House Democrats see a big opportunity
this year to seize control of the chamber after years in the
wilderness, but the favorable landscape has emerged as a double-edged
sword for Nancy Pelosi – putting high expectations on the House minority
leader to deliver or face a resurgent effort to unseat her.
The California Democrat has held onto
her leadership post for roughly a dozen years, brushing aside past
challenges and touting her political acumen all along, despite her party
being relegated to the minority since the 2010 midterms.
This year, Pelosi may face a do-or-die scenario.
And there are no guarantees. While President Trump is
thought to be a drag for Republicans in purple districts, GOP
strategists see Pelosi as an albatross for Democrats, hammering her most
recently for describing tax cut-tied bonuses as "crumbs." And a fresh poll shows
Republicans erasing the Democrats' edge in the so-called "generic"
ballot, which asks voters which party they'd support for Congress.
If Democrats do fall short in November, a contest to
replace Pelosi as the chamber’s top Democrat already has been
handicapped as a two-person battle – between Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer,
the chamber’s No. 2 Democrat, and New York Rep. Joe Crowley, chairman
of the House Democratic Caucus.
“This is very political. Nobody wants to kill the
queen. Joe’s just going about his work, but he’s on everybody’s
short-list,” a Democratic strategist, who asked to speak anonymously for
this story, told Fox News.
Other names could emerge in such a post-midterm melee.
Rep. Joe Crowley is seen as a potential candidate for House Democratic leader, if Pelosi is challenged.
(AP)
Beyond Hoyer and Crowley, Democratic Reps. Seth
Moulton, of Massachusetts; Kathleen Rice, of New York; and Linda
Sanchez, of California, have all been mentioned as possible Pelosi
challengers, in large part because they have publicly stated their
desire for a change in leadership.
Moulton, a two-term congressman and Harvard-educated
Iraq War veteran, has been openly critical of House leaders since at
least 2016, when Pelosi couldn’t make good on predictions that
Democrats, relying heavily on the anti-Trump message, would retake the
House.
As a result, Pelosi, 77, faced a challenge for her post
from Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan. Pelosi won two-thirds of the caucus vote, as
she accurately predicted. But 63 of the 134 House members voted against
her.
In 2012, after failing to significantly cut into the
GOP’s majority, Pelosi shot down a reporter’s question about whether the
decision by her and others in House leadership to remain in their posts
is delaying the rise of younger members. She responded by highlighting
her efforts to get younger Democrats elected to Congress and concluded,
“The answer is no.”
Ryan -- who argued in 2016 that the Democratic Party,
including its elite California and New York leaders, has failed to
connect with Middle America voters -- has since made clear he has no
desire to mount another challenge. His office did not return a request
for comment for this story.
The 39-year-old Moulton, even this week, continued to
argue for a “next generation” of leaders. And many House Democrats
consider him, not Hoyer, the “bridge” to such a new group, a House
Democratic source said.
Moulton press secretary Matt Corridoni told Fox News on
Tuesday that the congressman is “not interested in seeking a leadership
post.”
Hoyer also has suggested that he could be the bridge to
the next generation. But at 78, and as a longtime member of Pelosi’s
team, such an argument is difficult to make, several Democrats said this
week.
The chairman of the House Democratic Caucus is
considered the No. 4 post on Pelosi’s leadership team. But Crowley
maintains a high profile in Washington and in congressional districts
across the country, having recently visited states like New Hampshire
and Michigan and often taking charge of House Democratic leadership’s
weekly Capitol Hill press conferences.
He also has contributed at least $2.6 million to
candidates and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, from his
own committees or from money raised from donors, his office recently
told The Washington Post.
While solid numbers, they cannot match Pelosi’s, who is
known as a prolific fundraiser. Last year, Pelosi reportedly raised
$49.5 million for House Democrats, including $47.6 million for the DCCC.
“She can raise in Hollywood and Silicon Valley like
nobody’s business,” the Democratic strategist also said. “Crowley hasn’t
matched that, but he does well.”
Crowley's office declined to comment for this report.
Hoyer press secretary Mariel Saez said in an email: “Mr. Hoyer – and the
entire Democratic Caucus – are focused on taking back the House in
November. He will continue working hard in the coming months to ensure
we have a Democratic Majority in 2019.”
A Pelosi spokesman brushed off the post-midterm speculation.
“The leader is focused on winning back the House,”
Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill told Fox News on Wednesday. “She’s not
here to work a shift. She’s on a mission. There will always be people
[on Capitol Hill] with ambition. That’s part of the game. But the leader
is singularly focused on winning back the House and has the widespread
support of the caucus.”
To be sure, Democrats have a good chance this year to win a total of two-dozen seats and take the House.
The party that controls the White House historically
loses about 30 seats in the first midterms after the presidential
election. In addition, Trump’s relatively low approval rating will be a
strain on GOP candidates in moderate districts; more than 30 House
Republicans this cycle are not seeking reelection; and recent federal
election records show 55 Democratic candidates so far have raised more
money this cycle than the Republican incumbents they are challenging.
But while Democrats hold the edge in many races,
polling in recent weeks has shown their advantage on the generic ballot
narrowing, even before this week's Politico/Morning Consult poll.
Beyond concerns about Pelosi’s tenure hurting her
party’s ability to keep the party vibrant with newer members, whose
ideas and leadership would presumably attract younger voters, the
Democratic Party also must contend with her status as a San Francisco
liberal alienating moderate voters and a lightning rod for Republicans
during election seasons.
"The fact that Nancy Pelosi is the face and leader of
the Democratic Party is the gift that keeps on giving for the NRCC,"
Matt Gorman, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman, said
last week. "As her colleagues openly grumble that she's a liability for
2018 and she continues to be the most unpopular politician in the
country, I can only say one thing: go, Nancy, go."