If Dems win the House after midterm elections, blame ‘red tide’ out to sea, not a ‘blue wave’ crashing in

Four things jump off the page when one conducts a deep examination of this autumn’s midterm House elections:

• The historic norms favor the opposition party of the President by a lot in House races. The President’s party loses an average of 29 House seats in most midterms.
• The sheer number of open seats which House Republicans must defend this fall is off the chart. More than 40 Republican seats are wide open.
• Dismiss out the paradigmatic norms. We operate now in the age of President Trump. Mr. Trump rode an inside straight to the White House two years ago. The rules have changed. Mr. Trump is a special phenomenon in American politics. Most midterm elections are a referendum on the first two years of a new President. Study what happened to President Clinton in 1994 and President Obama in 2010. Voters repudiated both chief executives with historic pickups, flipping control of the House. It’s unknown if supporters of President Trump show up just to cast a ballot for someone not named President Trump. That’s why it’s nearly impossible to determine how this election will go down.
• It’s likely to be close when it comes down to House control. Democrats must marshal a net gain of 23 seats to win the House. It could boil down to the outcome of three to five seats in either direction. Thus, it’s entirely possible we might not know which party has the House until a few days later.

Party insiders and analysts believe 15-18 Republican seats are gone, no matter what happens. Some seats are more “gone” than others. A good example of this is a seat held by former Rep. Patrick Meehan, R-Pa. The redistricted seat heavily favors Democrats by close to 30 points. Similar circumstances prevail in the district held by retiring Rep. Ryan Costello, R-Pa. One can locate other examples in New Jersey where Reps. Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-N.J. and Frank LoBiondo, R-N.J., are quitting, too.
If Democrats win the House, it will be because of a “red tide” out to sea, not a “blue wave” crashing in. It’s hard for Republicans to defend so many vacant seats. If Democrats win the House, the GOP “open seat” dynamic may emerge as the most important factor in this midterm election.
Democrats have their Achilles Heel in these midterms, too.
It’s conceivable that Democratic candidates could rattle off lots of wins in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, California, Michigan, Illinois and Texas. But those Democratic “flips” could be offset by potential Republican pick-ups elsewhere.
Consider the seat currently held by Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev. A House freshman, Rosen is abandoning that seat to challenge Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev. Rosen narrowly won election to the House two years ago as Republican Danny Tarkanian - son of legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian - held her below 50 percent. Democrats didn’t fare very well in many states in 2016. But Democrats excelled in Nevada. Still, President Trump carried Rosen’s district by a solitary percentage point. Tarkanian initially intended to challenge Heller. But Mr. Trump personally convinced Tarkanian to again run for the House, this time against Democrat Susie Lee. Tarkanian has run for the Senate and House without success over the years. That’s remarkable considering the credibility of his surname in Nevada. As we said earlier, just a handful of seats could determine control of the House. If Tarkanian finally wins and Republicans maintain control of the House by a whisker, experts will laud Mr. Trump’s decision to persuade Tarkanian to again run for the House versus the Senate. It could prove to be the shrewdest move of the entire campaign cycle.
Democrats must defend an open seat along the Iron Range of Minnesota. Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN) is retiring after barely keeping the seat in Democratic hands the past several cycles. Republican Pete Stauber is running against Democrat Joe Radinovich. Hillary Clinton secured a scant 38 percent of the vote in this rural district two years ago.
Then there is New Hampshire’s First Congressional District. This district is the most volatile in the nation. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., switched it to Democratic control in 2006 and held it in 2008. But the seat has gone Republican in every midterm since – with Shea-Porter rallying to return to Washington in each presidential election. President Trump won this district by two percentage points even as Shea-Porter reclaimed the seat in 2016. Shea-Porter is retiring at the end of this term. Republican Eddie Edwards is up against Democrat Chris Pappas this fall.
In short, Democrats may make great gains elsewhere. But Democrats will fail to secure the majority if they lose seats like these.
There’s also another problem for Democrats in Florida.
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., is retiring. She’s one of the most moderate Republicans in the House. Hillary Clinton won Ros-Lehtinen’s district by a staggering 19 points. Former Clinton Administration Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala is the Democratic nominee and faces Republican Maria Salazar. Here’s the issue for Democrats: Democratic insiders have long expressed concern about Shalala’s performance in the district. At 77-years-old, a Shalala victory would make her the second-oldest House freshman in history. Democrats have also struggled to earn traction in that district among Latino voters. This is a district which should be a lock for Democrats on paper. However, it’s anything but.
There’s danger for Republicans, too.
GOPers who represent urban and suburban areas could find themselves on the wrong end of an anti-Trump backlash. This is why Reps. Andy Barr, R-Ken., Kevin Yoder, R-Kan, John Culberson, R-Texas, Pete Roskam, R-Ill., Mike Coffman, R-Colo., and French Hill, R-Ark., might struggle. Democratic victories in seats like these could propel Democrats to the majority.
That said, rural Republicans could benefit from a targeted bump after the bruising fight to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The Kavanaugh imbroglio ignited passions on both sides. An anti-Kavanaugh boost may help Democrat Jennifer Wexton defeat Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-Va., in the Washington, DC suburbs. But a pro-Kavanaugh spike could bolster Reps. Bruce Poliquin , R-Maine, and Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., in districts where the President remains popular.
There are several districts which bear watching in this matrix:
Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Ohio, is in a race against Democrat Aftab Pureval in southwestern Ohio. Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., is running for governor of New Mexico. Vying for Pearce’s seat in southern New Mexico are Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and Republican Yvette Herrell. Also, consider the contest between the aforementioned French Hill against Democrat Clarke Tucker. Note two Washington state races. House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., is up against Democrat Lisa Brown. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, R-Wash., faces Democrat Carolyn Long.
If Democrats win even one of those races, that’s a signal Democrats will likely win the House.
Democrats don’t have to win all of these races. And there are plenty of pathways for Democrats to earn control of the House without winning any of those seats mentioned above. However, these seats are bellwethers. Turning any of them from red to blue could provide a clue as to which party will be in charge of the House next year.

Obama 2018 Cartoons

Trump rallies in Clinton-won districts ahead of midterms

President Trump is in his happy place – the campaign trail.
With the crucial midterm elections just over two weeks away, he’s headlining up to four rallies a week – and staging many of them in toss-up districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
It may be a sign he believes his own hype, that the Democrats’ chances of a big win on Nov. 6 have receded and the GOP could buck trends. The party controlling the White House historically loses seats in Congress in the first midterm after a presidential election.
“You know, I think that blue wave is being rapidly shattered,” Trump told a boisterous crowd in Elko, Nev. on Saturday.
“All the Democrats want is power, and they’ve got this blue wave deal going,” he said. “Not looking like a blue wave.”

“You know, I think that blue wave is being rapidly shattered. All the Democrats want is power, and they’ve got this blue wave deal going. Not looking like a blue wave.”
— President Trump

Trump was in remote Elko, a town of less than 20,000 in northeast Nevada, on the first day of early voting in the state to push the re-election bid of Sen. Dean Heller, the GOP’s most endangered senator.
The two were once bitter enemies. Heller opposed Trump throughout the 2016 primaries and, ahead of the election, said he was “99 percent against him.”
What a difference a midterm makes.
“Mr. President, you know a little bit about gold,” Heller said Saturday. “In fact, I think everything you touch turns to gold.”
Their fence-mending reflects a remarkable shift within a Republican Party whose leaders were once almost completely hostile to the outsider president.
“Today there is zero daylight between Trump and the Republicans,” said Minneapolis political blogger John Hinderaker. “If you want to see where the Republican Party is at, go to a Trump rally.”
While Trump’s nationwide approval rating stands around 44 percent, he is hugely popular in many areas between the coasts.
His campaign travels so far in October have concentrated almost exclusively on the American heartland – places like Arizona, Kansas and Ohio. And he’s not just trying to protect vulnerable GOP incumbents.
In blue and purple cities like Rochester, Minn., and Missoula, Mont., Trump’s one-man show seemed to be aimed at encouraging his under-the-radar supporters to come out of hiding.
“Rochester, Minn., is a very moderate place,” Hinderaker said.
The city went for Clinton in 2016 by a 1 percent margin, and both Senate seats are in Democrats’ hands.
“He turned out a huge, enthusiastic crowd for a rally that was happy, upbeat and inspirational” on Oct. 2, Hinderaker said. “Afterward, people were tweeting out, ‘I love America.’ I think that feeling carries over even to people who didn’t attend.”
“Enthusiasm & Spirit is through the roof,” Trump tweeted after his Oct. 13 rally in Richmond, Ky. “SOMETHING BIG IS HAPPENING – WATCH!”

Obama visits Coachella just days after tweeting that more people attend music festival than voted in key states

Former President Barack Obama made a visit to California's Coachella Valley on Saturday, just days after tweeting that the turnout for the area's annual music festival surpasses the combined number of votes in three states that turned the 2016 presidential election.
The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival in Indio, about 130 miles east of Los Angeles, typically attracts a few hundred thousand people over two consecutive three-day weekends each April.
It wasn't clear why Obama was in the area, but his remarks came in the midst of a multi-state speaking tour to shore up support for Democratic candidates ahead of the midterm elections and encouraging people to register to vote, the Desert Sun reported.
Since 2013, Obama has visited the area every Presidents Day weekend and had three summits with world leaders at Sunnylands, known as the "Camp David of the West."
He's also been spotted in Rancho Mirage hitting the gym and local golf courses.
In August, Obama endorsed 81 Democratic candidates.
On Monday, he is scheduled to appear at a rally on the University of Nevada, Las Vegas campus.
Last month Obama campaigned in Pennsylvania on behalf of U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf, two Democrats seeking re-election.
Earlier this month, New York magazine reported that the Obama administration had a bipartisan plan in place to validate the 2016 presidential election in the event that Republican nominee Donald Trump protested a win by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
But Trump's victory made the plan unnecessary.

Trump's 'very dangerous' decision to abandon nuclear accord has 'mankind facing full chaos,' Russia says

Following the downing of a Russian warplane by Syrian forces during an Israeli strike, Moscow promises to supply the S-300 missile system to its ally; senior foreign affairs correspondent Greg Palkot reports from London.

Hours after President Trump announced that the U.S. will pull out of a decades-old bilateral nuclear agreement that he said Russia had been "violating for many years," top Russian officials lined up to hit back in no uncertain terms, calling the president's move a "very dangerous" provocation that would lead to "full chaos."
"We condemn the ongoing attempts by blackmail to achieve concessions from Russia," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told a state news agency. "This would be a very dangerous step."
Konstatin Kosachev, who chairs the foreign affairs committee in the Federation Council, Russia's upper house of parliament, wrote on Facebook that Trump's decision meant "mankind is facing full chaos in the nuclear weapons sphere."
And prominent Russian senator Aleksey Pushkov charged that Trump's move meant "United States is bringing the world back to the Cold War," saying the U.S.' withdrawal from the treaty would be a  "massive blow to the entire system of strategic stability in the world." Pushkov had previously criticized claims that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, arguing those suggestions are part of a plan to continue a "new Cold War."
RUSSIAN NATIONAL CHARGED WITH INTERFERING IN 2018 US ELECTIONS
The 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty ostensibly prevents both the United States and Russia from possessing, producing or test-flying any ground-launched cruise missile with a range of 300 to 3,400 miles. President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev inked the deal because of an unfolding crisis.

"We’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement."
— President Trump

But the Trump administration has said Russia broke the deal by deploying Novator 9M729 land-based cruise missiles, which can exceed that range and strike NATO countries quickly. The U.S. has previously acknowledged that Russia was violating the treaty in 2012 under the Obama administration, and for their part, Russian officials have also suggested the U.S. hasn't complied with the treaty by placing missiles in European bases.
After speaking at a campaign rally in Elko, Nevada, on Saturday, Trump said the agreement did little more than interfere with U.S. military development.
"We’re going to terminate the agreement, and we’re going to pull out,”  Trump told reporters. "They have been violating it for many years. I don't know why President [Barack] Obama didn't negotiate or pull out. ... We’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and go out and do weapons, and we’re not allowed to."
ANALYSIS: PUTIN ATE TRUMP'S LUNCH AT PREVIOUS SUMMIT IN HELSINKI
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg concurred with Trump's assessment earlier this month. (The Defense Department concluded in February that Russia was actively violating its arms treaty agreements, as well.)
"This treaty abolishes a whole category of weapons and is a crucial element of our security. Now this treaty is in danger because of Russia's actions," Stoltenberg said. "After years of denials, Russia recently acknowledged the existence of a new missile system, called 9M729. Russia has not provided any credible answers on this new missile. All allies agree that the most plausible assessment would be that Russia is in violation of the treaty. It is therefore urgent that Russia addresses these concerns in a substantial and transparent manner."
On Saturday, Trump went on to say he would be open to a new, similar agreement only if Russia and China signed on and demonstrated a sincere commitment.
“We'll have to develop those weapons, unless Russia comes to us, and China comes to us, and they all come to us and they say ‘let's really get smart and let's none of us develop those weapons," Trump said.
UK Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson forcefully backed the U.S. in an interview with The Financial Times, saying that Russia had made a "mockery" of the agreement.
“Our close and long-term ally, of course, is the United States and we will be absolutely resolute with the United States in hammering home a clear message that Russia needs to respect the treaty obligation that it signed," Williamson said.
GORBACHEV: TRUMP, PUTIN SHOULD FOCUS ON ARMS CONTROL
But Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called Trump's pullout a "big, big mistake" on "Fox News Sunday," echoing comments he made Saturday on Twitter.
Trump's announcement comes as National Security Adviser John Bolton makes his way to Moscow on Monday and Tuesday, before a trip to countries elsewhere in the region. Bolton is expected to discuss a range of issues with his Russian counterparts, including Russia's deployment of a S-300 missile defense system in Syria, the recent poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britian, and the nuclear accord.
Also expected to headline discussions are renegotiations of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which is slated to expire in 2021. Signed by Obama and former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev, the deal limits the number of strategic warheads both countries are allowed to deploy.
Trump and Putin are expected to attend another high-level summit, following their widely-criticized meeting in Helsinki, Finland in July. Critics charged Trump was too ready to accept Putin's denials of any meddling in U.S. elections.
"This is the most severe crisis in nuclear arms control since the 1980s,” Malcolm Chalmers, the deputy director general of the Royal United Services Institute, said in an interview. “If the INF treaty collapses, and with the New Start treaty on strategic arms due to expire in 2021, the world could be left without any limits on the nuclear arsenals of nuclear states for the first time since 1972.”

Saudi crown prince is 'gonna have to be replaced' amid 'insulting' explanation for Khashoggi's death, Rand Paul says

The Saudi government's overnight announcement that Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi died in a fistfight at its consulate in Turkey was "insulting," and provided another reason Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman is "gonna have to be replaced," Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., told "Fox News Sunday."
Authorities in Saudi Arabia said 18 suspects were in custody and intelligence officials had been fired over the episode, weeks after they initially claimed Khashoggi had left their embassy unharmed. Turkish officials have said an "assassination squad" from the Kingdom, including an official from Prince Mohammed's entourage, and an "autopsy expert" flew in ahead of time and laid in wait for Khashoggi at the consulate.
Khashoggi, a prominent journalist and royal court insider for decades in Saudi Arabia, had written columns for The Washington Post critical of Prince Mohammed and the Kingdom's direction while living in self-imposed exile in the U.S. He had advocated for democracy in Saudi Arabia and supported Islamist politics.
"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Public Prosecution showed that the suspects had traveled to Istanbul to meet with the citizen Jamal Khashoggi as there were indications of the possibility of his returning back to the country," a statement by the Saudi government read. "Discussions took place with the citizen Jamal Khashoggi during his presence in the consulate of the Kingdom in Istanbul by the suspects (that) did not go as required and developed in a negative way, leading to a fistfight. The brawl led to his death and their attempt to conceal and hide what happened."
The Saudi statement didn't implicate the heir-apparent of the world's largest oil exporter, and cited no evidence for its claims beyond anonymous sources. Paul, who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that the government's explanation didn't add up.
"I think it’s insulting to anyone who’s analyzing this with any kind of intelligent background to think that, oh, a fistfight led to a dismemberment with a bone saw," Paul said, referring to unconfirmed reports that the Saudi squad at the embassy included a man toting a bone saw.
He added: "I think we should put this brazen attack, this brazen murder in context with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has basically over the decades been the largest state sponsor of radical Islam and violent jihad. They sponsor thousands of madrassas that teach hatred of Christians and Jews and Hindus around the world. So this isn’t the first instance, this is just another in the line of long instances of Saudi insults to the civilized world."
Paul said the solution was for new leadership in Saudi Arabia -- a proposal echoed by Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who said on Fox News last week that Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman "has got to go."
"I feel certain that the crown prince was involved and that he directed this," Paul told host Chris Wallace on Sunday. "And that’s why I think we cannot continue to have relations with him. And so I think he’s gonna have to be replaced, frankly."
President Trump has said he has no plans to cancel the U.S.' billion-dollar arms deal with the Saudis, saying "we would be punishing ourselves" by killing the arrangement, which he called a "tremendous order for our companies." Saudi Arabia could simply turn around and purchase weapons from another supplier if the U.S. pulled out, Trump said.
In a statement published by the state-run Saudi Press Agency, the kingdom warned that if it "receives any action" form the U.S., " it will respond with greater action, and that the Kingdom's economy has an influential and vital role in the global economy."
However, Paul said, even imposing possible sanctions against Saudi Arabia and pulling out of the arms deal may be insufficient if the country's behavior doesn't change.
"I’m not even calling for sanctions really against Saudi Arabia, in general. I don’t think we should quit trading with Saudi Arabia. I think we should specifically quit aiding and abetting them in an aggressive war in Yemen ... where tens of thousands of civilians are being killed. It’s about them spreading hatred of Christians and Jews and Hindus throughout the world."
He continued: "I don’t think we need the Saudis; the Saudis need us much more than we need them. We have incredible leverage: Their air force is entirely American planes. They can’t last a couple of months without parts and mechanics to help run their air force. We train their pilots; they are completely dependent on us. We need to tell them to behave."
Separately, Paul criticzied Trump's decision to pull out of a decades-old nuclear agreement with Russia, calling it a "big, big mistake." Britain has voiced support for the Trump administration's decision, saying Russia had been violating the arrangement for y ears.

Democrat Halloween Cartoons

Migrant Caravan Clash With Mexican Police, Break Down Border Fence

Migrants tired of waiting to cross into Mexico, climb a border bridge fence to jump into the Suchiate River, in Tecun Uman, Guatemala, Friday, Oct. 19, 2018. Some of the migrants traveling in a mass caravan towards the U.S.-Mexico border organized a rope brigade to ford its muddy waters. (AP Photo/Oliver de Ros)

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UPDATED 5:05 PM PT — Fri. Oct. 19, 2018

Thousands of migrants traveling in a caravan toward the U.S. clash with Mexican police, as they break down a border fence.
A group of migrants breached the Mexico-Guatemala border Friday, according to reports.
Multiple people rushed through and towards the border bridge, before Mexican police used pepper spray to stop them.
Despite the chaos, Mexican officials say roughly 100 migrants a day will be allowed into the country to have their asylum requests reviewed.

2 convicted Democrats seek political office while behind bars

Ron Reynolds, a sitting Texas state representative running for another term behind bars, is expected to be re-elected since nobody is opposing him. (Ron Reynolds)

Two Democrats are running for a political office despite being behind bars, with one of them expected to win in Texas and celebrate in jail.
Ron Reynolds, a sitting Texas state representative, is running for another term. He is expected to win because nobody is opposing him.
He’s a disbarred Missouri City personal injury lawyer convicted in 2015 on multiple misdemeanor charges for illegally soliciting people to his law practice, KPRC-TV reported.
He was sentenced to a year in jail but later released on an appellate bond. But last month, the appeal was rejected and Reynolds had to return to jail.

Texas State rep. Ron Reynolds

The Texas state law doesn’t prohibit individuals with misdemeanor convictions to run for office.
The convicted Texas lawmaker boasts of being supported by Democratic Senate Hopeful Beto O’Rourke, who’s trying to unseat Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. He even appeared in a campaign ad with O'Rourke, KPRC-TV reported. O’Rourke’s campaign didn’t distance from the lawmaker and said they trust the electorate.
Reynolds denies that being in jail would interfere with his day-to-day job as a lawmaker, despite expecting to be detained when the state Congress commences in January.
“Rep. Reynolds has full confidence that his experienced staff will be able to handle any immediate needs of his constituents, during his 4-6 month absence,” read the statement from Reynolds, the Texas Tribune reported last month.

A photo from the Whitfield County Sheriff's Office shows Steven Lamar Foster, Democratic candidate for Congress in Georgia's 14th District. (Whitfield County Sheriff's Office)

Steve Foster is a Georgia Democrat running for U.S. Congress, but he may not be what the party regards as part of the “blue wave” of Democratic candidates.
The former doctor was arrested last year for driving under influence and shouted “I hate this country” during the arrest, WSB-TV reported. He was sentenced last summer and is spending six months in county jail.
Foster seeks to unseat Republican Rep. Tom Graves, a popular lawmaker in Georgia’s 14th District who won with 75 percent of the vote in 2012.
But that doesn’t discourage Foster from continuing to run the campaign. “Look, I’m not withdrawing,” he recently told the Associated Press.

Hillary Clinton gets asked ‘painfully scripted’ questions on Colbert: report

A segment featuring Hillary Clinton aired on Friday's 'The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.'  ('Late Show' Twitter)

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appeared on "The Late Show With Stephen Colbert" on Friday and was lobbed 'painfully scripted questions' and gave 'painfully scripted answers' during a segment called 'Just One Question," Mediaite reported.
Colbert, the host, said his staffers get excited when someone as knowledgeable as Clinton is in the building, so he gave them the OK to ask the former presidential hopeful a single question. The segment was edited and the workers were asked in various locations around the building. Clinton was inside a studio.
One assistant asked Clinton what her proudest moment was while she served as secretary of state. Clinton responded that it was working with U.S. diplomats.
A writer asked if she preferred 'The Rock' or Vin Diesel -- giving her an opportunity to showcase her knowledge about the characters in "Fast and Furious."
"What a tough question," she says. "The "Fast and Furious" movies prove that both are masters of high-octane action."
The audience laughs.
"And while 'The Rock' is an indispensable part of the later films, Vin Diesel is really the heart at the center of the Toretto family, and in the end, everyone is better off to look past what divides them and work together. You know, I like to say, stronger together."
The writer appeared to be happy with her answer and said, "You're a smart lady."
The audience laughed.
"Stronger Together" was a book written by Clinton and her former running mate Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va.
Clinton was asked if she'd make a prediction on the 2020 election and said she joked, saying she'd save that insight for her upcoming book, "What Will Happen: A Book of Predictions: Hillary Clinton and Paul the Psychic Octopus."
Her appearance on the friendly show may be another sign that she intends on staying relevant prior to 2020.
A longtime Clinton adviser is hinting that she may have one more presidential run brewing -- a statement greeted with glee from the White House.
"It's somewhere between highly unlikely and zero," Philippe Reines told Politico about the possibility that Clinton runs again in 2020, "but it's not zero."