Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, a big ally of Nancy Pelosi and other
top Washington Democrats, was expected to have a clear path to the
state’s open Senate seat. But fellow Maryland congressman Donna Edwards
and her insurgent campaign is poised for an upset victory -- in a
contest often being defined by race and gender politics.
As part of House Democratic leadership, and with
enough name recognition to raise millions, Van Hollen was almost a sure
thing when Elijah Cummings, another Maryland Democratic congressman, and
a presumptive frontrunner, decided in February not to run.
However, the under-funded and lesser-known Edwards
has run a resilient campaign, with a message of economic hope and
prosperity for the work-class that is resonating with women and black
voters.
“She is out of the populist wing,” says Nathan
Gonzales of the non-partisan Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report.
“There’s some real value now in delivering that message in a primary.
There’s a similar divide in the presidential primaries. Look at Bernie
Sanders. … Being part of the establishment and leadership is no longer
what it once was for voters.”
An NBC News/Maryland Marist poll released Wednesday
shows Van Hollen with a 44-to-38 percent lead over Edwards, a black,
single mother whose former struggles to afford health insurance has
become part of her campaign.
The poll follows one released in late-February by The
Washington Post that showed Van Hollen leading by just 4 percentage
points and one by The Baltimore Sun in mid-March that showed him
trailing Edwards by as many as 10 points.
The Post poll also showed Edwards leading Van Hollen
among likely female voters, now the biggest voting bloc in recent
presidential election years, and black voters, who make up two-thirds of
registered Maryland Democrats.
State Sen. Delores Goodwin Kelley, a Baltimore County
Democrat, said Wednesday that the contest being thrust into the
framework of race and gender politics is “kind of sad,” considering it’s
more about voter demographics.
Nevertheless, Kelley, a black female, is voting for Van Hollen.
“If you really want to get the job done, you have to
pick the best person,” said Kelley, who served roughly 12 years in the
state legislature with Van Hollen. “When one person is clearly more
knowledgeable, works better with others, is willing to do the heavy
lifting, now is not the time to make an historic statement.”
As proof of Van Hollen’s fundraising prowess, he reported on Friday raising $1.8 million in the first three months of this year.
To keep pace, Edwards has gotten some huge help from
EMILY’s List, the liberal group dedicated to getting pro-choice women
elected to office. A PAC supporting the group has reportedly spent
roughly $2.4 million so far on the Edwards campaign.
The winner of the April 26 primary will in November
likely take the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski,
considering 56 percent of registered Maryland voters are Democrats, more
than double the number of registered Republicans.
Early primary voting started this week.
Edwards certainly has a natural advantage,
considering her Prince George’s County-centric congressional district
has a large black population, compared to Van Hollen’s Montgomery
County-based district, also in suburban Washington, which is made up of
more white and affluent voters.
However, the race could potentially be decided by who performs best in Baltimore City.
Edwards has at times been criticized for being
difficult in Congress, across the aisle and compared to Van Hollen, a
member of House Minority Leader Pelosi’s leadership team and the top
Democrat on the House Budget Committee.
“She’s such a purist about who she will talk to and work with that it’s almost paralyzing,” Kelley said.
Edwards campaign spokesman Ben Gerdes said this week
that his candidate “doesn’t shy away” from being who she is, which
includes a being a single parent and black female lawmaker.
“Who she is has shaped the type of legislation she
supports,” Gerdes said. He also said Edward’s closing strategy will be
the same as what got her to the threshold of a potential upset victory.
“People care about the same things -- good jobs, good schools, getting rid of the heroin epidemic,” Gerdes said.
Key issues like Social Security and more recently gun
control have helped define the race, in which the two progressive
candidates are ideologically close.
Edwards has tried to suggest Van Hollen would cut
Social Security to reduce the federal deficit. But Pelosi and others
have defended him as a strong supporter of entitlements for the poor and
elderly, and for ObamaCare.
Edwards and supporters are also now using ads to try
to tie Van Hollen to the National Rifle Association because he led
efforts on a 2010 bill to create more transparency in campaign finance
reporting that included exemptions -- or “carve outs” -- for the NRA, in
an apparent attempt to garner more support.
Van Hollen has fought back by arguing that Cummings
and President Obama supported the legislation, which failed in the
Senate, and points to his long political career of being tough on guns.
"We're confident that Chris's proven track record of
getting results and vision for the future are what Marylanders want in
their next U.S. senator,” Van Hollen spokeswoman Bridgett Frey said
Friday. “Congresswoman Edwards has focused her campaign on false and
misleading attacks because she's trying to hide her record of
ineffectiveness. But Maryland families want a progressive leader who
turns values into action.”
