We’ve been saying for some time now that Kamala Harris’s honeymoon period in the polls would end, and for a while now, we’ve seen her lead shrink in the polling averages and some poor polling for Kamala in battleground states. But a new poll from the New York Times/Siena College shows Trump ahead nationally again. And you can bet the left is flipping out about it. "To me, the result is a bit surprising," writes Nate Cohn of the New York Times, before trying his best to quell panic from the left. "It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls." Cohn then acknowledges what many of us hawkishly monitoring polls have noticed: there has been a dramatic decline in new polling recently.
But, even Cohn can't deny that things are looking better for Trump. "There’s no way to know whether the Times/Siena poll is too favorable for Mr. Trump. We never know whether the polls are 'right' until the votes are counted," he writes. "But the poll nonetheless finds that he has significant advantages in this election — and they might just be enough to put him over the top." Cohn also acknowledges that Trump has a clear advantage on the issues voters care about most. When asked to compare him with Kamala Harris on their top concerns, Trump leads by five points. Voters also see him as occupying a more balanced political position, with nearly half saying he’s not too far left or right, while a significant portion believes Harris is too far to the left. On top of that, despite Kamala branding her candidacy as a "new way forward," Cohn says that Trump, not Kamala, is "seen as the change candidate in a nation that wants change."
In the poll, only 40% of likely voters view Kamala Harris as representing "change," while 55% see her as offering "more of the same." In contrast, 61% of voters perceive Donald Trump as representing "change," with just 34% saying he embodies "more of the same." Cohn tries hard to give Democrats hope, but there's no way to spin this poll as anything but bad news for Kamala Harris. |
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