WASHINGTON (AP) — It seems to be
something of an occupational hazard for President Barack Obama: When he
talks about his health care law, he's bound to hit a fact bump sooner or
later.
So it went
Tuesday night, when he declared Medicare premiums have stayed flat
thanks to the law, when they've gone up. As for an even bigger theme of
his State of the Union address, the president's assertion that "upward
mobility has stalled" in America runs contrary to recent research, while
other findings support him.
A
look at some of the facts and political circumstances behind his
claims, along with a glance at the Republican response to his speech:
OBAMA:
"Because of this (health care) law, no American can ever again be
dropped or denied coverage for a preexisting condition like asthma, back
pain or cancer. No woman can ever be charged more just because she's a
woman. And we did all this while adding years to Medicare's finances,
keeping Medicare premiums flat, and lowering prescription costs for
millions of seniors."
THE FACTS: He's right that insurers can no
longer turn people down because of medical problems, and they can't
charge higher premiums to women because of their sex. The law also
lowered costs for seniors with high prescription drug bills. But
Medicare's monthly premium for outpatient care has gone up in recent
years.
Although the basic
premium remained the same this year at $104.90, it increased by $5 a
month in 2013, up from $99.90 in 2012. Obama's health care law also
raised Medicare premiums for upper-income beneficiaries, and both the
president and Republicans have proposed to expand that.
Finally,
the degree to which the health care law improved Medicare finances is
hotly debated. On paper, the program's giant trust fund for inpatient
care gained more than a decade of solvency because of cuts to service
providers required under the health law. But in practice those savings
cannot simultaneously be used to expand coverage for the uninsured and
shore up Medicare.
___
OBAMA: "Today, after four
years of economic growth, corporate profits and stock prices have rarely
been higher, and those at the top have never done better. But average
wages have barely budged. Inequality has deepened. Upward mobility has
stalled."
THE FACTS: The most recent
evidence suggests that mobility hasn't worsened. A team of economists
led by Harvard's Raj Chetty released a study last week that found the
United States isn't any less socially mobile than it was in the 1970s.
Looking at children born between 1971 and 1993, the economists found
that the odds of a child born in the poorest 20 percent of families
making it into the top 20 percent hasn't changed.
"We
find that children entering the labor market today have the same
chances of moving up in the income distribution (relative to their
parents) as children born in the 1970s," the authors said.
Still,
other research has found that the United States isn't as mobile a
society as most Americans would like to believe. In a study of 22
countries, economist Miles Corak of the University of Ottawa found that
the United States ranked 15th in social mobility. Only Italy and Britain
among wealthy countries ranked lower. By some measures, children in the
United States are as likely to inherit their parents' economic status
as their height.
___
OBAMA:
"We'll need Congress to protect more than 3 million jobs by finishing
transportation and waterways bills this summer. But I will act on my
own to slash bureaucracy and streamline the permitting process for key
projects, so we can get more construction workers on the job as fast as
possible."
THE FACTS: Cutting
rules and regulations doesn't address what's holding up most
transportation projects, which is lack of money. The federal Highway
Trust Fund will run out of money in August without action. To finance
infrastructure projects, Obama wants Congress to raise taxes on
businesses that keep profits or jobs overseas, but that idea has been a
political nonstarter.
The
number of projects affected by the administration's efforts to cut red
tape is relatively small, said Joshua Schank, president and CEO of the
Eno Center for Transportation, a think tank. "The reason most of these
projects are delayed is they don't have enough money. So it's great that
you are expediting the review process, but the review process isn't the
problem. The problem is we don't have enough money to invest in our
infrastructure in the first place."
___
OBAMA: "More than 9 million Americans have signed up for private health insurance or Medicaid coverage."
THE FACTS: That's not to say 9 million more Americans have gained insurance under the law.
The
administration says about 6 million people have been determined to be
eligible for Medicaid since Oct. 1 and an additional 3 million roughly
have signed up for private health insurance through the new markets
created by the health care law. That's where Obama's number of 9 million
comes from. But it's unclear how many in the Medicaid group were
already eligible for the program or renewing existing coverage.Likewise, it's not known how many of those who signed up for private coverage were previously insured. A large survey released last week suggests the numbers of uninsured gaining coverage may be smaller. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index found that the uninsured rate for U.S. adults dropped by 1.2 percentage points in January, to 16.1 percent. That would translate to roughly 2 million to 3 million newly insured people since the law's coverage expansion started Jan. 1.
___
OBAMA:
"In the coming weeks, I will issue an executive order requiring federal
contractors to pay their federally funded employees a fair wage of at
least $10.10 an hour, because if you cook our troops' meals or wash
their dishes, you shouldn't have to live in poverty."
THE FACTS: This would be a hefty boost in the federal minimum wage, now $7.25, but not many would see it.
Most
employees of federal contractors already earn more than $10.10. About
10 percent of those workers, roughly 200,000, might be covered by the
higher minimum wage. But there are several wrinkles. The increase would
not take effect until 2015 at the earliest and it doesn't apply to
existing federal contracts, only new ones. Renewed contracts also will
be exempt from Obama's order unless other terms of the agreement change,
such as the type of work or number of employees needed.
Obama
also said he'll press Congress to raise the federal minimum wage
overall. He tried that last year, seeking a $9 minimum, but Congress
didn't act.___
REP.
CATHY McMORRIS RODGERS of Washington, in her prepared Republican
response: "Last month, more Americans stopped looking for a job than
found one. Too many people are falling further and further behind
because, right now, the president's policies are making people's lives
harder."
THE FACTS: She leaves
out a significant factor in the high number of people who aren't
looking for jobs: Baby boomers are retiring.
It's
true that a large part of the still-high unemployment rate is due to
jobless workers who have given up looking for a job. There are roughly
three people seeking every job opening, a circumstance that can
discourage others from trying. But one big reason people aren't seeking
employment is that there are so many boomers — the generation born in
the immediate aftermath of World War II — and therefore more than the
usual number of retirements.
___
Associated
Press writers Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, Christopher S. Rugaber, Joan
Lowy, Sam Hananel and Tom Raum contributed to this report.
EDITOR'S NOTE _ An occasional look at political claims that take shortcuts with the facts or don't tell the full story.