’s announcement, Bush was starting to pick up members of Romney’s old gang.
On Thursday, Bush’s team confirmed that Romney’s former senior Iowa adviser, David Kochel, had signed on as a senior strategist for Bush’s newly launched Right to Rise PAC.
Reports also emerged that former Romney donors were moving toward Bush, and folks who ran the ground games in key primary states in 2012 were no longer as enthusiastic. Doubts lingered over whether he could manage a third campaign and win.
Bush also flew out to Utah for a private meeting with Romney last week.
“I will give [the establishment] credit,” Deace said. “They were headed for an all-out self-immolation with both Romney and Bush running. So Jeb goes out on a plane and basically knee-caps Romney in public.”
Romney didn’t quite frame it that way on Friday. In a conference call with supporters, only three weeks after he surprised donors by announcing he was weighing a run, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee said he was out.
Romney said he believes that he could win the nomination, and that he would have enough funding and support.
But he said it would have been a "difficult test and a hard fight." He said he did not want to “make it more difficult for someone else to emerge who may have a better chance of” becoming president.
On the heels of the announcement, Romney planned to have dinner with Christie Friday night.
Along with Christie, plenty of other potential GOP candidates could compete with Bush for the big donors and the high-profile strategists, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and others.
But there are signs Bush – after avoiding a big conservative summit in Des Moines last weekend that Christie attended -- is ready to make the foray into the first-in-the-nation caucus state in a big way. Those caucuses are now one year away.
Charlie Szold, communications director of the Iowa Republican Party, told Fox News that Bush has called the chairman of the Iowa GOP, and “indicated he's interested in playing here in Iowa.”
"I would say, clearly, Governor Bush hiring David Kochel is a good indication he's interested in Iowa and wants to participate actively in this process,” Szold said. “Kochel has been a good friend to Iowa for many years and we're excited to have him playing such an important role in a presidential election."
Bill Whalen, political analyst at the Hoover Institution, said Romney’s exit should send a signal to Bush to get his campaign, if that is what he intends, in full gear.
“I think the lesson for Jeb Bush is to get in early and start staking out positions,” he said. “It’s probably time to stop playing footsie. Start collecting money and support and force the rest of the field to react.”
The conservative base is starting to react, too, said Whalen, who noted that “now there is one less person to beat up and now the focus is on Bush.”
Deace said Romney’s decision not to run “clearly puts a bigger bull’s-eye on [Bush’s] back,” but at the same time, he said, conservatives had hoped that Romney and Bush were going to have to fight it out a bit longer. Right now, there is a herd of potential candidates playing to the conservative base -- including former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz -- who would have to wrestle each other for the support of the base come primary time.
Whalen said one shouldn’t count out a “mainstream runoff,” either. “There is a large pool of money in Republican circles… they are looking for the candidate who is the most capable of winning 270 electoral votes,” he said, adding: “While Bush would be the front-runner, he would not be the overwhelming front-runner.”
He said Romney’s exit has created an “opening” for Christie, Rubio and even Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
If Romney’s own words Friday are any indication, he is not banking on Bush either:
“I believe that one of our next generation of Republican leaders, one who may not be as well-known as I am today, one who has not yet taken their message across the country, one who is just getting started, may well emerge as being better able to defeat the Democrat nominee.”

Republicans fume over ex-Gitmo inmate’s Taliban outreach, WH says no regrets


Outraged Republicans pointed to claims that one of five former Guantanamo prisoners traded for American Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl tried to contact the Taliban as further evidence that the Obama administration made a "bad deal." 
The White House and Pentagon, once again, on Friday defended the terms of that trade and insisted that all five former detainees are in Qatar and accounted for -- and have not returned to the battlefield. 
Asked if the Obama administration has any regrets over the Bergdahl-Taliban trade, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said: "Of course not." He said they made the swap last year based on the principle that nobody in uniform "is left behind." 
But Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., in an interview with Fox News, raised concerns that the five freed fighters might indeed be planning to return to the battlefield in the coming months, particularly after strict monitoring in Qatar is over. 
"What happens then?" Ayotte asked. "Never mind that they're already attempting to re-engage and obviously making communications to do so." 
She said: "I think this was a bad deal." 
The senator pushed anew for legislation she has crafted that would suspend transfers of detainees assessed to be high- or medium-risk. 
On Thursday, a U.S. official confirmed to Fox News that one of the five Taliban prisoners traded last year for Bergdahl had been intercepted making phone calls to the Taliban. Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby went further Friday, saying "at least one" was involved in "potential re-engagement." 
Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, urged Obama to halt the transfers out of Guantanamo in response. "How many wake-up calls does the president need? These actions are putting American lives at risk," he said in a statement Thursday. 
Earnest said Friday the monitoring efforts for the so-called Taliban 5 "have been updated" to reflect concerns about their contacts with terror groups. 
He said the administration remains confident the measures in place to keep watch over those five former detainees "substantially mitigate" the threat they pose to U.S. security. He said all are in Qatar and being monitored, and none has engaged in any "physical violence." 
"None of these individuals has returned to the battlefield," Earnest said. 
Kirby also said Friday the U.S. is still confident those five detainees pose minimal risks as they remain under supervision in Qatar. 
"We remain confident, as we were when we sent them there, that the assurances we've received are sufficient enough to help us mitigate any future threat that these individuals might pose," Kirby said. 
Amid the debate over the former detainees, the Taliban flexed their muscle again on Thursday in Afghanistan, just weeks after the end of the U.S. combat mission. 
On Thursday evening, an attacker infiltrated a military base at Kabul's international airport, killing three American contractors. A Taliban spokesman claimed responsibility. Though the Pentagon is not confirming who was responsible, a spokesman said Friday the attacker was in an Afghan uniform and was subsequently killed. 
Kirby said it's a "tragic and grim reminder that Afghanistan still remains a dangerous place in many ways." 
The White House this week, meanwhile, took pains to avoid calling the Taliban a terrorist organization, at first labeling them an "armed insurgency" before acknowledging that they are on a formal listing of terror groups. 
While the Taliban is not listed on the State Department list of foreign terrorist organizations, it is on the Treasury Department's list of "specially designated global terrorist," dating back to a 2002 executive order. Earnest acknowledged Thursday that they "do carry out tactics that are akin to terrorism, they do pursue terror attacks in an effort to try to advance their agenda." However, he said they are not like Al Qaeda in that they don't have "aspirations that extend beyond just the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan." 
Kirby claimed Friday that the White House was not trying to say the Taliban are not terrorists. He, too, offered a nuanced explanation. 
"In fact, I think my colleague and the White House made it clear that they use terror tactics to some degree to exert their influence," Kirby said. "They are not designated a foreign terrorist organization and for purposes of the U.S. armed forces in Afghanistan they are considered an armed insurgency, but nobody is discounting the kind of violence that they're capable of and remain capable of." 
According to the United Nations, at least 3,188 Afghan civilians were killed in the war in 2014 -- at least three-quarters of them by the Taliban. It was the deadliest year on record for non-combatants, according to the U.N. 
The U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan has officially ended, but 10,000 U.S. soldiers and military contractors still remain in the country, mostly in advisory and security roles. 
At Guantanamo, 122 prisoners remain at the detention camp, with 35 of them recommended for indefinite detention. The Obama administration has been looking to close the prison, with dozens of prisoners who have not been charged set for release once a county agrees to take them.

Michelle Obama defends 'American Sniper' at veterans event


First lady Michelle Obama urged Hollywood to give a more accurate portrayal of veterans and defended the Oscar-nominated "American Sniper," which has received criticism for its depiction of war.
Bradley Cooper, who is nominated for best actor for his portrayal of the late Navy SEAL sniper Chris Kyle, joined Obama and media heavyweights in Washington, D.C., on Friday to launch "6 Certified" with representatives from Warner Bros., National Geographic Channels and the Producers Guild of America.
The initiative will allow TV shows and films to display an onscreen badge that tells viewers the show they're watching has been certified by the group Got Your 6, which derives its name from military slang for "I've got your back." To be approved, the film or show must cast a veteran, tell a veteran story, have a story written by a veteran or use veterans as resources.
"We hope our country will welcome back our veterans — not by setting them apart but by fully integrating them into the fabric of our communities," Mrs. Obama said.
Mrs. Obama also came to the defense of "American Sniper" — about Kyle, considered the most lethal sniper in U.S. military history. It has become a box-office sensation and has strong supporters but has also weathered a growing storm of criticism that the film glorifies murder and serves as war propaganda.
"While I know there have been critics, I felt that, more often than not, this film touches on many of the emotions and experiences that I've heard firsthand from military families over these past few years," she said.
Chris Marvin, managing director of Got Your 6 and a former U.S. Army officer and Blackhawk helicopter pilot, said their campaign isn't hoping to show veterans in a good light but in an honest one.
"Most Americans tell us that they only see veterans portrayed as broken or as heroes who walk on water in film and television," he said by phone. "We're missing something in the middle. Veterans are everyday people.
"They're your next door neighbor who helps you bring your garbage cans back when they blow away. They're your kids' fifth-grade math teacher. It's the person running for city council," he added. "You see them every day in your own life but you don't see them on film or television."
The Got Your 6 group was launched in 2012 to enlist Hollywood in the effort to discourage stereotypes and promote more accurate representation of the 2.6 million soldiers coming home over the past 10 years.
Surveys have found that many Americans presume veterans suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, are homeless or are addicted to drugs or alcohol.
The group has taken lessons from other successful efforts to change national viewpoints, including increasing gay rights, reducing teen pregnancies, encouraging colonoscopies, improving animal rights and reducing drunken driving. It has identified Hollywood as an engine of cultural change.
"This is more of a challenge than anything else. We're challenging the entertainment industry — myself included — to live up to the responsibilities inherent in the powers we have and with the reach that we have," said Charlie Ebersol, a producer and creator of the "6 Certified" program.
Ebersol said films like 1987's "Full Metal Jacket" by Stanley Kubrick and Clint Eastwood's new "American Sniper" would likely be eligible for certification because they portray veterans accurately, even if the soldiers in those films aren't representative of the population of veterans.
Mrs. Obama cited TV shows including "Nashville" and "Doc McStuffins" as ones that share stories of "our veterans in new and meaningful ways." She said telling veterans' stories honestly makes for "tremendous TV and movies" and "are good for business as well."
Ebersol had his own list of shows with positive veteran portrayals, including the Jay Pritchett character in "Modern Family," Sam Waterston's portrayal of veteran Charlie Skinner on "The Newsroom" and Seth Rogen's guest role as a veteran on "The Mindy Project." In all them, being a veteran wasn't their defining characteristic.
"We have a real opportunity to go way beyond the platitudes of the entertainment industry. We love to say, 'I support the troops!' and 'I've got a yellow ribbon!' but there's an actual, tangible way to make a difference. That's what the challenge is here."

Saudi Arabia faces ISIS threats during transition of new king


ISIS recruits from Saudi Arabia have their sights set on seizing their oil-rich homeland, and may be preparing to strike while the Kingdom's throne is changing hands, according to Middle East intelligence experts.
A division of the Islamic State, or ISIS, reportedly released a video stating its intention to invade Saudi Arabia, an oil-rich nation and powerful U.S. ally transitioning after the death of its former king. The threat was issued by a group of Saudi militants who have joined the militant group in Iraq and Syria, and also urged sympathizers inside the Kingdom to attack from within, SITE Intelligence, an organization that tracks jihadist propaganda, reported. The grim warning underscores the terror organization's desire to annex the Middle East's wealthiest nation, said experts, as well as the country that is home to the most holy site in the Muslim world, Mecca.
"It's kind of difficult not to think of Medina and Mecca as the Islamic militants' biggest prize," Toby Matthiesen, a research fellow at the University of Cambridge and author of "The Other Saudis," told FoxNews.com. "Maybe Jerusalem, but if its goal is to re-establish the caliphate, those cities are important."
Islamic State, which claims a caliphate that stretches across parts of Iraq and Syria, has recruited thousands of fighters from Saudi Arabia, and has indicated before its designs on the Kingdom. Newsweek, citing a Twitter post by a popular anti-Saudi user, reported that a small group of militants staged a late-night attack on a border position and claimed to reach the northern town of Rafha. There has been no official confirmation of the attack, but social media war playing out between the kingdom and militants.
'It's kind of difficult not to think of Medina and Mecca as the Islamic militants' biggest prize'- Toby Matthiesen, author of 'The Other Saudis'
"They (ISIS) will always exaggerate," Charlie Winter, a researcher at the think tank Quilliam, told the magazine. "But I have not seen something like this completely pulled out of the bag before."
Saudi Arabia faces Islamic State militants on its northern border with Iraq, and unrest to the south in Yemen, where several terrorist and rebel groups are well established and recently seized the president's palace. The regional tumult comes even as the Kingdom made a swift transition after the death of King Abdullah on Jan. 23. The nation wasted no time in announcing the king's successor would be 79-year-old Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Abdullah's half-brother.
"It was done with a masterstroke," Jim B. Smith, President Obama's former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told FoxNews.com. "They took all the drama out of the transition and essentially said, 'Don't worry. Everything's stable here at the top for the next 20 years.'"
Saudi Arabia is seen as a key U.S. ally in the region and, besides its oil wealth, has provided air support in the fight against Islamic State. The relationship is so important, Obama cut his India trip short this week and led a high-level delegation to pay respects to Abdullah and meet with the new king who greeted him on the tarmac.
Aaron David Miller, a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, wrote in The Wall Street Journal, "Terror threats are the only thing that possibly trumps oil when it comes to U.S. interests. And the rise of Islamic State; Al Qaeda's resurgence in the Arabian peninsula; and the growing terror sanctuaries in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria mean that the U.S. needs local allies."
Matthiesen and Smith both said Islamic militants would have a difficult time advancing on the Kingdom, which has a capable air force and standing military.
"If they (ISIS) see the transition of leadership as vulnerability, it would be a big mistake on their part," Smith said.
Saudi Arabia has a well-trained army and a first-rate air force, he said. He said the country has been successful since 2003 in undermining extremism. He said the country has about a 50-50 divide between those who are religiously conservative and those who seek modernization.
The Kingdom also started to build a 600-mile wall along its northern border with Iraq.The Jerusalem Post reported that the border zone will feature five layers of fencing, watch towers, night-vision security and troops.
"Saudi Arabia would prove very effective if attacked," he said.

CartoonsTrashyDemsRinos