The presidential race is tight. Hillary Clinton tops
Donald Trump by just one point among likely voters in the four-way
ballot. In the head-to-head matchup, Trump’s up by one point.
Clinton receives 41 percent to Trump’s 40 percent,
according to a new Fox News Poll, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8
percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3 percent.
In a two-way matchup, likely voters give Trump the edge over Clinton: 46-45 percent.
The poll, released Thursday, was conducted Sunday
through Wednesday evenings, at a time when Clinton faced new questions
about her health after falling ill at a 9/11 memorial event.
It’s the first Fox News Poll this season that
includes results among likely voters, so a direct comparison can’t be
made to previous polls.
An apples-to-apples comparison is possible among
registered voters, and the two-way vote trend shows the race has
definitely tightened: Clinton was up by 10 points at the beginning of
August (49-39 percent). By the end of August she was up 6 points (48-42
percent) -- and now she’s up by just 3 points (46-43 percent).
CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL POLL RESULTS
Likely voters are those registered voters who report a
high probability they will cast a presidential ballot this year. At
this point, fewer non-white and younger voters are saying they intend to
vote compared to other groups -- and that hurts Clinton.
“It’s clear what the Clinton campaign needs to do,
and that’s make sure non-white and younger voters show up on Election
Day,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. “If these traditional
Democratic voters turn out at past rates, she probably wins.”
Both tickets have the backing of most of their key
voting blocs. In the four-way race, Trump has the advantage among white
evangelical Christians (+52 points), whites without a college degree
(+31), and men (+13).
Clinton is preferred among non-whites (+51 points),
women (+13), and those voters living in households earning less than
$50,000 (+16).
Independents prefer Trump over Clinton by 36-31
percent, while 16 percent go for Johnson and 7 percent Stein. Eighty
percent of Republicans back Trump, and 81 percent of Democrats support
Clinton.
"Lately Trump’s avoided the sort of controversy that
undermined his efforts throughout August," says Republican pollster
Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Anderson. "By
allowing Clinton's problems to be the story, he may finally be
consolidating Republican support."
Fewer Democrats (77 percent) than Republicans (86
percent) are “extremely” or “very” interested in the presidential
election right now.
Even so, supporters on both sides are about equally
enthusiastic about their candidate. Almost all of those backing Clinton
feel certain they’ll vote for her in November (87 percent) and say it’s
important to them she win (91 percent). That’s matched among Trump
supporters, as they overwhelmingly say they’re certain to vote for him
(90 percent) and it’s important he win (87 percent).
In addition, 53 percent of Clinton’s backers strongly
favor her, while 24 percent have some reservations. For Trump, 50
percent strongly favor him and 27 percent have reservations. On both
sides, about one in five says their support is driven by dislike of the
other candidate.
Seven in ten voters don’t like the way the government
is working, including 44 percent who are dissatisfied and 27 percent
who are “angry.”
Over half would go even further: 57 percent say the world’s “going to hell in a handbasket.”
“Angry” voters prefer Trump over Clinton (by 54
points), as do “handbasket” voters (by 35 points). That’s driven by the
fact that Republicans are nearly three times as likely as Democrats to
feel angry about the way the government is working, and about twice as
likely to feel the world’s going to hell.
Likely voters trust Trump over Clinton on handling
the economy (+7 points) and corruption in government (+11). They favor
Clinton on race relations (+24 points), immigration (+5), nominating the
next Supreme Court justice (+1), and terrorism/national security (+1).
On immigration, while there’s been some
back-and-forth on Trump’s position on deportation, he’s been consistent
on building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Over half of likely
voters disagree with the GOP nominee and oppose building a wall. The
same is true among registered voters, which is a change in sentiment.
In the past, half or better favored the wall. That shift is mainly due
to a double-digit increase in opposition among Democrats.
Seven-in-ten Republicans favor the wall, and a recent
Fox News Poll found nearly three in ten favor deporting as many illegal
immigrants as possible (August 28-30).
The new poll finds many voters think those favoring
deportation are motivated by racism (37 percent say racism is a major
factor in favoring deportation and 32 percent minor factor).
Pollpourri
Among registered voters:
-- Republicans split over their nominee, as 50
percent are happy with Trump, while 48 percent wish it were someone
else. That’s mostly unchanged since June.
-- 52 percent of Democrats are happy with Clinton at
the top of their ticket. That’s down from 58 percent in June.
Forty-three percent would rather have Bernie Sanders, up from 37
percent.
-- 12 percent of Republicans who preferred someone
else as their nominee defect to Clinton in the four-way ballot. Only
five percent of Sanders backers back Trump.
The Fox News Poll is based on landline and cellphone
interviews with 1,006 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and
was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D)
and Shaw & Company Research (R) from September 11-14, 2016. The
survey includes results among 867 likely voters. The margin of sampling
error is plus or minus three percentage points for results among both
registered and likely voters.