Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Hillary Clinton Cartoon


Cruz shrugs off Trump attacks in winning Iowa, but The Donald is hardly done


In the end, Iowa was a must-win state for Ted Cruz, and he pulled it out despite weeks of withering attacks from Donald Trump.
For Cruz, projecting the winner by Fox News and other networks, capturing the caucuses here is a bigger victory than just beating Trump by a few thousand votes. The press and the Republican power brokers originally viewed him as a middle-tier guy, a bomb-thrower in Washington, and not a charming personality to boot.
He stuck to his strategy of hard-line conservatism, courting evangelicals, bashing the media—and parrying Trump’s assaults better than any other Republican candidate.

Cruz appeared to be slipping in recent weeks as Trump questioned his Canadian birth and called him a nasty guy, and he had his worst debate in last week’s Fox faceoff in Iowa. But he had a resilient base of support in this state.

For Trump, the loss clearly dents his shield of invulnerability. But a billionaire mocked by much of the establishment showed he could mount a competitive race, he's far stronger in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and he has all the money he needs. Perhaps a dose of humility will be good for him.

It’s hard to know whether Trump skipping the Fox debate was a factor among late deciders, or his big-rallies-over-county-fairs approach. We do know that Cruz had a much stronger ground game, and with Iowa’s complicated caucuses, that still matters.

Rubio’s surprisingly strong third-place finish, which put him close to Trump, vindicates his strategy of trying to emerge as the establishment alternative. The Florida senator got traction at just the right time, brilliantly managed the expectations game, and comes out of Iowa (where he didn't play that hard) firmly in the top tier with Trump and Cruz, heading into better states for him.

But before we get completely swept away by the media hype, Iowa, with its strong evangelical vote, is a unique battleground. Four of the last GOP winners in Iowa have failed to win the nomination. In just eight days, Trump could be buoyed by a huge victory in New Hampshire. The Iowa afterglow is intense, but short-lived.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton was leading Bernie Sanders by an extraordinarily thin margin, possibly avoiding the possibility of an 0-for-2 start in the state that crushed her hopes against Barack Obama. But let’s be honest: The race shouldn’t even be close. A former first lady, a former secretary of State, a Clinton, should clobber a 74-year-old socialist who hadn’t even been a member of the Democratic Party. But she is an establishment candidate in an anti-establishment year. Whatever the final numbers, this is a moral victory for Sanders and certification of his grass-roots appeal.

What’s striking among Republicans is how the last two Iowa winners, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, finished below 2 percent, along with once-hot contender Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie, who is betting his campaign on New Hampshire.
The early signs were good for Trump, as one wave of Fox entrance polls showed Trump barely trailing Cruz among evangelical Christians, Iowa’s key voting bloc, 26 to 24 percent—with Rubio at 21 percent. Those voters are Cruz’s key constituency, and perhaps he lost some crucial supporters to Ben Carson, who hung in at about 10 percent.
The entrance polls showed Trump dominating among voters whose most important quality was a candidate who “tells it like it is.” Cruz did best among voters seeking a candidate who “shares my values.” Rubio was strongest as the candidate who “can win in November.”
Demographically, Trump did best among voters with a high school education or less, while Rubio edged Cruz among college graduates and those who did postgraduate study. Cruz, not surprisingly, did best among very conservative voters, Trump scored highest with moderate voters, and Trump and Rubio were essentially tied among somewhat conservative voters.
On the Democratic side, according to those entrance polls, Hillary Clinton dominated among voters over 65, while Bernie Sanders clobbered her in the 17-to-29 age group.
Sanders decimated the former first lady among those most interested in an “honest and trustworthy” candidate and one who “cares about people like me.” Clinton creamed him for having “the right experience” and as someone who “can win in November.”

Trump fever has broken. Cruz out-organized him. Here's what's next


Imagine trying to explain America’s presidential selection process to an extraterrestrial.
The nation’s two major political parties entrust Iowa with beginning the elimination process – that one Midwestern state representing just 1 percent of the nation’s population, with an electorate not reflective of America writ large (Iowa’s population is whiter, more Protestant and decidedly less black and Hispanic than the rest of the country).
Moreover, it’s not much of a political bellwether. Jimmy Carter won the Democratic caucuses in 1976, as did Barack Obama in 2008. In modern times, George W. Bush is the lone Republican to parlay a caucus win into the presidency.
Yet here we are in 2016, once again giving this under-populated state an oversized role in the nation’s future.
Some observations about what transpired in Iowa, on the Republican side, on Monday night:
Mister Trump, Meet Mister Tyson. The former boxer is credited with saying that “everyone has a plan ‘til they get punched in the mouth.”
On Monday night, Trump was on the receiving end of said punch.
Yes, the turnout turned out to be a record high, as Trump had promised. But not all the newcomers flocked in his direction, as he also prophesized.
According to Fox News entrance polls, the late-deciders broke first to Marco Rubio, then Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and then Trump – one reason why Rubio finished a close third (much closer than expected) to the flamboyant developer.
One way to look at Trump’s bad night: going into the caucuses, Trump stood at 28.6 percent in the Real Clear Politics Average. He finished with only 24 percent on Caucus night.
Cruz Was Everything – But Likeable. Cruz organized Iowa like few Republicans ever have – 12,000 volunteers, 1,000 precincts, a pair of old college dorms rented and renamed “Camp Cruz” to house that army. Unlike Trump’s calculation that star power was an irresistible force, it was sweat equity that paid off: Cruz bumped his RCP average by about 4 points.
Credit Cruz with standing his ground: he didn’t back down on opposing the ethanol subsidy. He didn’t deviate from his game plan of courting evangelicals.
However, the game plan wasn’t glitch-free: three out of five GOP caucus-goers identified as evangelicals in this year’s Republican caucuses – a higher percentage than in 2012. Yet, per the Fox News entrance polls, this portion of the vote didn’t break as heavily for Cruz as anticipated.
This suggests a core problem for Cruz moving forward: he’s bright, organized and a methodical strategist. But he’s just not likeable beyond that base of religious and constitutional voters. He’ll be hard-pressed to finish second in New Hampshire, where the electorate is less devoutly Protestant and less conservative – and Trump may be particularly vengeful.
The Rubio Expectations Game. One other way the Iowa night seem alien to alien visitors: the ability for a non-winner to claim victory.  And In 2016, that’s Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, whose surprisingly strong third-place finish confirms him as the biggest fish in the so-called “establishment lane.”
Rubio was a non-factor in Iowa as recently as a few weeks ago. But then he worked the state in person, invested heavily late in television  on the eve of the vote, and profited handsomely from the one-fifth of the GOP voters for whom electability was the prime concern.
Armchair quarterbacks will debate how much Rubio benefitted from Trump’s debate snub (didn’t work for Reagan in 1980, maybe also backfired on The Donald in 2016) plus Cruz’s controversial mailer.
Rubio won the expectations game. Let’s see if that translates into votes in New Hampshire and, more immediately, an influx of cash as donors contrast his over-performance to the anemic showing of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (at 2 percent, just a percentage point behind Jeb Bush).
Left Behind. Dr. Ben Carson finished fourth – a better showing than he might have anticipated a month ago when his campaign cratered.
Carson’s free-fall led to Cruz’s December surge; Carson’s slight recovery on Monday night – his core being evangelicals – likely kept Cruz from a bigger win.
To the adage that elections reflect change and turnover: Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won the last two GOP caucuses. On Monday night, neither cracked 3 percent. Huckabee quickly put his campaign on hiatus; Santorum likely won’t be far behind.
Change Gives Us . . . Continuity. For all the talk these past few months of how Iowa would be an opening salvo in a Trump-fueled revolution, reality proved otherwise.
Yes, a historically large GOP electorate struck a blow against Washington experience: Cruz, Trump and Rubio combined have all of ten years in federal government between them; they cornered three-fourth of Iowa’s vote.
However, the Iowa results were also a vote for more of the same.
Since 1988, the GOP caucuses have followed a familiar pattern – Iowans siding with a Republican who embodied the concept of “one of us.” Bob Dole, a son of Kansas, was a fellow Midwesterner. He was Iowa’s winner in 1988 and 1996. George W. Bush, Huckabee and Santorum all ran campaigns in which their personal faith and public policy ideas were DNA strands.
Given the choice of voting for Cruz, who worked the evangelic crowd in no uncertain terms (“Father God, Please . . . Awaken the Body of Christ”), Iowans went with the purer social conservative – not the wealthy guy from New York running as a born-again conservative, trying to win over the Midwestern crowd with his celebrity persona and flashy plane.
In the end, Cruz simply out-organized and out-thought Trump. Which is why Trump Fever is over – at least, until next week’s vote.   

Hillary, Bernie Race






IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY SAYS CLINTON AHEAD OF SANDERS IN STATE DELEGATE COUNT WITH ONE PRECINCT OUTSTANDING; CLINTON NOT FORMALLY DECLARED WINNER

In a close race with Sanders, the Hillary campaign seemed a bit shell-shocked as a winner has yet to be declared in Iowa.
As Tom Harkin was warming up the crowd and getting ready for speeches from Bill and Chelsea Clinton, he seemed shocked to see Hillary take the stage.
Hillary marched up to the podium with Bill and Chelsea and was only one to speak before leaving the Iowa stage. Hillary never declares victory – only saying she was “breathing a big sigh of relief,” as if she won.
The Clintons skipped a rope line of screaming fans and scampered off into the night.

Cruz wins Iowa GOP caucuses; Clinton, Sanders race too close to call




Texas Sen. Ted Cruz swept to victory over Donald Trump in Iowa’s Republican caucuses Monday night — with Marco Rubio hard on his heels with a re-energized campaign — while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were locked in a virtual dead heat in the Democratic contest.
With all but 10 precincts reporting in the Democratic race early Tuesday, Clinton had 49.9 percent of the vote, while Sanders had 49.6 percent.
Iowa Democratic Party officials said early Tuesday that they were still gathering results from some precincts where those in charge failed to report results in a timely manner.
In at least three precincts, the Democratic outcome was so close that party officials ordered a coin toss to determine which candidate should receive an extra county convention delegate, a longstanding tiebreaking method. The Des Moines Register reported that Clinton won all three coin flips at precincts in Des Moines, Davenport, and Ames.

Regardless of the final outcome, the result reflected a strong showing for Sanders, who had trailed Clinton by nearly 30 points over the summer. Sanders said the results sent a “profound message” to the media and political establishment.
Cruz, too, cast his victory as a message to the establishment.
“Tonight is a victory for the grassroots. Tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation,” Cruz told cheering supporters.
Speaking to supporters at Drake University, Clinton still sounded optimistic about the final result but did not declare victory outright.
“As I stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief, thank you Iowa. I want you to know that I’ll keep standing up for you, keep fighting for you. Join me. Let’s go win that nomination,” she said.
Early Tuesday, Clinton campaign spokesman Brian Fallon declared victory of sorts, saying, "we believe strongly that we won tonight." Spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri added, "We feel like we have great momentum going into [the] New Hampshire [primary Feb. 9]. This was a very hard fought state."
Sanders noted that Iowa's 44 Democratic national convention delegates would be distributed almost evenly between the two candidates. The Associated Press reported that Clinton had captured at least 22 delegates to Sanders' 21, with one left to be decided.
Sanders touched on familiar themes during his speech, saying his campaign was about the people and “not billionaires buying elections.”
In the Republican campaign, Cruz fought hard in recent weeks to make up lost ground in the polls and was helped in part by a sophisticated ground operation. He also hammered Trump for his decision to skip last week's Republican debate.
While Trump finished second in the Hawkeye State, Florida Sen. Rubio finished a very close third with a stronger-than-expected showing in the Hawkeye State, helped in part by late-deciders.
His campaign also suggested Trump’s debate boycott helped change the dynamic in the race.
With all but one precinct reporting, Cruz had 28 percent, Trump had 24 percent and Rubio had 23 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson placed fourth in the race, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul placed fifth.
An energized Rubio touted the results at a post-caucus rally.
“For months they told us we had no chance. … They told me I needed to wait my turn,” Rubio said. “But tonight … here in Iowa, the people in this great state sent a very clear message. After seven years of Barack Obama, we are not waiting any longer to take our country back.”
Trump, for his part, argued he beat initial expectations by placing second and predicted he'd still win in New Hampshire next week.
“We will go on to get the Republican nomination, and we will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there,” he said. He closed his speech by saying: "I think I might come here and buy a farm, I love it.”
Republicans voted by private ballot. The state's 30 Republican delegates are awarded proportionally based on the vote, with at least eight delegates going to Cruz, seven to Trump and six to Rubio.
Two candidates dropped their bids after poor showings. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, who was pulling in about 1 percent support, suspended his Democratic campaign Monday night. And on the GOP side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee also suspended his campaign.
Interest and turnout appeared to be high on both sides. Republican officials said there were more than 180,000 people at Monday's GOP caucuses, up from the previous high of about 121,000 in 2012. Several caucus sites remained open longer to accommodate long lines; some even ran out of registration forms or ballots.
Cruz rose from the middle of the Republican pack last year to overtake Trump on Monday. His victory disrupts Trump's front-runner narrative and could jolt the GOP race, where candidates have struggled for months to arrest Trump’s rise.
According to entrance polling of Republican caucus-goers conducted by Fox News, Cruz won by garnering the support of evangelical Christians and those who wanted a candidate who shares their values. Evangelical Christians made up 62 percent of Republican caucus-goers -- up from 56 percent in 2012 -- and of those, 33 percent backed the Texas senator.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders overwhelmed Clinton among caucus-goers under 30, a group that he won 84 percent to 14 percent. However, that constituency only made up 18 percent of all Democratic caucus-goers.
On the other hand, 55 percent of all Democratic caucus-goers said they wanted the next president to continue Barack Obama's policies. Clinton won the support of 68 percent of that constituency.
The Iowa caucuses have had a mixed record in recent cycles, particularly on the Republican side, in picking the eventual nominees.
The GOP caucus winners in 2008 and 2012 were Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, respectively, neither of whom won the nomination.
Eight years ago, though, then-Sen. Barack Obama’s Iowa win in the Democratic race helped set him on the trajectory to claim first his party’s nomination, then the presidency.

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