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Fox News Poll: Race for Congress tightens, confidence in Obama low

Enthusiasm in the midterm elections remains in the Republicans’ favor -- but the spread has significantly narrowed, according to a new Fox News national poll. 
Among likely voters, 45 percent of Republicans are “extremely” interested compared to 41 percent of Democrats. Two weeks ago, the GOP was up 15 points on that question.
Party loyalty is slightly in the Democrats’ favor, as more Democrats (89 percent) than Republicans (87 percent) plan to vote for their party’s candidate.  This makes more of a difference than one might expect, because more voters identify as Democrat than Republican. 
Click here for the poll results.
What’s the net result? For one thing, a further tightening of the generic congressional ballot that was already within the margin of error: 45 percent of likely voters favor the Democratic candidate in their House district and 44 percent back the Republican. This represents a four-point shift from two weeks ago, when the Republican candidate was up by three among likely voters (45-42 percent). 
It’s difficult to make a direct connection between generic vote results and individual races. 
There was a smaller shift on which party voters prefer control the U.S. Senate: likely voters want Republicans to win control by 47-45 percent. Two weeks ago it was 47-43 percent. 
Meanwhile, 62 percent of American voters lack confidence in President Obama’s leadership.  That includes 28 percent who say they are losing confidence, and 34 percent who never had confidence. 
The new Fox News national poll released Tuesday also finds that one week before Election Day, voters:
- Would vote against the president’s policies if they were on the ballot.
- Think it would be good if every member of Congress got the boot.
- Feel the economy is still in bad shape, but not quite as bad as before the 2010 midterm.
- Think Republican control of the U.S. Senate would be a net positive.
Thirty percent of Democrats don’t have confidence in their president:  six percent never had confidence, while another one in four -- 24 percent -- are losing confidence.
Among independents, 19 percent have confidence in Obama, while 75 percent either never had (34 percent) or are losing confidence (41 percent). 
Overall, 36 percent are confident in Obama’s leadership.
In addition, the president’s job rating has been in negative territory for 18 months straight -- and remains there today:  41 percent of voters approve, while 54 percent disapprove. 
A 59-percent majority says the Obama administration has not been “competent and effective” in managing the government (39 percent say it has).
And by a 58-36 percent margin, a majority would vote against Obama and his policies if they were on the ballot this year.  That includes 21 percent of Democrats and 74 percent of independents.
Frustration with the federal government remains high.  Just three percent of voters feel enthusiastic about the way the government is working.  Nearly eight times that many -- 23 percent -- are angry.  Twenty-five percent were angry before the 2010 midterms. 
Another 25 percent feel satisfied with how the government is working, up from 22 percent in 2010.  Forty-six percent are dissatisfied, down from a 51-percent majority four years ago. 
Congressional Voting
Drilling deeper into the congressional election numbers, women are more likely to back the Democratic candidate in their district by an 11 percentage-point margin, while men are more likely to back the Republican by 10 points. 
Among likely voters, independents back the Republican on the ballot question by a 40-25 percent margin.
Seventy-seven percent of likely voters who support the Tea Party movement are backing the Republican candidate.  That’s down from 91 percent in the final Fox News poll before the 2010 midterm election. 
While it’s tough to make a direct connection between the generic vote results and individual congressional races, such a small advantage by one party or the other means little change should be expected to the makeup of Congress. 
For comparison, in the final Fox News poll before the 2010 midterm -- when the GOP gained 63 seats and the majority in the U.S. House -- Republicans were up by 50-37 percent on the generic ballot among likely voters. 
Of course, being in the majority can have its drawbacks when voters are in a mood for change.  Overall, 59 percent say it would be “good for the country” if all the current members of Congress were ousted (including their own House member) and all new people were elected.  That’s up from 47 percent who liked the idea of a fresh start in 2010. 
That 12-point jump is driven by more Democrats (+16 points) and independents (+22 points) now saying all congressional lawmakers should be sent packing than said so in 2010.  Among Republicans, views held mostly steady at about six in 10. 
Despite a majority saying it would be good if all current members were removed from office, nearly half of voters -- 46 percent -- approve of the job their representative is doing.  That’s more than three times as many as the 13 percent that approve of Congress overall.
A bit of a bright spot for incumbents this year is that fewer people are concerned about the future of the country. In 2010, 91 percent were “extremely” (43 percent) or “very” (48 percent) concerned.  Today, 83 percent are concerned (42 percent “extremely” and 41 percent “very”).
If Republicans win control of the U.S. Senate, how would that change things?  Thirty-seven percent of voters think it would be a change for the better, while 28 percent say things would change for the worse.  Another 32 percent don’t expect things to change if the GOP takes the senate, including 23 percent of Republicans. 
In 2010, 37 percent said Republicans winning control of Congress would lead to change for the better, 21 percent said for the worse and 38 percent didn’t expect any real change. 
On the Issues
Views on the economy are ugly, but have improved since 2010. Only 18 percent of voters rate economic conditions positively (1 percent “excellent and 17 percent “good”). However, the number saying the economy is in “poor” condition now stands at just 33 percent. That’s down from 55 percent who felt that way before the 2010 midterm election, and is at its lowest point since October 2007.
Still, voters say the economy is the most important issue facing the country (43 percent).  Less than one in five say the top issue is illegal immigration (17 percent), health care (16 percent) or foreign policy (15 percent). 
And majorities disapprove of Obama’s performance on each of these issues:  56 percent disapprove on the economy, 60 percent on immigration, 57 percent on health care and 57 percent disapprove of how he’s handling foreign policy. 
When asked which party would do a better job handling top issues, the poll finds Democrats have an advantage on “who has your back” (+10 points) and health care (+1 points).  Republicans come out on top on terrorism (+21 points), taxes (+12 percent), foreign policy (+9 points), the economy (+5 points) and illegal immigration (+3 points).
Independents give the edge to Republicans over Democrats on all of the issues tested.
The GOP is seen as better at protecting the country from terrorism by a 52-31 percent margin.  That’s important this election season as three-quarters of voters think ISIS will try to launch an attack on U.S. soil soon (75 percent), and nearly half of voters -- 45 percent -- don’t think the federal government is doing everything it can to prevent it. 
Furthermore, 56 percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of ISIS, and 71 percent say he hasn’t been tough enough on radical Muslim extremists.
Pollpourri
By a 46-26 percent margin, more voters think Obamacare “went too far” than “didn’t go far enough.”  For another 23 percent it’s Goldilocks (“about right”).
Why are unemployment numbers down?  Over half -- 53 percent -- say it’s because people have stopped looking for a job.  Nearly four in 10 believe it’s because the economy is creating new jobs and more jobs are available these days (37 percent).
Most Democrats think the economy is creating new jobs (57 percent), while most Republicans (69 percent) and independents (65 percent) say people have given up. 
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,005 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from October 25-27, 2014. The full poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. For the subgroup of 734 likely voters, the margin of sampling error is also plus or minus 3.5 points.

Medicare agency is focus of insider trading investigations

Employees of the federal agency that oversees Medicare and the federal health exchange website are the focus of three Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigations to determine whether they leaked news about pending health policy decisions that would up in the hands of Wall Street traders.
According to The Wall Street Journal, nearly a dozen officials at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) have spoken to investigators, with some receiving immunity in exchange for their information. 
The Jounal reported that one of the probes is centered on a CMS decision in June 2010 to set coverage limits on a prostate cancer drug made by Dendreon Corp. Official documents and people close to the investigation say that the official in charge of making the decision emailed three colleagues telling them to keep the news secret until a formal announcement could be made. However, investigators say Dendreon shares had dropped 10 percent by the end of the day when the decision was made. By the end of that June, Dendreon's stock price had dropped 26 percent from the start of the month. 
The investigation is also focusing on at least three policy and research firms that may have acted as middlemen for the inside information. The Journal reports that a second investigation, which involves the FBI in addition to the SEC, is focused on whether a firm called Height Securities LLC was informed ahead of schedule about a pending increase in funding for health insurance firms in April 2013. 
One of the firms in question, and the focus of the third investigation, is run by a former CMS employee, David Blaszczak, who has denied using any inside information in preparing reports about what medical products will be paid for under Medicare. 
Late Tuesday, CMS released a statement saying, "[E]mployees undergo regular training on how to appropriately handle this type of sensitive information. We have and will continue to cooperate fully with law enforcement."
The Journal reports that to prove insider trading, prosecutors will have to show that CMS officials relayed non-public, market-moving information to a Wall Street representative in violation of a duty to confidentiality. 
CMS officials have gone on the record to defend the importance of keeping the public informed about medical decisions, which may make it difficult to pursue a federal case. The Journal cites a letter written by current CMS administrator Marilyn Tavenner to Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, defending a meeting between agency officials and Wall Street-based clients to discuss reimbursement for a company that makes medical devices.
"We believe that CMS has an obligation to provide information to the public about the programs that the agency administers and to answer questions about our policies and the impact of our policies on beneficiaries, providers and stakeholders," Tavenner wrote, according to the Journal.

Internal memo pushes bringing non-citizens to US for Ebola treatment; State denies plan

A memo obtained by Fox News indicates the Obama administration has been considering allowing non-American Ebola patients into the U.S. for treatment – though a State Department official on Tuesday denied any such plans.
The document was obtained by Fox News from a Capitol Hill source, who said it is a memo prepared by the State Department. The top of the document is marked “sensitive but unclassified – predesicional (sic).”
CLICK TO READ THE MEMO
The “purpose” of the memo states: “Come to an agreed State Department position on the extent to which non-U.S. citizens will be admitted to the United States for treatment of Ebola Virus Disease.”
The document goes on to discuss – and advocate for -- devising such a plan. The memo recommends that “State and DHS devise a system for expeditious parole of Ebola-infected non-citizens into the United States as long as they are otherwise eligible for medical evacuation from the Ebola affected countries and for entry into the United States.”
Explaining that recommendation, the memo says the U.S., for instance, has an “obligation” to help non-citizen employees of U.S. agencies and U.S.-based private firms. It says the U.S. “needs to show leadership and act as we are asking others to act by admitting certain non-citizens into the country for medical treatment for Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) during the Ebola crisis.”
The memo was obtained after House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., wrote to Secretary of State John Kerry and Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson a week ago asking if either department was formulating a plan to allow non-U.S. citizens with Ebola to come to the U.S. for medical treatment.
Goodlatte also told Fox News Monday night that his office had received "information from within the administration" that such plans were being developed. So far, only American Ebola patients have been brought back to the U.S. for treatment from the disease epicenter in West Africa. 
Goodlatte warned that expanding that policy could put the country at more risk. 
"Members of the media, my office have received confidential communications saying that those plans are being developed," Goodlatte said Monday night. "This is simply a matter of common sense that if you are concerned about this problem spreading … we certainly shouldn't be bringing in the patients." 
The administration, though, has denied planning to do so.
A State Department official said Tuesday that they're only talking about letting other countries use U.S. planes to transport Ebola patients to their own home countries. 
"There are absolutely no plans to MEDEVAC non-Americans who become ill from West Africa to the United States," the official told FoxNews.com. "We have discussed allowing other countries to use our MEDEVAC capabilities to evacuate their own citizens to their home countries or third-countries, subject to reimbursement and availability. But we are not contemplating bringing them back to the U.S. for treatment. 
"Allegations to the contrary are completely false." 
And on Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest was asked about the matter and said “that certainly hasn't happened so far -- I don't know of any plans to do that.”
A Goodlatte aide told FoxNews.com that "someone in one of the agencies" initially contacted their office with the tip. 
In his letter last week, Goodlatte asked whether the administration is crafting such a plan, seeking details and communications among their employees. 
The conservative watchdog group Judicial Watch also reported, shortly before Goodlatte sent the letter, that the administration was "actively formulating" plans to bring Ebola patients into the U.S., with the specific goal of treating them "within the first days of diagnosis."