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| Another Establishment Guy? |
The Cuyahoga River, which slices through downtown Cleveland twice, caught fire in the 1950s and 1960s.
There is so much dread and acrimony about the GOP
presidential contest, one wonders if the Republican convention in
Cleveland could be the scene of a similar conflagration.
Talk of a brokered or contested convention abounds.
Angst paralyzes some Republican lawmakers about the prospects of Donald
Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, heading the GOP ticket. There’s worry
about outright discord and no clear winner come convention time.
Is it any wonder some Republicans briefly launched an
effort to recruit House Speaker Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., to seek the
presidency?
Former U.S. Ambassador to Finland Earle Mack wanted to garner one million online signatures to compel Ryan to run.
“If you do not get 1,238 delegates on the first
ballot, then the confusion starts. The chaos starts,” Mack told the Fox
Business Channel. “Because of the disarray, they would need someone to
heal it. And that would be Paul Ryan.”
The speaker’s political team wasn’t amused. Ryan’s
counsel, Timothy Kronquist, sent a letter to the Federal Election
Commission on Monday disavowing the organization.
Kronquist followed up with a cease-and-desist letter
Thursday to the pro-Ryan group. The dispatch accused the outfit of
giving voters the impression its activities are “in coordination with
Speaker Ryan.”
Kronquist noted that Ryan repeatedly said he isn’t running for president.
Of course, Ryan was also adamant that he wasn’t running for speaker of the House …
Until he was.
An effort to quash political activity even if Ryan
doesn’t support the draft effort? Weren’t Republicans lathered up when
they accused the IRS of trying to temper political activities? Where’s
Lois Lerner?
By Friday afternoon, the pro-Ryan group halted its
efforts. It issued a statement saying the recruitment mission “could
become an unwanted distraction from the Speaker’s current
responsibilities.”
However, the group argued that “in an open convention, the best person to lead our country would be Speaker Paul Ryan.”
Ryan’s done all he can to distance himself from chatter of a brokered convention.
“That’s ridiculous,” Ryan exclaimed in January when
asked about the likelihood of the brokered convention scenario. When
asked if he could guarantee there wouldn’t be a fight in Cleveland, he
replied “How would I know?”
House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., knows the risks Republicans would face at a multi-ballot confab.
“If they think that they’re going to upset the
verdict of the people in terms of the elections, that can really be
opening a very big Pandora’s Box,” she said. “I think that you change
that to your peril.”
The GOP’s political consternation over the top of the ticket translates to a legislative frailty on Capitol Hill.
This angst and division in the party is crystalized
in the current fight in Congress to approve a budget -- and maybe
spending bills later this year.
“We believe we have an obligation, a duty, to offer another way forward. To offer an alternative,” Ryan said in January.
Ryan talked repeatedly about how “Americans want progress” and said he’s “really excited about “being bold.”
He codified 2016 is “a year of ideas.” The speaker said he wants to “offer our fellow citizens solutions.”
Lofty rhetoric. But the GOP is struggling with the
budget. No budget and it’s hard for Congress to crank through the 12
annual spending bills that fund the government.
These can be the basic -- at times boring --
mechanics of Congress. And it’s challenging to match soaring talk about
agendas and ideas when the oratory of the Republican presidential
frontrunner focuses on the size of his jockstrap.
The success of Donald Trump and recalcitrance of
House conservatives is now giving Ryan the same headaches encountered by
former Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.
"Speaker Ryan is the ultimate optimist, and the job has only energized him," spokeswoman AshLeeStrong said Saturday.
Republicans may yet try to advance an annual budget
through committee next week and on the House floor later this month.
Rank-and-file House Republicans huddle in the Capitol basement late
Monday afternoon to assess matters.
Moving soon is important if the House is to actually knock out spending bills this year and truly legislate.
That would prevent cramming everything into an ugly,
omnibus measure in December. But a failure to move any sort of budget
doesn’t match Ryan’s bold agenda talk. It could be a significant
embarrassment for the speaker since he’s touted as the “numbers” guy.
In fact, the die for Ryan and this budget may have already been cast the day before he became speaker.
Last October, the House voted 266-167 to establish
topline spending numbers for the current budget cycle and the one that
now stymies the House.
Boehner engineered that agreement with President
Obama. It set the annual appropriations figure (often called
“discretionary” spending) for fiscal 2017 at $1.070 trillion. That meant
Congress would then fillet the $1.070 trillion among the 12 annual
spending bills to run the government.
But examine the October, 28, 2015, roll call. Of the
266 yea votes, Republicans only provided 79. Boehner and Ryan were among
that group.
Now, conservatives demand Ryan boot the $1.070 trillion figure in favor of $1.040 trillion.
If the leadership had the votes, they would have moved the budget through committee and onto the floor a few weeks ago.
House Majority Whip Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La.,
whipped the budget last week. There’s no formal green light just yet
despite a hope of action soon.
Rep. Bill Flores, R-Texas, chairman the Republican
Study Committee, the largest bloc of conservatives in the House --
roughly 170 members of the 246 member House GOP conference.
“I have not backed off,” Flores said. “I’m not endorsing $1.070 trillion.”
However, he did say a plan which helped with broader
savings -- even while sticking to $1.070 trillion -- might be worth
considering.
“You have to look at the whole picture,” Flores said.
There are also political considerations. A number of
incumbent Texas Republicans were jumpy about their primaries earlier
this month. There was concern that voting for a budget at the higher
level could lend ammo to their opponents.
But all Texas GOPers won and avoided runoffs. So, the delay may help.
Ryan still hasn’t solved the most-pervasive problem
in the House Republican Conference. It’s an issue that dogged his
predecessor.
“There are about 100 people here who would vote no and hope yes,” said one knowledgeable source.
That flies in the face of a memo Scalise penned to his colleagues in November.
“Too many in our conference are falling into the
pattern of voting no on tough bills while actually hoping the bill
passes because they know that the outcome will be even worse if the bill
fails,” he wrote.
Failing to adopt a budget cripples the House from
completing most spending bills. No bold agenda there. And it’s awkward
for Republicans -- and Ryan in particular -- who browbeat Senate
Democrats for not adopting budgets.
Members of the House’s ultra-conservative Freedom
Caucus would like $30 billion in immediate cuts to entitlement programs
such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. It is unclear how such
cuts could impact current beneficiaries.
GOP Rep. Dave Brat, R-Va., wants to slash the
entitlements in appropriations bills, though that violates the
much-vaunted “regular order” by running afoul of multiple budget rules
and regulations.
“I am a strong supporter of cutting mandatory
spending, just not on Appropriations bills,” said Appropriations
Committee Chairman Hal Rogers, R-Ky. “Any such attempt would stop the
appropriations process in its tracks -- risking the passage of
appropriations bills in the House, in the Senate, and most certainly
White House approval.
“This would ultimately lead us once again to
Continuing Resolutions and an omnibus, which is the opposite of the
‘regular order’ we are all seeking to achieve.”
It’s typical to alter entitlements via a special
budget process called “reconciliation.” Reconciliation usually comes
later in the year. But the House can’t employ the reconciliation
maneuver unless it approves a budget. Still, Brat and other
conservatives are skeptical about waiting.
“I prefer to see (changes) in appropriations because they come first,” he said. “I have to see it in writing.”
Rep. Mo Brooks, R-Ala., is also unimpressed.
“I haven’t heard anything that would change my mind,”
he said. “It’s always a hope and a prayer. All other hopes and prayers
have failed.”
Brooks was not concerned about demands for “regular
order,” though some approaches floated by Freedom Caucus members seem to
deviate from doing things by the book.
“I’m not concerned with the process,” Brooks said. “I’m concerned with substance.”
This boils down to a math problem. A scant 79
Republicans voted for the $1.070 trillion budget deal in the final hours
of the Boehner regime. Ryan is now trying to convert 79 into 218 yeas
to pass a budget. The math might not work.
All the while, there’s rhetoric of big ideas and a
big agenda ahead of the convention and election. And if the House is
impaired legislatively, there are questions if the talk rings hollow.
