Few people in Washington think House Republicans this year will complete a budget.
That’s a little astonishing.
Republicans have batted around dozens of ideas.
They’ve conducted closed door meetings. Entertained options. And still,
House Republicans aren’t much closer to solving the budget riddle than
they were when conversations began over the winter.
“The leadership has been on a listening tour for
three months,” said Rep. Dave Brat, R-Va. “We have to go back to
constituents and say we made up for the crap sandwich. Made up for the
barn cleaning.”
What Brat refers to is a plan President Obama forged
last fall with then-House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, to “clean the
barn” for the next speaker.
Both houses of Congress approved the package, and
Obama signed it into law. Only 79 House GOPers voted in favor of the
measure in late October -- including new House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.
The deal established what’s called “discretionary”
spending numbers for this fiscal year and fiscal 2017, which begins in
October 1.
“We are being asked to validate a spending level that
the vast majority of Republicans in the House and Senate opposed months
ago,” said Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio. “Let’s do a budget and spend less
money. I think that’s what voters are demanding after what you’ve seen
in the presidential contest. We make this stuff way too complicated.”
A brief dive into the complicated stuff:
All federal spending is allocated into two chunks.
“Mandatory” spending is what the government has to spend on entitlement
programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the
debt.
Congress long ago passed laws that put these programs
on automatic pilot. Mandatory spending consumes more than two-thirds of
all federal dollars each year. That money just floats out the door
without anyone raising a finger.
“Discretionary” spending is the rest. It’s
discretionary because lawmakers have discretion over how much to spend
and on what programs. Discretionary dollars account for the remaining
third of all annual government spending.
In Boehner’s barn cleaning, the duo set discretionary
spending for fiscal 2016 at $1.067 trillion. They raised it for fiscal
2017 to $1.070 trillion.
But here’s the issue: Congressional conservatives are
pushing for $30 billion in reforms to mandatory spending programs. That
could reduce the discretionary number to $1.047 trillion. That would
make it challenging for the House to approve annual spending bills to
fund the government after October 1.
Conservatives have pushed for deep cuts and
reductions since Republicans claimed the House in 2010. They made
minimal progress in the debt-ceiling agreement of 2011 that resulted in
sequestration -- deep, required spending limitations on the
discretionary side of the ledger.
But the mandatory spending side is much larger than
the discretionary side. That’s why reforms to entitlements make more
impact. And conservatives want proof that savings aren’t fiscal fairy
dust.
“It needs to be real,” Jordan said.
What counts as “real?” A plan Obama would in fact sign into law.
“That would be pretty real,” Rep. Matt Salmon,
R-Ariz., said when asked about moving a measure that would earn the
president’s signature.
“It’s got to be this year,” said Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kansas. “Real cuts that actually get signed into law.”
Conservatives think the GOP-led House has never made
good on promises lawmakers made to constituents to reduce overall
federal spending. Hence, that’s why they want to show they’re making
amends for Boehner’s barn cleaning.
That’s why Republicans can’t cobble together the
votes to approve a budget. The Republican brass needs the help of at
least some of the 40-plus members who comprise the House Freedom Caucus.
But there will be no budget if party divisions remain this deep.
Harley-Davidson stopped manufacturing motorcycle
sidecars five years ago. Most bartenders can mix a sidecar cocktail with
cognac, Grand Mariner and lemon juice. It’s unclear if House Republican
leaders are devotees of Easy Rider or experienced mixologists.
But if the House will produce a budget this year, the production of budgetary “sidecars” are key to the entire enterprise.
“That’s getting warm,” said Brat of the sidecar possibilities. “We’re willing to go there.”
One sidecar option is for the House to approve a
budget for fiscal 2017 at the $1.070 trillion level, but include a
separate package that mines $30 billion in cuts from mandatory programs.
There is also conversation about approving a budget
at a lower spending threshold -- with an agreement that Obama would sign
actual spending bills into law with higher dollar figures.
Conservatives feel burned before on broad agreements.
It’s customary for policymakers to commit to spending cuts but postpone
the hard stuff well into the future.
Conservatives want to get away from that kind of gimmickry.
“We could have $30 billion (in cuts) over ten years
with most of the savings in the ninth and tenth years,” said Huelskamp
with a smirk, knowing the way Washington usually does things.
Notably, Huelskamp wasn’t endorsing punting the savings until the out years.
The House Budget Committee last week approved a
budget that balances the books in a decade and slashes spending by $6.5
trillion.
Included in that budget is a repeal of ObamaCare. But
keep in mind that congressional budgets aren’t binding and not signed
into law. They’re aspirational.
The panel passed the budget. However, Budget
Committee Chairman Tom Price, R-Ga., knew there were several GOPers who
voted yes in committee who would vote no on the budget on the floor.
Dave Brat and Rep. Marlin Stutzman, R-Ind., voted no in committee.
There’s a problem with not doing a budget. Failing to
agree to an overall topline for mandatory and discretionary spending
makes it virtually impossible for lawmakers to begin approving annual
appropriations bills that fund the government.
There is a parliamentary failsafe that Ryan could
deploy to help initiate the appropriations bills. It’s possible the
House could simply hook some language to another measure and “deem” that
it passed a budget -- even if it really hasn’t.
In Congress, “deeming” a budget at least starts the appropriations process. But Ryan is ruling out such a tactic.
“No,” he said. “We need to do a budget.”
Regardless, the House Appropriations Committee prepared its first spending bill of the year a few days ago.
The committee sketched a plan to spend $81.6 billion
on military construction projects and fund the Department of Veterans
Affairs. The bill represents $1.2 billion less than what Obama requested
but is $1.8 billion above what lawmakers spent last year.
Of course, if the House can’t OK a budget at all --
or even deem a budget -- it’s likely Congress is stuck and must approve a
gigantic interim spending bill in September to avoid a government
shutdown.
Only some Republicans would be likely to vote for it. The GOP leaders would probably again turn to Democrats to bail them out.
And this is precisely what got Boehner in trouble
with House Republicans: leaning on Democrats all the time to do the
tough stuff.
A stopgap spending bill means the military
construction/VA measure gets less money -- as do all of the other
appropriations bills in the big, catchall bill.
That’s because not doing a budget and relying on old
spending figure kicks the total discretionary figure back to what the
government is spending this year: $1.067 trillion -- a cut of $3
billion.
As former House Budget Committee chairman, Ryan is
the high priest of budgets. He authored multiple fiscal blueprints that
Republicans embraced. He chastised Democrats when they failed to produce
budgets.
This is why Ryan and Republicans know why it’s so
important to produce a budget and adopt it on the floor. This is all on
them. But as speaker, Ryan can only attest to the virtues of budgeting.
This fight is internal, Republicans on Republicans.
Last time, they blamed Boehner. But he isn’t here anymore.
“Once Obama leaves office, there is nobody left to blame,” Huelskamp said.
