It's hard to believe that we're just a few hours away from it
officially being Election Day, but yes, we've finally made it to that
point.
In North Carolina, there has been a distinct buzz in the
air on the Republican/conservative side since early voting started on
October 17th, with GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump's push for
Republicans to take advantage of early voting spurring early vote
numbers for the party not seen in previous election cycles.
The difference was pronounced enough that it caused a full-blown panic
for the Harris-Walz campaign, which was aware from past elections that
early voting has typically been the strong suit for Democrats, not
Republicans. Further, there has been much angst on the Democrat side of
the aisle regarding the black vote in North Carolina, which lagged but
made up some ground in the closing days of early voting.
READ MORE: The 'Warning Sign' in North Carolina That Is Giving Kamala Harris Nightmares
North
Carolina had 17 days of early voting, which ended Saturday. Here are
some demographic data points to munch on from the in-person early voting
numbers:
Presidential race
Here's more info/analysis from Jim Blaine, an avid numbers cruncher and former chief of staff for State Senate Leader Phil Berger (R):
▶️UNAs overtook REPs on final day to 'win' EV
▶️Story of EV is DEMS missing ~270K voters from 20
▶️GOP leads DEMs by ~40K in EV
▶️Comparing 24 EV to 20 EV, GOP has net ~300K advantage over DEMs (GOP up ~30K from 20 + Dems down ~270K from 20)
▶️Breaking
with historic EV pattern of DEM dominance dating back to 2008, our
models indicate Trump will be tied or have a very slightly lead in
combined mail and in person EV
▶️GOP has between 30K and 60K more Election Day and high propensity voters who have not voted than Dems
▶️Dems have between 60K and 100K more low propensity voters who have not voted than GOP
▶️Black turnout is down in raw vote and share of EV
▶️Dems must turnout low propensity voters on Election Day to give Harris a chance to win NC
Donald Trump, JD Vance, and their surrogates have spent
a lot of time in key counties, both before and during early voting,
which no doubt has contributed to the surge in EV numbers for
Republicans.
Of course, a lot of data we've been seeing from the
various states including North Carolina has been crunched with the
thought in mind that most if not all of those in the D and R camps will
stick with their respective political parties at the ballot box.
But one thing people should keep in mind is that there is still a
segment of registered Democrats in the South who vote for Republicans.
While it's unclear exactly how many might have voted for the Trump-Vance
ticket in North Carolina, if the Democrat turnout in early voting
wasn't where Dems wanted/needed it to be, losing just a few thousand
Democrat votes on Election Day to Republican candidates potentially
could spell disaster.
On a related note, as veteran Democrat political consultant Thomas Mills explained,
unaffiliated voters overall, "are older with almost half over 55 years
old, meaning they probably lean pretty heavily Republican." For the
record, at this point, there is essentially a three-way tie as far as
voter registration goes:
First Congressional District Race
The
other race to pay attention to in North Carolina that has big national
implications is the First Congressional District race (located in
eastern NC), which I wrote about in detail earlier. This is the lone House race in the state that is considered a "toss-up" thanks in part to recent redistricting.
The nominees are first-term Rep. Don Davis (D) and retired Army
Colonel Laurie Buckhout (R). While some of the demographics of the
district have changed due to redistricting, it still has a large black
population, which Democrats are counting on to bring the district home
again for Davis. Buckhout, meanwhile, has been endorsed by Trump and
seeks to turn red a seat that has been blue since 1883.
But
Democrats have to be concerned considering of all the Congressional
races, the two that had the lowest turnout were District 12 and District
1:
Further, a reliable GOP source pointed out to me that the
"2024 Electorate compared to 2020 for the new First Congressional
District is 10 percent less Democrat, five percent more Republican
(that's a 15 percent swing), five percent more Unaffiliated, and six
percent less Black voters through early voting."
If they can't
make up some ground on Election Day, Democrats may lose that seat and,
possibly, any chances of winning back control of the House along with
it.
Relatedly, what we see happen in that district could be a
bellwether for how the state goes in the presidential election, as data
analyst Kyle Kondik noted in a "races to watch" opinion piece for the New York Times:
A Davis loss would be a blow to Democratic hopes of
winning a majority and would be consistent with Trump winning North
Carolina, while a Davis victory — particularly if the margin is not that
tight — may suggest Democratic troubles with Black voters were
overstated.
As the old saying goes, though, it ain't
over 'til it's over (no matter how many fake narratives the MSM wants to
push). Meanwhile, if you haven't already, go do your thing and vote!
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