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Insider vs. Outsider Matchup Finds Clinton, Trump Near Even

 

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump run essentially evenly among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup for president in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, testament to the strength of party loyalty as well as to Trump’s anti-establishment profile and anti-immigration views.

The hypothetical contest stands at 46-43 percent, Clinton-Trump, a gap that's within the survey's margin of sampling error. That compares to a clear Clinton lead among all adults, 51-39 percent, indicating her broad support in groups that are less apt to be registered to vote, such as young adults and racial and ethnic minorities.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

The close result in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, says as much about partisanship as it does about the candidates. Registered voters divide 45-40 percent between identifying themselves as Democrats, or leaning that way, vs. Republicans or GOP leaners. And 82 percent of leaned Democrats say they’d support Clinton, while 76 percent of leaned Republicans say they'd back Trump, were they the party nominees.

That said, Trump also is tapping factors including discontent with the political system, anti-immigration attitudes and dissatisfaction with the Obama administration. He leads Clinton by a broad 64-25 percent among registered voters who prefer a candidate from outside the political establishment and by 49-38 percent among those who strongly distrust politicians.
Trump also leads Clinton by 73-14 percent among those who favor his controversial views on immigration, 74-13 percent among those who disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, 68-22 percent among political conservatives and 52-36 percent among whites, a broadly pro-GOP group in recent years. (They favored Mitt Romney over Obama by 20 percentage points in 2012.) Among evangelical white Protestants, a core GOP group, Trump leads Clinton by 67-22 percent.
This analysis is the first slice of a new ABC/Post poll on the 2016 election. More detailed results on the primaries, views of candidate attributes and attitudes about the political system overall will be released Monday morning.
There are some important provisos in evaluating these results. Early polls are not predictive. They seek to measure preferences if the election were today, but the election is not today, and if it were, voters would have had a full campaign’s worth of information on which to base their choices – including whether to vote in the first place. Campaigns clearly do matter; front-runners have failed in past elections and single-digit candidates have surged to victory. Polls at this stage, then, are best used to understand attitude formation, not eventual election choices.
Statistical analysis shows which factors best predict Clinton vs. Trump preferences, holding all else equal. The biggest by far is whether or not registered voters support Trump’s positions on immigration. That’s followed by partisanship, preferring experience vs. a political outsider, ideology, race and gender.

Groups

Notably, in the general election matchup, Trump leads by 52-37 percent among men, while Clinton leads by 55-34 percent among women. Fifty-three percent of women in this survey say they're Democrats or lean that way, compared with 36 percent of men.
The results produce a vast 36-point gender gap -– Trump +15 points among men, Clinton +21 among women. The average in general election exit polls since 1976 has been 13 points; the biggest was 22 points in the Gore-Bush contest of 2000. The Clinton-Trump gender gap is more than twice as big as the Clinton-Jeb Bush gender gap in an ABC/Post poll in July, presumably reflecting Trump's controversial remarks about women.
Clinton's support among women is based on her overwhelming backing from college-educated women, 68-20 percent. By contrast, Trump leads Clinton by a broad 55-34 percent among men who aren't college graduates. He runs about evenly with Clinton among women without a college degree and among men who've graduated from college.
The education gap, like the gender gap, is outsized. In exit polls since 1980, there has been little difference in candidate support among those with a college degree vs. non-graduates, an average of just 2 points; the biggest gap was 11 points in 1996, when Bill Clinton's support was higher among non-grads (+14 points) than among college graduates (+3 points). In the Clinton-Trump matchup, there's a vast 35-point gap; it's 57-31 percent, Clinton-Trump, among those with a college degree, vs. 49-40 percent, Trump-Clinton, among those without one. Indeed, even among college-educated leaned Republicans, Trump’s support slips to 67 percent, vs. 80 percent among those without a degree.
This reflects a challenge in Trump's support profile; while he does much better with less-educated registered voters, they're less likely actually to vote.
At the same time, Trump has a 20-point lead over Clinton among senior citizens, 55-35 percent, while Clinton has an even broader advantage among adults under 30, 63-27 percent. In this case it's Trump’s group that has a higher propensity to vote.
Clinton also does vastly better than Trump among nonwhites, 72-19 percent; they’re a core Democratic group and a growing share of the electorate. And there's a strong regional effect, with much better results for Clinton in the Northeast and West, with Trump ahead in the Midwest and South. Again, it's largely partisanship that leads the way.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 7-10, 2015, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, including 821 registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points for the full sample and 4.0 for registered voters, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 33-22-35 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, among all adults, and 34-25-33 percent among registered voters.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

Congress now turns to spending bill to keep government open, avoiding shutdown over Planned Parenthood

With the Iran nuclear deal debate essentially over, Congress now turns to several other pressing issues, particularly agreeing on a temporary spending bill to avoid a partial government shutdown on Oct. 1.
Leaders of the Republican-controlled Congress have vowed to avoid an unpopular government shutdown. But the party’s most conservative caucus could still create problems, especially if members attempt to link the spending bill to de-funding Planned Parenthood.
With Congress being officially in session just a handful of days before the potential shutdown deadline, GOP leaders haven't said how they will handle conservatives' demands while also rounding up enough votes to prevent a shutdown.
Conservatives’ longstanding opposition to Planned Parenthood and abortion was re-ignited this summer by the release of secretly recorded videos showing group officials offhandedly discussing how they sometimes provide tissue from aborted fetuses for medical researchers.
So efforts to de-fund the group will likely help the Republicans Party secure votes from its base in the 2016 presidential election cycle. But more moderate and independent voters would likely blame Republicans for a shutdown, as they have in the past.
Such a bill probably would pass the GOP-run House. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., recently acknowledged that he lacks the votes in his chamber and said President Obama would veto it anyway.
The public mostly blamed Republicans in 2013 when a partial shutdown lasted 16 days after they tried dismantling Obama's health care law in exchange for keeping agencies open.
"Having charged up the hill once and been shot down, why would you want to do that again?" said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., an ally of House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio. "I'm pretty convinced we're not going to shut down the government."
Planned Parenthood gets more than $500 million in federal and state funds annually, virtually none of which can be used for abortions, and says it's done nothing wrong. 
Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., has collected 31 signatures from conservative lawmakers pledging to oppose any bill funding government if it includes money for Planned Parenthood.
And Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, a presidential contender, is circulating a comparable letter. Many of the other GOP presidential contenders are also urging Congress to slash Planned Parenthood's funds.
But GOP aides say Cruz has won little support among Senate Republicans. 
Congressional leaders' immediate problem is Mulvaney. If his group of 31 holds and Boehner wants to pass a bill preventing a shutdown and funding Planned Parenthood, he'd need Democratic votes.
Boehner needed and got Democratic backing to end the 2013 shutdown and a brief closure this year of the Homeland Security Department in an immigration fight with Obama.
But no leader likes to rely on the other party to pass crucial legislation.
Boehner spokesman Kevin Smith said the speaker "is focused on ensuring that our team is exposing Planned Parenthood's barbaric methods to the world, saving more babies" and that he "is not going anywhere."
It's unclear if an effort to remove Boehner would succeed, but it would be embarrassing.
Instead of a fall shutdown, GOP leaders will likely seek to temporarily finance government and perhaps set up a Christmas showdown over 2016 spending and Planned Parenthood.
Meanwhile, the House plans votes next week on bills by Rep. Diane Black, R-Tenn., halting Planned Parenthood's federal funds for a year and by Franks protecting infants born alive during abortions. Both would likely pass the House but face long Senate odds.
The Senate is expected to vote this month on a measure by Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a presidential hopeful, barring most late-term abortions. It faces likely defeat.
A vote on another bill cutting off Planned Parenthood's money could come later this year.
Though Obama has enough votes to secure the Iran deal, some Republicans are vowing to continue to block the effort.
Other pending issues before Congress include how to avoid sequester, the automatic budget cuts that are the result of a hard-fought deal Obama signed in 2011 and that hit the Defense Department the hardest.
Members will also try to increase the government's borrowing authority and avoid a first-ever federal default; extend roughly 50 tax breaks; pass a defense policy bill that Obama has threatened to veto; renew the Federal Aviation Administration's authority to spend money and finally pass a long-term highway funding bill.
Congress was working under a late-October deadline for transportation.
However, the Transportation Department said earlier this month that the Highway Trust Fund has enough money to pay for projects into next year.

Cowboys and the Giants.

The Dallas Cowboys had a dramatic, intense win in the closing seconds over the New York Giants, and were greeted by Dez Bryant hopping around on one foot outside the locker room to congratulate them. As it turns out, all Bryant will be doing for a while is cheerleading.

Bryant, by far the team's best weapon for quarterback Tony Romo, suffered a broken bone in his foot according to Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. Jones said Bryant is going to miss four-to-six weeks, Yahoo's Charles Robinson reported.

Bryant kept it positive after the game, giving praise to quarterback Tony Romo, who wears No. 9 and led a last-minute, game-winning drive.

Robinson also reported that rookie defensive end Randy Gregory has a high ankle sprain that will keep him out four-to-six weeks.
Bryant's loss in particular is a big blow to a team that has Super Bowl hopes. Terrance Williams becomes the Cowboys' top receiver, though that's a big step up for him. The Cowboys will have to lean even more heavily on their run game, which got just 80 yards on 23 attempts in its first game without DeMarco Murray.

The Cowboys effectively chose Bryant over Murray this offseason, because elite receivers like Bryant are hard to find. Bryant signed a five-year, $70 million deal this offseason after Dallas gave him the franchise tag.

Bryant had 56 touchdowns in his first five seasons, and the Cowboys can't replace his production. But they'll have to figure it out until sometime in October when Bryant can return.

Germany institutes border controls along Austria frontier in effort to cope with refugee surge

Look and Sound Familiar?

Germany announced Sunday that it was reintroducing document checks along its border with Austria and temporarily halted trains between the two countries in a bid to limit the influx of refugees from the Middle East, Asia, and Africa to Europe's largest economy.
The checks were leading to traffic jams on highways at the border Monday morning. Authorities in Bavaria said there was a roughly 2-mile backup Monday on the A8 highway at Bad Reichenhall, near the Austrian city of Salzburg, news agency dpa reported. Regional broadcaster Bayerischer Rundfunk reported a nearly 4-mile jam on the A3 highway near Passau.
A spokeswoman for Germany's national railway told the Associated Press early Monday that it has resumed train services from Austria after authorities ordered a temporary halt on Sunday evening. However, the main Salzburg-Munich line initially remained closed between the Austrian city of Salzburg and the German border town of Freilassing because there were people on the track.
In all, service was suspended for approximately 12 hours.
Germany has been the final destination for many refugees, who have either traveled overland, via Turkey and the Balkans; or braved the dangerous Mediterranean Sea crossing to Italy or Greece. The German government has estimated it would receive up to 800,000 refugees this year and has indicated it could take hundreds of thousands more per year indefinitely.
Germany and Austria agreed over a week ago to let in thousands of refugees who had gathered in Hungary, saying it was a one-time measure to ease an emergency. Still, the influx has continued.

More on this...

• Thousands of refugees heading to Europe despite heavy rain

However, Sunday's actions appear to show that even Germany is at risk of being overwhelmed by the sheer numbers trying to enter the country. On Saturday, 13,000 people crossed into Germany from Austria, and another 3,000 crossed the border Sunday morning before the border checks were implemented.
In introducing the measures Sunday, German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere said: "The aim of these measures is to limit the current inflows to Germany and to return to orderly procedures when people enter the country ... The great willingness to help that Germany has shown in recent weeks - by full-time employees and especially by the many thousands of volunteers - must not be overstrained."
Overnight Sunday, Sky News reported that German border police seized 18 cars from eight different countries at the border crossing near the Bavarian town of Passau. Thirty suspected people traffickers were detained and 60 refugees taken to a nearby holding center.
Six of the vehicles were registered in Germany, five from Sweden, one from the Netherlands, one from Hungary, two from France, one from Poland, one from Austria and one from Bulgaria.
In Munich, the main point of entry into Germany from Austria, city officials said their capacity to house the newcomers arriving from Hungary via Austria is being stretched to the limit. Federal police spokesman Simon Hegewald said more than 700 people fleeing their homelands have arrived at the city's main station on Sunday morning after a total of 12,200 refugees came to the city on Sunday.
In response to Germany's decision, Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka ordered more police to the Austrian-Czech border ""to ensure that laws and rules inside the Schengen zone are not violated."
The "Schengen zone' refers to the Schengen Agreement, which calls for the abolition of internal borders and the introduction of a single external E.U. border. The agreement also stipulates that those wishing to seek asylum should do so in the country where they first enter the E.U., contrary to the wishes of the refugees heading to Germany and Austria via other E.U. nations.
However, the treaty also provides for its suspension for reasons of "public policy or national security".
European Union interior ministers were due to meet in Brussels Monday for emergency talks in an effort to narrow a yawning divide over how to share responsibility for thousands of refugees arriving daily and ease the burden on frontline states. E.U. president Jean-Claude Juncker called last week for members of the 28-nation bloc to resettle 160,000 refugees over the next two years. The ministers were expected confirm the distribution of an initial 40,000 refugees, but this scheme was conceived in May and some nations still do not plan to take in their share before year's end.