With just over a week until the first 2016 election contest, Donald
Trump takes the lead in Iowa -- and maintains his big advantage in New
Hampshire.
That’s according to the latest round of Fox News state polls on the Republican presidential nomination contest.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE IOWA POLL RESULTS
CLICK HERE TO READ THE NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL RESULTS
Trump bests Ted Cruz in Iowa and now receives 34
percent support among Republican caucus-goers. Trump was at 23 percent
in the Fox News Poll two weeks ago (January 4-7).
Cruz is second with 23 percent -- down a touch from
27 percent. Marco Rubio comes in third with 12 percent, down from 15
percent. No others garner double-digit support.
Among caucus-goers who identify as “very”
conservative, Cruz was up by 18 points over Trump earlier this month.
Now they each receive about a third among this group (Cruz 34 percent
vs. Trump 33 percent).
There’s been a similar shift among white evangelical Christians. Cruz’s 14-point advantage is now down to a 2-point edge.
A lot has happened in the intervening two weeks. Fox
Business Network hosted a Republican debate where Trump questioned
Cruz’s eligibility to be president, and Cruz attacked Trump’s liberal
“New York values.” On Tuesday, Gov. Terry Branstad urged his fellow
Iowans to vote against Cruz because of his opposition to ethanol -- and
former Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin endorsed Trump.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw says, “We tend to
over-interpret every little thing in a presidential race, but here we
actually have solid evidence Trump didn't just win last week in Iowa --
he won it by enough to put some distance between himself and Cruz.”
Shaw conducts the Fox News Poll with Democratic pollster Chris
Anderson.
But a lot can change before Iowans caucus February 1.
A third of Republican caucus-goers say they may
change their mind (33 percent). Even one in four Trump supporters says
they may ultimately go with another candidate (25 percent).
Cruz tops the list when GOP caucus-goers are asked
their second-choice candidate. When first and second-choice preferences
are combined, it’s extremely tight between Trump (48 percent) and Cruz
(45 percent).
That’s because 20 percent of Iowa Republican
caucus-goers are so negative on Trump they say they would “refuse” to
vote for him over the Democrat in November, while fewer say the same of
Cruz (11 percent). Another 14 percent say they would stay home if the
nominee is Jeb Bush.
Here’s how the rest of the field stands: Ben Carson
is at 7 percent, Rand Paul is at 6 percent, Bush and Chris Christie each
get 4 percent, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum tie at 2
percent, and Carly Fiorina gets 1 percent.
More than a third who say they will attend a
Republican caucus this year have never gone before (38 percent). Many
of these first-time attendees, 43 percent, are supporting Trump, while
19 percent favor Cruz and 14 percent Rubio. The poll can’t predict how
many from this group will actually show up.
Among just those Republicans who have caucused
before, it’s a 3-point race: Trump 28 percent vs. Cruz 25 percent.
Another 10 percent go for Rubio.
True conservative values is the top characteristic
GOP caucus-goers want in their party’s nominee (27 percent), closely
followed by telling it like it is (24 percent) and being a strong leader
(23 percent). Those traits outrank nominating someone who can win in
November (9 percent) or has the right experience (7 percent).
New Hampshire
Unlike Iowa, there has been little movement in the
New Hampshire Republican race. Trump continues to garner more than twice
the support of his nearest competitors.
The Fox News poll shows Trump at 31 percent (down 2
points), Cruz at 14 percent (up 2 points) and Rubio at 13 percent (down 2
points).
Kasich is at 9 percent, Bush and Christie each
receive 7 percent, Carson and Paul tie at 5 percent, while Fiorina gets 3
percent, and Huckabee 1 percent.
Despite dominating the NH race, Trump also tops the
list as the nominee who would make Republicans stay home in November:
26 percent say they would refuse to vote for Trump against the
Democrat. Fifteen percent say the same of Bush, 14 percent feel that
way about Cruz, and 12 percent about Rubio.
Over half of likely Republican primary voters in the
Granite State say they are certain to vote for their candidate, while 36
percent could still shift their support.
Granite Staters also want slightly different traits
in their nominee than their Iowa counterparts. NH GOP primary voters
want a strong leader (27 percent) and someone who tells it like it is
(21 percent) more than a nominee who has true conservative values (15
percent), is electable (13 percent), or has the right experience (12
percent).
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint
direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company
Research (R). These polls were conducted January 18-21, 2016, by
telephone (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers.
The New Hampshire poll was among a sample of 801
registered voters selected from a statewide voter file. Results based
on the sample of 401 Republican primary voters have a margin of sampling
error of plus or minus five percentage points.
In Iowa, the poll was among a sample of 801
registered voters selected from a statewide voter file. Results based
on the sample of 378 Republican caucus-goers have a margin of sampling
error of plus or minus five percentage points.