There are a few different ways to think about this year’s elections.
There are two scenarios that have relatively low probabilities but are about equally likely:
1) Democrats, relying on many new and low-propensity voters, have been
consistently understated in polls and are poised to make historic gains
in the House and Senate.
2) Republicans will repeat their 2016 performance with suburbanites and
beat the polls by a narrow but consistent margin sufficient to barely
hold the House and make considerable gains in the Senate.
There’s also the highest probability scenario: That Democrats will flip
enough Republican seats to take the House and take a relatively narrow
majority of about a dozen seats but actually lose ground in the Senate,
where Republicans seem well-positioned to add one or two seats to their
current 51-seat majority.
We think that the split decision model makes the most sense and has the most evidence to support it. But then again, as
Crash Davis said,
“Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.” A little
humility is never a bad idea in the business of predictions.
In that spirit, we offer a pair of changes to the Fox News Power Rankings. As always, you can see all our rankings
here, but today please consider a couple of long shots that might see incumbents coming up short: New Jersey and Texas.
The races look remarkably similar from a distance. Both feature
incumbents who are less popular than their parties in their respective
states and both have seen an avalanche of spending against them not
nearly commensurate with their competitiveness relative to other
contests.
Fortunately, we have more and better polling in these states than in
many other Senate contests. And in both cases, the incumbents lead by an
average of about 7 points in the three most recent, methodologically
sound polls, and both incumbents are getting, on average, more than half
of the vote.
Sen.
Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads Rep.
Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, 51.3 percent to 44.6 percent.
Sen.
Bob Menendez, D-N.J., leads businessman
Bob Hugin 50.3 percent to 43.3 percent.
Given the margins of the abundant polling, electoral composition of the
states and the political climate, we had been content to call both of
these races “likely.” But there’s something else to consider: Both Texas
and New Jersey fit well into the “blue wave” and “red wall” scenarios
quite well.
First, New Jersey. Menendez is not a well-liked politician, even in his
own party. His decision to seek a third term despite a federal
corruption prosecution and an admonishment from the Senate Committee on
Ethics for his relationship with a wealthy donor was rightly seen by
Democrats as selfish.
The headline on the Newark Star-Ledger’s
endorsement of the incumbent today pretty much says it all: “Choke it down, and vote for Menendez.”
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee...
In addition to disaffected Democrats, New Jersey also has lots of
suburban Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. These are the
voters that Republicans have been the most concerned about in the era of
Trump, particularly those with college degrees and household incomes
above $100,000.
In polls taken before the terrorist attack on a Pittsburgh synagogue and
the ersatz mail bombs sent to leading Democrats, there were indications
nationally that these traditional Republican constituencies were coming
home for the GOP. Some combination of the
Brett Kavanaugh confirmation
and generally higher satisfaction with the president’s job performance
showed signs that it might save lots of seats.
If most of that party unity survives the current struggle between the
president, the press and Democrats over who is most to blame for the
rotten state of political discourse and Democrats really do shun
Menendez, it might just happen for Hugin.
If Republicans are going to have a really good night a week from
Tuesday, it will substantially start in the suburban precincts of New
Jersey. If it’s even close there, the GOP can feel very confident about
what’s to follow – some very big bricks in the red wall.
Now, Texas. Cruz is not as unpopular as Menendez, but he has plenty of
detractors among the state’s Republicans. Whether its lingering
resentment from Cruz’s bad bromance with
Donald Trump or
just that he spent much of his first term running for president, he
pales in popularity to other statewide-elected Republicans, particularly
the very popular Gov.
Greg Abbott.
When the conservative Dallas Morning News editorial page
endorsed O’Rourke,
it acknowledged its ideological disagreements with the Democrat but
argued that Cruz had become such a “cutting figure” that “bold steps”
were required to start to heal the national discourse.
Texas also has lots of those same kind of upscale suburbanite voters who
also live in New Jersey. And if they decide in large numbers to punish
the GOP for the excesses of the president, O’Rourke could be in the
game.
But the other thing O’Rourke is counting on is that many new and
low-frequency voters, including large numbers of Hispanic voters, turn
out in force. Texas Democrats have been working for years to organize
and mobilize younger Latino voters who skew more Democratic than older
ones. And if they’ve succeeded, it’s entirely possible that existing
polling models would miss the surge.
If O’Rourke is in the running, it will be a good sign for Democrats
across the West and Southwest that their day has come. If that’s what’s
happening, Democrats can reasonably expect to clean up on a bunch of
House seats where Republicans are counting on suburbanites to stick with
them and Hispanic voters to stay home.
Like we said, both seats are probably going to stay with their current
party, but both do make helpful channel markers for the direction of the
election nationally. And it would behoove us to show a little less
certitude. The scenarios preferred by either party are not the most
likely ones, but just because something has a low probability doesn’t
mean it has
no probability.
The 2016 election certainly taught us that, and so do sports.
This is the part in the college football season where dreams of January glory die hard.
Beyond undefeated powerhouses University of Alabama and Clemson
University, there are a dozen or so other programs that are still in the
running to make the playoffs and, potentially, the national
championship.
The good folks at FiveThirtyEight have a handy
probability calculator to see the chances of teams to advance beyond the regular season, which wraps up at the end of next month.
Their model holds that, to pick a team absolutely at random and without
any favoritism whatsoever, the West Virginia University Mountaineers
have a one in five chance of winning their conference and a less than
one in 10 chance of making it to the playoffs.
Now, we know this is wrong and foolish on the part of the model, which is obviously shot through with mountain bias. We
know that
WVU will not only flatten the University of Texas on Saturday afternoon
but also hold the line against a perennially overrated Oklahoma
University squad on the day after Thanksgiving. It’s obvious.
But maybe – just maybe – it would be helpful for us to remember that
these scenarios are just postulated sequences of events. And maybe –
just maybe – it would be helpful for us to presume a little less. Maybe
the Mounties will win out. Maybe they won’t. Further, it might even be
useful to see the probabilities as an interesting way to look at the
standing, but not put too much faith in them, either.
And if we can do that about college football, perhaps we could do so about something less important, like midterm elections.
THE RULEBOOK: CLOGGED AND CONVULSED, INDEED
“If a faction consists of less than a majority, relief is supplied by
the republican principle, which enables the majority to defeat its
sinister views by regular vote. It may clog the administration, it may
convulse the society; but it will be unable to execute and mask its
violence under the forms of the Constitution.” –
James Madison, Federalist No. 10
TIME OUT: SHALOM ALEIKHEM
The executive editor off the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette,
David Shribman,
lives in the same neighborhood where a terrorist attacked a synagogue
on Saturday. We recommend highly Shribman’s account of the day and
description of Squirrel Hill, a special place in the world. And we send
up our prayers to join those of millions of our countrymen for the dead
and for the living. May the peace that surpasses all understanding be
upon you in this troubled time.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
“Because this was our neighborhood, caught in the crossfire of the
strains of the global village, and for once — sadly, so very sadly — the
hurt was ours, and the victims were ours, and the need to heal is ours.
For now it has happened here; for millions across this wounded nation,
we are the focus of anguish and anger and solace, the
it-can-happen-anywhere place of the moment. And we know, given the tempo
of tragedy in these times that are ours, that the title won’t be ours
for long. In our grief — shared across all faiths — we need something to
lean on, to steady us. We might reflect on the passage from Proverbs
that lent its name to this place of tragedy, a reference to the metaphor
describing Judaism’s most sacred text, the Torah, as a tree of life,
or, in transliterated Hebrew, Etz hayyim:
It is a tree of life to all who hold fast to it; its ways are ways of pleasantness, and all its paths are peace.”
Flag on the play? - Email us at
HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.
SCOREBOARD
Trump job performance Average approval: 42.2 percent
Average disapproval: 53.2 percent
Net Score: -11 points
Change from one week ago: down 3 points
[
Average includes: Gallup: 40% approve - 54% disapprove;
NPR/PBS/Marist: 41% approve - 53% disapprove; USA Today/Suffolk: 43%
approve - 54% disapprove; NBC/WSJ: 45% approve - 52% disapprove; CBS
News: 42% approve - 53% disapprove.]
Control of HouseRepublican average: 41.6 percent
Democratic average: 50.6 percent
Advantage: Democrats plus 9 points
Change from one week ago: Democratic advantage down 0.6 points
[
Average includes: NPR/PBS/Marist: 50% Dems - 40% GOP; USA
Today/Suffolk: 51% Dems - 43% GOP; NBC/WSJ: 50% Dems - 41% GOP; Fox
News: 49% Dems - 42% GOP; ABC/WaPo: 53% Dems - 42% GOP.]
TRUMP’S MIDTERM ROAD TRIP TARGETS BASE OF THE BASEAxios: “President
Trump is adding an 11th rally to his final six-day blitz leading into
the Nov. 6 midterm elections. … Trump is going to Trump country within
Trump states. Only two competitive House seats lie within these
locations. The locations and dates we cite here, the big picture details
of which were first reported by Bloomberg, are based on internal White
House planning and could change: Oct. 31: Fort Myers, Florida; Nov. 1:
Columbia, Missouri; Nov. 2: Huntington, West Virginia and an undisclosed
location in Indiana; Nov. 3: Bozeman, Montana and an undisclosed
location in Florida; Nov. 4: Macon, Georgia and Chattanooga, Tennessee;
Nov. 5: Fort Wayne, Indiana and Cape Girardeau, Missouri; Another rally,
on a date [Axios hasn’t] established: an undisclosed location in Ohio. …
Trump is ‘going to the places where he remains popular, more rural or
exurban, and he's staying away from big cities that have suburbs where
he's toxic,’ [Cook Political Report's elections analyst Amy Walter]
said.”
White House braces for impact - Bloomberg: “White
House officials are largely resigned to losing Republican control of
the U.S. House and are bracing for an exodus of staff worried about a
torrent of subpoenas from Democratic congressional investigators.
President Donald Trump’s team still sees a possible path to victory. But
talk of a ‘red wave’ has ceased, advisers inside and outside the White
House said. Trump last uttered the boast in public in August. The mood
around the president has darkened as many challengers continue to
out-raise seasoned Republican incumbents and Democratic enthusiasm
surpasses that of the GOP.
Bill Stepien, the White
House director of political affairs, is already laying the groundwork to
shift blame away from Trump should the party lose the House. He argued
in an internal memo obtained by Bloomberg that the GOP has been hindered
by historical headwinds, a wave of incumbent retirements, and strong
fundraising by Democratic challengers.”
LATE DEM DOLLARS MAY MAKE THE DIFFERENCENYT: “As
the 2018 midterm campaign enters its final full week, House Republicans
are rushing to fortify their defenses in conservative-leaning districts
they thought were secure, pouring millions of dollars into a
last-minute bid to build a new firewall against Democrats. …Republican
officials are increasingly concerned about Democratic incursions in some
of the remaining 30 competitive districts on the House map where the
Republican candidates thought they had an edge. For the final two weeks
of the election, Democratic campaigns and outside groups are on track to
substantially outspend Republicans, strategists on both sides say.
Democrats are set to spend $143 million on television advertising in
House races, compared with $86 million for Republicans, according to one
analysis by a Democratic strategist tracking media buys. Democratic
super PACs and other outside groups are poised to outspend their
Republican counterparts by a wide margin, erasing an advantage
Republicans planned on having.”
How Sessions plans to survive midterms - National Journal: “Rep.
Pete Sessions is
running for reelection against a former NFL linebacker. But only one of
them brags about winning a Heisman Trophy—and it’s not the
onetime football player. That "Heisman" is what Sessions calls his
Spirit of Enterprise Award from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. … That’s
the Sessions playbook: Convince midterm swing voters to prioritize a
longstanding allegiance to the Chamber-style fiscal conservatism
embodied by George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan over their uneasiness with
the demeanor of the party's current standard-bearer. … Incumbents such
as Sessions in traditionally Republican-leaning seats in affluent
suburbs are in grave political peril, in no small part because of
Trump’s low approval ratings. … But Sessions is banking that a pure
economic argument against big government will win over educated voters
in a state as fiercely independent as Texas and with an economy as
robust and booming as that of northern Dallas.”
Will Iowa voters care about Steve King’s ties to white nationalists? - WaPo:
“[After] Eleven Jews had been massacred in Pittsburgh, gunned down at
their synagogue. … No one questioned whether their well-liked
representative,
Steve King — the U.S. congressman most
openly affiliated with white nationalism — might be contributing to
anti-Semitism or racism through his unapologetic embrace of white
nationalist rhetoric and his praise of far-right politicians and groups
in other nations. … The belief … expressed Saturday in Remsen, in the
wake of the deadliest attack on American Jews in history, is prevalent
across Iowa’s 4th District, where King is seeking a ninth term in
Congress. In his 16 years in the House, King has become better known for
making incendiary remarks about immigration and race than for passing a
bill. … In an interview after Saturday’s shooting in Pittsburgh, King
said he was not anti-Semitic, touting his strong support for Israel and
insisting there’s ‘a special place in hell’ for anyone who perpetrates
religious or race-based violence.”
SENATE DEMS FOCUS ON HEALTH CARE TO RALLY VOTERSNYT: “After years of running as far as they could from President
Barack Obama’s health care law, Ms. [
Claire McCaskill]
and vulnerable Senate Democrats in Florida, West Virginia and other
political battlegrounds have increasingly focused their closing argument
on a single issue: saving the Affordable Care Act. … It is unknown
whether Democrats’ health care message will hold up as Mr. Trump,
through almost daily rallies and frequent Twitter blasts, tries to
dominate television news and social media in the campaign’s final days.
He has said the midterms would be about ‘Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and
order, and common sense.’ But after years of trying and failing to
rally voters behind the complicated features of Mr. Obama’s health care
law, Democrats have discovered this year the emotional power of one of
its benefits, protecting people with pre-existing illnesses. The subject
has lit up polls, monopolized advertising budgets and driven a national
strategy for Democrats, who are defending 10 Senate seats in states Mr.
Trump won and are relying heavily on health care as a defining issue in
key states including Arizona, Florida, West Virginia and Nevada.”
John James cuts Michigan Sen. Stabenow’s lead in half - Fox News: “Underdog Republican Senate candidate
John James appears to be gaining momentum in Michigan, as the latest polls show the political newcomer cutting incumbent Democratic Sen.
Debbie Stabenow’s
once-comfortable lead in half. James, an Iraq War veteran, is now
trailing the incumbent by roughly 7 points, according to the latest Real
Clear Politics average of polls. The split is similar to the race in
Texas, where Democrat
Beto O’Rourke is trailing incumbent Republican Sen.
Ted Cruz.
Like O’Rourke, James remains the underdog. But unlike in Texas, the
polls in Michigan reflect a steady tightening. Stabenow, D-Mich., for
months had led by double digits. As of mid-October, Stabenow was 16
points ahead of James, according to an MRG poll. But an EPIC-MRA poll
from late October showed Stabenow with just a 7-point lead, an Emerson
poll showed her up 9 points and a new Mitchell Research &
Communications poll showed the incumbent leading by 6 points.”
McSally supporters try capitalizing off Sinema’s ‘crazy’ remark - Fox News:
“There was a new addition to a weekend rally for the Arizona Senate
campaign of Republican Rep. Martha McSally: signs that read ‘AZ isn’t
crazy, voting Democrat is!’ Supporters excitedly waved the signs during
remarks Friday by McSally and Vice President [Mike]Pence. The signs
referred to recently surfaced comments made by Democratic Candidate
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. ‘People have watched what was happening in Arizona,
and been like, ‘Damn, those people are crazy,’ Sinema said in a video
recorded in 2011 and posted this month by The Reagan Battalion, which
describes itself as a source of conservative information. Sinema also
has also been scrutinized for expressing indifference in a 2003 clip,
when a radio host asserted that joining the Taliban is a ‘personal
decision.’ ... Asked for a response to McSally’s charges, a spokeswoman
for the Sinema campaign directed Fox News to tweets posted Saturday
about the defining issue of their campaign – health care.”
SEX DISCRIMINATION SETTLEMENT ROILS MAINE RACENYT: “
Shawn Moody has
made his difficult upbringing and success in business the twin pillars
of his campaign to become Maine’s next governor… But for
Jill Hayward,
herself a single mother, there is nothing quite as painful as seeing
Mr. Moody appear on television… In 2006, Ms. Hayward, a former member of
management at a Moody’s store, filed a sexual discrimination complaint
against Mr. Moody with the Maine Human Rights Commission, accusing him
of firing her because he did not think she was up to the job after
giving birth to her son. … Mr. Moody has made his reputation and
character a part of the campaign because of how much he leans on his
biography in his race against Janet Mills, the Democratic state attorney
general. Opinion polls show a tight contest to succeed the pugnacious
term-limited governor,
Paul R. LePage, whose lieutenants are guiding Mr. Moody’s campaign.”
Jimmy Carter urges Kemp to step aside as secretary of state - AP: “Former President
Jimmy Carter is wading into the contentious Georgia governor’s race with a personal appeal to Republican candidate
Brian Kemp: Resign as secretary of state to avoid damaging public confidence in the outcome of his hotly contested matchup with Democrat
Stacey Abrams.
The 94-year-old Carter’s request, made in an Oct. 22 letter obtained by
The Associated Press, is the latest turn in a campaign whose closing
month is being defined by charges of attempted voter suppression and
countercharges of attempted voter fraud. Kemp has thus far dismissed
Democratic demands that he step aside as Georgia’s chief elections
officer. But Carter attempted to approach the matter less as a partisan
who has endorsed Abrams and more as the former president who’s spent the
decades since he left the Oval Office monitoring elections around the
world.”
POLL CHECK
Senate
Massachusetts:
Elizabeth Warren* (D) 56% vs.
Geoff Diehl (R) 34% -
Boston Globe/Suffolk
Texas:
Ted Cruz* (R) 51% vs.
Beto O'Rourke (D) 46% -
Quinnipiac University
House
CA-25:
Stephen Knight* (R) 48% vs.
Katie Hill (D) 44% -
NYT
KS-02:
Steve Watkins (R) 36% vs.
Paul Davis (D) 39% -
NYT
NC-09:
Mark Harris (R) 45% vs.
Dan McCready (D) 44% -
NYT
PA-01:
Brian Fitzpatrick* (R) 47% vs.
Scott Wallace (D) 46% -
NYT
VA-07:
David Brat* (R) 45% vs.
Abigail Spanberger (D) 46% -
Christopher Newport University
Governor
Massachusetts:
Charlie Baker* (R) 65% vs.
Jay Gonzalez (D) 26% -
Boston Globe/Suffolk
New Mexico:
Steve Pearce (R) 44% vs.
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 53% -
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Texas:
Greg Abbott (R)* 54% vs.
Lupe Valdez (D) 40% -
Quinnipiac University
*Indicates incumbent
PLAY-BY-PLAYJobs and earnings dominate the week ahead -
Fox Business
President and first lady to visit Pittsburgh on Tuesday -
USA Today
AUDIBLE: COME TOGETHER
“I condemn this shooting in Volusia County in the strongest possible
terms, & urge anyone with information to share it with the
authorities. I want supporters on all sides of this election to stay
safe.” –
Tweet from Florida Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum in response to news that someone had vandalized a country Republican campaign office over the weekend.
FROM THE BLEACHERS
“Bravo! Thank you for making it so simple. I am saving and sending [
Friday’s note]
to my grandchildren … to save and give to us something to contemplate
whenever reach the point in our existence where we need to stop and
think before we continue down a path of destruction that not only
impacts our little life, but that of all humanity. We all need to ponder
the words written so eloquently about the current state of our country
perpetrated by all involved over such petty differences that we have to
resort to such deviant behavior in the name of ‘the cause.’ Seldom is it
offered to us the truth in such a clear voice.” –
Tom Kyte, Seymour, Tenn.
[
Ed. note: Thank you, Mr. Kyte! There’s high praise and then there’s
grandpa-sends-it-in-the-mail high praise! I try to keep this note about
politics and voters as much as possible. Others are better suited and
situated than I am to write about our culture, especially when we’re so
busy keeping up with the cascade of information about an election that’s
now very nearly upon us. What I didn’t know when writing about our
rotten politics on Friday was that the next morning would bring a new
and even more devastating reminder that evil is real and will not be
ignored. After a wonderful day with my sons out in the country, I
belatedly got the news about what had happened at the Tree of Life
Synagogue. I confess that tears flowed from my eyes as I sat alone in my
parked car and read the accounts. Make no mistake: The terrorist’s
actions were not the fault of any other person, but rather his alone. He
pulled the trigger. He lost his way in the darkness. But if we
understand that such men will always be tempted by the lure of that same
darkness, are we not all obliged to bring light? Perhaps some of our
brothers and sisters will be saved, and at the very least, we can bring
support and comfort in a world where, no matter what, man will always
inflict suffering on his fellow man? We will not long persist as a free
people if we are not a virtuous people. It is up to each of us to work
that out as best we can. But how long must we wait before Americans in
one clear, strong voice demand leaders who reject division, dishonesty
and cynicism? My heart is still broken over what I saw and read on
Saturday and I pledged myself again to speak the truth in a spirit of
love, to choose kindness over cruelty and choose hope over cynicism. I
said that with the same words I offered at my own confirmation and at
the baptisms of my sons: “With God’s help, I will.”]
Share your color commentary: Email us at
HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.
WAIT. WHO’S KISSING THEIR CHICKENS?KUTV: “Despite
some news reports, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
doesn't warn people against dressing up chickens for Halloween. The CDC
stated … that despite news reports saying otherwise, people can dress up
chickens in Halloween costumes. However, the public health institute
does advise chicken owners to handle them carefully to keep their
families and chickens safe and healthy. If you're handling any chickens
during the spooky holiday, here are some tips: … Keep your chickens
outside and never let them inside your home. Don't eat or drink in areas
where the chickens live or roam. Don’t kiss or snuggle with your birds,
and don't touch your face immediately afterward. Children under 5 years
old should not be in contact with chickens - young children are more
likely to get sick because of their developing immune systems, and more
likely to put their fingers or pacifiers and other items in their
mouths.”
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“The cliché is that if you’ve infuriated both sides, it means you must
be doing something right. Sometimes, however, it means you must be doing
everything wrong.” –
Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on May 11, 2017.
