The future of the 2016 presidential race ain’t what it used to be.
Emerging from Monday night's Iowa caucuses, Donald
Trump and Hillary Clinton -- the respective Republican and Democratic
polling front-runners -- now appear locked in a dog fight heading into
the New Hampshire primary.
Clinton's apparent razor-thin win in a photo-finish
with Bernie Sanders does little to blunt the Vermont senator's momentum
heading into the Granite State, where he enjoys a comfortable polling
lead. The Associated Press and state Democratic Party called the Iowa
race for Clinton on Tuesday.
On the Republican side in Iowa, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
beat billionaire businessman Trump -- but it's Florida Sen. Marco
Rubio's closing surge to nearly overtake Trump that overnight changes
the dynamic of the GOP battle.
“It’s a three-person race now,” Rubio spokesman Alex Conant told Fox News.
The New Hampshire primary next Tuesday, where no
fewer than five candidates are battling for the No. 2 spot in the polls
under Trump, could make the GOP leaderboard even more crowded.
On the Democratic side, Clinton was declared the
winner of Monday’s Iowa contest, but only by a fraction of a percentage
point.
Sanders, en route to New Hampshire overnight,
suggested the results prove decisively he’s no longer a “fringe
candidate,” as some had described him.
“We’re in this to the convention,” Sanders vowed.
To be sure, the 2016 outcome on the Democratic side
had echoes of 2008, albeit with a better outcome for Clinton. In 2008,
Clinton placed third while underdog Barack Obama won, using that
momentum to eventually secure the nomination.
In this case, Clinton scored what appeared to be a
narrow win – but in a contest where she used to be the overwhelming
front-runner, at one point leading Sanders by roughly 30 points in the
polls.
She now heads to New Hampshire where Sanders holds a
wide lead in the polls. Like in 2008, she could very well go 1-1 with
her closest rival in the first two contests.
Further, the race essentially begins at a near-draw
in the delegate count. Sanders noted that Iowa's 44 Democratic national
convention delegates would be distributed almost evenly between the two
candidates. The Associated Press reported that Clinton had captured at
least 22 delegates to Sanders' 21, with the remaining one going to the
statewide winner.
Republicans gleefully described the returns as a problem for Clinton.
“It’s a total disaster for Hillary Clinton,”
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus told Fox News,
predicting the Democrats could be “even more unclear in April than we
are” in their nominating contests.
Nevertheless, the Clinton campaign touted their
narrow delegate lead early Tuesday as a victory, plain and simple –
though it appeared some precincts had stray delegates decided by coin
toss.
"Statistically, there is no outstanding information
that could change the results and no way that Senator Sanders can
overcome Secretary Clinton's advantage,” the campaign said.
A number of news outlets, including Fox News, have not yet formally called the contest for the former secretary of state.
Sanders said the results sent a “profound message” to the media and political establishment.
Anti-establishment overtones also were apparent on
the Republican side, where Cruz claimed a more resounding victory in the
state.
“Tonight is a victory for the grassroots. Tonight is a
victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this
great nation,” Cruz told cheering supporters.
In the Republican campaign, Cruz fought hard in
recent weeks to make up lost ground in the polls and was helped in part
by a sophisticated ground operation. He also hammered Trump for his
decision to skip last week's Republican debate.
Meanwhile, Rubio's stronger-than-expected third place
finish was helped in large part by late deciders. An energized Rubio
touted the results at a post-caucus rally.
“For months they told us we had no chance. … They
told me I needed to wait my turn,” Rubio said. “But tonight … here in
Iowa, the people in this great state sent a very clear message. After
seven years of Barack Obama, we are not waiting any longer to take our
country back.”
With almost all precincts reporting, Cruz had 28
percent, Trump had 24 percent and Rubio had 23 percent. Retired
neurosurgeon Ben Carson placed a distant fourth in the race with 9
percent, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul placed fifth with 5 percent.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the one-time front-runner on the Republican side, placed a disappointing sixth.
Still, Bush said Tuesday he’s looking to recover in New Hampshire.
“New Hampshire has a tendency to reset the race,” Bush told Fox News.
A big question heading into next week will be whether
Trump’s second-place showing in Iowa affects his sizeable lead in the
Granite State.
Trump, for his part, argued he beat initial expectations by placing second and predicted he'd still win in New Hampshire.
“We will go on to get the Republican nomination, and
we will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they
throw up there,” he said. He closed his speech by saying: "I think I
might come here and buy a farm, I love it.”