A showdown could loom in December.
Not over tax reform, but over funding the government.
The federal government is funded through December 8.
Republicans control the House and Senate. But historically, the GOP has
failed on its own to provide the necessary votes to avert a government
shutdown.
The party required a bailout from Democrats as recently
as Sept. 2015 to help make up the vote deficit and pass those spending
bills. Republicans sometimes balk for a variety of reasons. They don’t
like stopgap appropriations packages. They’re disgusted by the process.
They demand more for defense. What about entitlement spending? Where’s
the plan to reduce the national debt?
As an aside, the answer to the final question wasn’t
really addressed in the recent budget framework approved by the House
and Senate to muscle through tax reform. And deficits are forecast to
balloon by at least $1.5 trillion in the Republican tax bill.
But back to government funding …
When Republicans find themselves short in these
government funding crises, they turn to Democrats. But Democratic votes
could prove even more valuable in this December’s scenario.
It all has to do with DACA and DREAMers.
DACA is the abbreviation for an Obama
administration-era program “Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.”
Democrats and some Republicans often refer to undocumented persons who
arrived in the U.S. as minors as DREAMers. That’s derived from the
bipartisan DREAM Act, short for “The Development, Relief, Education for
Minors” bill.
A coalition of liberal Democrats is now flexing its
muscles on the upcoming government spending bill. Many Democrats insist
that congressional leaders attach the DREAM Act to the spending package,
or else.
“If there’s no clean DREAM Act in the budget, we’re not voting for it,” threatened Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal recently challenged House Republicans to pass the spending bill on their own.
“But if … you need our votes, include a clean DREAM Act,” the Washington Democrat said.
“Republicans are the majority until it comes to
governance,” argued Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill. “Oh. You don’t have 218
votes? We’re happy to help keep the government open.”
House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.; Senate Majority Leader
Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.,
and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., head to the White
House Tuesday afternoon to discuss “end-of-year legislative issues,”
said White House Deputy Press Secretary Lindsay Walters.
Pelosi favors attaching a DACA fix to the spending package. Schumer also believes that’s a possible legislative path for DACA.
“We believe we’ll get it in the omnibus (spending) bill
because both Republicans and Democrats want it,” Schumer said. “If DACA
is in the bill, (President Trump) won’t veto it.”
Is there a risk of a government shutdown if Democrats
insist on shoving DACA into the spending measure despite possible
presidential objections?
“It won’t come to that,” Schumer replied.
Tell that to those on the right -- and maybe even those in the White House.
“DACA will not be in the government funding bill,” said
Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., leader of the conservative House Freedom
Caucus.
Including DACA in the spending plan could be the only
way for Republicans to obtain necessary Democratic votes to avoid a
government shutdown.
And Schumer appears correct: There are Republicans who
want to advance a DACA solution. A group of moderate House Republicans
held a press conference last week calling for just that. But immigration
politics are dicey for the right.
Latching the DACA plan to the spending bill poses
tremendous risk for Republicans. Ryan and McConnell are sure to draw the
ire of the hard right and lawmakers who fret about border security, a
border wall or “amnesty.”
“He won’t be speaker for long if he does that,” a
conservative House Republican predicted about Ryan if he allows a DACA
provision in the spending legislation.
Ryan’s wants to cleave DACA from the spending bill.
When asked if he would consider a DACA attachment in the spending
legislation, he replied, “I don’t.”
The speaker also said the DACA fix should be considered
“on its own merits.” And he questioned whether Congress had to address
the issue by the end of the year.
“We have until, I believe, March,” Ryan said. “So I
don’t think we need to have artificial deadlines within the one we
already have.”
It could be time to horse trade. Democrats hold many of
the cards in this poker game. But the administration has cards to play,
too.
Trump may not like the idea of an immediate DACA fix. But how about a DACA deal in exchange for extra money for a border wall.
“As the president explained in his letter to the House
and Senate leadership, the administration’s reform priorities ‘must be
included as a part of any legislation addressing the status of DACA
recipients,’ ” said a White House official to Fox.
“These reforms have been identified by our nation’s law
enforcement professionals as a vital safeguard for the American people
to both prevent new illegal immigration (border wall, legal loopholes)
and to end chain migration.”
House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., has said since
summer he wants a DACA fix soon. But Hoyer demurred when asked whether
Democrats would demand a DACA link to the spending bill in exchange for
Democratic votes.
“I don’t want to get there,” he said.
Why should Democrats cede their demands on DACA just to
help keep the government open in a bill without an arrangement for
DREAMers? Hoyer has said for years that when it comes to funding the
government, Democrats will always do “the right thing.” But Hoyer also
believes it’s incumbent for Democrats and the rest of Congress to do
“the right thing” for DREAMers.
“We do the right thing,” he said. “It is unacceptable,
because we do the right thing, to be held hostage to bad policies
because ‘you Democrats will do the right thing and while we do, we
Republicans, will do the wrong thing. We will shut down the government
as they have.’ We are not going to be held hostage by doing the right
thing, either.”
The latest wrinkle is that Trump and congressional
leaders may try to load up the spending package with hurricane relief
for Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Congress
has already forked over $52 billion in disaster relief. The
administration submitted its third disaster spending request to Congress
late last week: $44 billion. But the plan includes offsets to
counteract the new spending.
Just a few weeks ago, some lawmakers thought the key to
courting Democratic votes for the government spending legislation was
to add on disaster relief.
“You mean to tell me they (Democrats) won’t vote for
the spending? All of the disaster aid and Puerto Rico?” Meadows asked
rhetorically.
But members of both parties excoriated the hurricane plan.
The OMB request "is very disappointing. Not only is it
completely inadequate, it shows OMB’s complete lack of understanding of
the fundamental needs of Texans,” groused Texas GOP Rep. John Culberson,
a senior member of the Appropriations Committee and potentially a
vulnerable GOPer next election cycle. “Our community is still trying to
recover, and this request is a nightmare for those who are trying to
rebuild their lives.”
Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson, the top Democrat on
the House Homeland Security Committee, said, “The administration’s third
disaster supplemental request is an insult. This request’s stinginess
is both contemptable and ineffectual.”
So all eyes are trained on the big White House meeting Tuesday afternoon with the president and top Congressional leaders.
Congressional Republicans are racing to complete tax
reform. But one thing is for certain: The GOP faces disaster if they
fail to fund the government.
Democrats again hold many of the cards. And Trump and
congressional Republicans may have to cede a lot of ground on DACA and
disaster relief if they don’t want a government shutdown tussle to
sideline their tax reform efforts in December.