Friday, November 28, 2014

Should Obama take a cue from Australia on immigration?



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US-backed Syria rebels make new push south of Damascus

Syrian rebels backed by the United States are making their biggest gains yet south of the capital Damascus, capturing a string of towns from government forces and aiming to carve out a swath of territory leading to the doorstep of President Bashar Assad's seat of power.
The advances appear to be a rare visible success story from efforts by the U.S. and its allies to train and arm moderate rebel fighters.
The rebel forces are believed to include fighters who graduated from a nearly 2-year-old CIA training program based in Syria's southern neighbor Jordan. The group known as the Friends of Syria, including Jordan, France the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, are backing the rebels with money and weapons, said Gen. Ibrahim Jbawi, the spokesman for the Free Syrian Army's southern front.
The gains are a contrast to northern Syria, where U.S.-backed rebels are collapsing in the face of an assault by Islamic militants. Notably, in the south, the rebels are working together with fighters from al-Qaida's Syria branch, whose battle-hardened militants have helped them gain the momentum against government forces. The cooperation points to the difficulty in American efforts to build up "moderate" factions while isolating militants.
"The goal is to reach the capital ... because there is no way to bring down the regime without reaching Damascus," said Ahmad al-Masalmeh, an opposition activist in Daraa.
But few are under the illusion that the offensive in the south can loosen Assad's grip on power in the near future. The Syrian leader has benefited from the U.S.-led coalition's war against the Islamic State group, which has had the side effect of freeing up Assad's forces to focus on more moderate rebels elsewhere in the country. Government forces have seized several key areas around the capital.
Rebels in the south say they hope the new push will be just enough to pressure Assad to negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict.
Jbawi said the international support for the assault "is not enough to let the rebels win the battle militarily. They are backing (us) to pressure Bashar Assad's regime to bring him to the negotiating table."
The Islamic State group's onslaught in Syria and Iraq has given greater urgency to international efforts to find some sort of solution for Syria's conflict, which has killed more than 200,000 people and displaced millions. Previous attempts and two rounds of peace talks in Switzerland earlier this year failed to make any progress as each side remained convinced it can win the war militarily.
The U.N. envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has now proposed local cease-fires starting with the northern city of Aleppo as a building block for a wider solution — an idea that Assad has said is "worth studying."
Speaking by telephone, Jbawi said 54 rebel factions consisting of 30,000 fighters are taking part in the battles in southern Syria. Activists say that Jordan is also facilitating the rebels' push by arming some rebels and allowing them to cross freely to and from the country.
The rebel offensive gained momentum two months ago, leading to the capture of much of the Quneitra region bordering Syria's Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, as well as large areas in the southern province of Daraa on the border with Jordan.
These included the town of Nawa and the Harra hill, a strategic hill where Syrian troops had stationed monitoring equipment because of its proximity to Israeli army positions in the Golan. The hill, one of the highest in Daraa province, also overlooks a main road that rebels use.
More recently, the fighting has been concentrated in and around the contested village of Sheikh Maskeen and the nearby Brigade 82 base, one of the main government units in the province. If the rebels capture the village and the base they will be then able to threaten the Damascus-Daraa highway, a main lifeline for government forces.
The rebel offensive could eventually link opposition fighters' positions in Daraa and Quneitra with Damascus' rebel-held Ghouta suburbs.
"The military objective is to secure lines of communication and to put pressure on the capital," said Faysal Itani, a resident fellow at the Atlantic Council.
However, despite the rebel advance, Assad's forces remain strong in the area, holding bases in critical locations that the rebels will find difficult to capture, he said.
Daraa-based activist Ibrahim Hariri said that while government forces collapsed in some parts of the province, they still hold much of the city of Daraa and control the Daraa-Damascus highway, "the spine of the province."
"The regime always has a very big force in Daraa because it is close to the front with Israel," Hariri said. "Any attempt to reach Damascus will not be an easy mission."
 

OPEC keeps oil output steady despite falling prices


Reflecting its lessening oil clout, OPEC decided Thursday to keep its output target on hold and sit out falling crude prices that will likely spiral even lower as a result.
Oil prices fell sharply on the news. Even though the decision was largely expected, it showed the once-powerful cartel is losing the power to push up markets to its own advantage.
OPEC has traditionally relied on output cuts to regulate supply and prices. But it appeared to realize Thursday that with cheap crude in oversupply, a reduction would only cut into OPEC's share of the market without a lasting boost in prices and with others outside the cartel making up the difference.
Instead, the move to maintain a production target of 30 million barrels a day appeared to reflect acceptance of the Saudi view within OPEC that short-term pain had to be accepted for later gain.
The Saudis and their Gulf allies hope to put economic pressure on rival producers in the U.S., which need higher prices to break even. In the long term, that could help reaffirm OPEC's dominance of the oil market.
It would also be good news for consumers and oil-importing nations.
The global price plunged $5 to a four-year low of $72.76 a barrel. As recently as June it was around $115.
Oil ministers had come to Thursday's meeting facing two unpalatable choices: Cut their production from 30 million barrels a day in an effort to boost prices and see OPEC's market share fall, or do nothing in hopes of riding out the crisis.
Paring output may not have been very effective because supply from non-OPEC countries, like the U.S., remains high. Also, discipline within the 12-member organization is lax and overproduction by some members would have cut into the effectiveness of any production cut.
In any case, OPEC could have not afforded to scale back production by more than 1 million barrels a day — too little to make a sizable dent in supply.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah Al-Badry suggested all members were on board with the decision to stick to the present output level, telling reporters "the ministers are happy."
"I see no nagging from consumers, no nagging from producers," he told reporters.
In fact, the decision once again appeared to reflect Saudi Arabia's clout over less powerful OPEC rivals.
By opposing an output cut, Saudi Arabia appears to be hoping to drive prices below the level at which shale oil production is economical. Experts say shale oil production turns too costly at the $60 a barrel level.
"When it comes to the raw decision-making, that is left to the unofficial leader, Saudi Arabia," said Alfa Energy chairman John Hall.
Accounting for about a third of OPEC output, the Saudis can weather lower prices because their coffers are well-padded and its production costs are relatively low.
But poorer OPEC members like Venezuela and Nigeria need levels close to $100 or above to fund national budgets. Saudi rival Iran is suffering, too, with the price drop adding to huge revenue losses due to sanctions on its crude sales imposed over its nuclear program.
If sanctions were to be lifted as part of a nuclear agreement next year, Iran still would need prices close to $140 a barrel to finance the government budget. Crude export revenues finance more than 50 percent of the government's outlays.
In the case of Venezuela, the International Monetary Fund says it needs to sell oil at around $120 a barrel to avoid the threat of national bankruptcy. Bank of America estimates that for every dollar that oil prices drop, the state loses $770 million in net revenue over a year. That puts revenue $12 billion a year below peak levels even if current prices don't fall further.
Nigeria also needs a stronger market to flourish. Analysts say the government has organized its 2015 budget around an oil price of $78 a barrel based on production of 2.4 million barrels a day — but the country is pumping only about 2 million barrels a day.
Angola, Ecuador and other OPEC members with limited production may also suffer — but not so Saudi Arabia's wealthy allies Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said the "OPEC decision was not entirely what we wanted," and analysts suggested that others share that view.
"I think you're going to see additional tension between the OPEC ranks," said Jamie Webster, senior director of crude oil markets at IHS consultants.

Ferguson protesters move from streets to stores on Black Friday

Protester Johnetta Elzie.


 Chenjerai Kumanyika

Dozens of protesters interrupted holiday shopping in the St. Louis area late Thursday and early Friday as part of the ongoing reaction to a grand jury's decision to not indict the Ferguson police officer who fatally shot Michael Brown this past August. 
Protester Johnetta Elzie, who who had been tweeting and posting videos of the demonstrations, told the Associated Press that the group went to a Wal-Mart and Target in Brentwood, two Wal-Marts in St. Charles and one Wal-Mart in Manchester. KTVI-TV reported that in the suburbs of Maplewood and Kirkwood, several police cars and some National Guard vehicles patrolled Wal-Mart stores in case of protests. 
Protesters spent a few minutes at each store, shouting inside. Officer in at least one store ordered them to leave. There was no immediate word of any arrests.
At the Manchester Wal-Mart, about two dozen people chanted "no justice, no peace, no racist police" and "no more Black Friday" after officers warned that protesters risked arrest if they didn't move at least 50 feet from the store's entrance, then began advancing in unison toward the protesters until they were moved further into the parking lot.
The mostly black group of protesters chanted in the faces of the officers -- most of whom were white -- as shoppers looked on.
"We want to really let the world know that it is no longer business as usual," said Chenjerai Kumanyika an assistant professor at Clemson University. He added although part of the aim in disrupting Black Friday was to call attention to disagreement with the grand jury's decision and the way the case was handled, Kumanyika said it was also to highlight other forms of injustice.
"Capitalism is one of many systems of oppression," he said as the group cleared out of the parking lot.
Ferguson itself was quiet overnight as the Thanksgiving holiday put a break on the protests that had rocked the town over the previous three nights. No police officers or Missouri National Guard members stood sentry outside the Ferguson police station, which had been a nexus for protesters since Monday night's announcement that officer Darren Wilson would not be indicted. Early Friday, St. Louis County Police said no arrests had been made overnight. 
On a downtown street, beneath a lighted "Season's Greetings" garland, three children used paintbrushes to decorate the plywood covering many storefront windows that was put up to foil potential vandals. One quoted from "The Lorax" by Dr. Seuss: "Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better, it's not."
"We thought we'd do what we could to make it a little more attractive and then try to bring the kids into it and get them involved in making the businesses appear a little less scary, depressing," said Leah Bailey, as her 7-year-old son Dennis climbed a ladder to finish an orange dragon.
Several hours after dark, a few people continued painting, but there was no visible protest activity. National Guard troops occasionally patrolled the area and surrounding neighborhoods in vehicles and on foot.
Greater St. Mark Family Church sits blocks from where several stores went up in flames after the grand jury announcement. A handful of people listened to the Rev. Tommie Pierson preach Thursday that the destruction and chaos was by "a small group of out-of-control people out there."
"They don't represent the community, they don't represent the mood nor the feelings of the community," Pierson said. "I would imagine if you talked to them, they probably don't even live here. So, we don't want to be defined by what they did."
In downtown St. Louis, a group gathered near Busch Stadium for what organizer Paul Byrd called a "pro-community" car rally meant to be peaceful and counter the recent Ferguson violence he suggested has tarnished the region's image.
Byrd, a 45-year-old construction worker from Imperial, Missouri, declined to say whether he supported Wilson but noted, "I totally support police officers." The cruise was escorted by a city police vehicle; no protesters showed up. 

Maybe some who read this blog should email or give Mr. Kumanyika a call and ask him how he can spare so much time protesting, when he is getting paid to teach.

Kumanyika, Chenjerai
Assistant Professor
Email: kkumany@clemson.edu
Office: 414 Strode
Phone: 864-656-1567





Democratic Party divides come to forefront following midterm defeat


Tensions within the Democratic Party over policy and strategy have begun to surface after a midterm defeat that saw the party lose control of the Senate after eight years and cede more seats to Republicans in the House of Representatives. 
The most glaring example came Tuesday, when Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-NY, criticized President Barack Obama over the 2010 health care overhaul. Schumer said the party should have focused on helping more of the middle class than the uninsured, whom he called “a small percentage of the electorate." Schumer added that ObamaCare was just one of a "cascade of issues" that the White House had bungled, a list that included the scandal over wait times at VA hospitals and responding to the threat of the Ebola virus. 
Schumer's remarks drew sharp criticism from former White House staffers, with former Obama campaign manager David Axelrod telling the Wall Street Journal "If your calculus is solely how to win elections, and that is your abiding principle, it leads you to Sen. Schumer’s position. But that’s precisely why big, difficult problems often don’t get addressed in Washington, and why people have become so cynical about that town and its politics."
On that same Tuesday, the White House surprised Democratic leaders in the Senate by threatening to veto a tax package negotiated by both parties. The White House statement said the deal would help "well-connected corporations while neglecting working families" because it did not include a proposal backed by liberals to make tax credits for the working poor permanent. 
Ahead of the 2016 presidential race, Democrats find themselves at odds over what economic message to present to voters. Worried that they lacked a compelling position in the midterms, the party is split over whether to advance a centrist message or a more populist economic argument that casts everyday families as victims of overly powerful corporations and benighted government policies.
“You’re going to get a fight within the Democratic Party," Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-NY, told the Journal, adding that what he called "a substantial disagreement was looming between the progressive and centrist wings of the part, the latter of whom fear that liberal economic policy proposals are unpalatable to most voters.
In contrast to the rifts so prominent in the Republican Party, Democratic infighting has largely been out of public view since Obama was elected president in 2008. But following the defeats earlier this month, the strife broke into the open. The Wednesday after the election, Harry Krone, chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., criticized President Obama in The Washington Post for not transferring millions of dollars in party funds to struggling campaigns. 
Another flashpoint between the White House and congressional Democrats has been immigration, with House Democrats criticizing Obama for delaying the timing of his executive orders on immigration until after the midterm elections in what they saw as a misguided effort to save vulnerable senators. As a result, they believe, the delay hurt turnout among Hispanics and contributed to Republicans expanding control of the House by at least 10 seats.

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