Friday, April 15, 2016

Fox News Poll: Trump widens lead in GOP race, Clinton-Sanders tightens


Donald Trump jumps to an 18-point lead over Ted Cruz this week with record high support for the Republican nomination. 
Trump tops Cruz by 45-27 percent among GOP primary voters in a new Fox News national poll on the 2016 election.  John Kasich comes in third with 25 percent.
Three weeks ago, the mogul was up by three over Cruz:  41-38 percent, with Kasich at 17 percent (March 20-22, 2016).
Forty-five percent is a new high for Trump.  The previous high was last month’s 41 percent.
CLICK TO READ THE POLL RESULTS
Trump’s best numbers come from GOP voters without a college degree (54 percent) and those who describe themselves as “very” conservative (50 percent).
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In contrast, the Democratic race tightened.  Clinton is ahead by two points, edging Bernie Sanders by 48-46 percent.  Last month, before Sanders won eight of the nine most recent contests, she had a 13-point advantage (55-42 percent).
The shift comes from women.  Clinton’s support has declined 11 points among women, while support for Sanders is up by nine.  Support among men mostly held steady -- and it’s in Sanders’ favor: 57-37 percent.

Kasich does best against Democrats, Trump worst
Kasich, who is in third both in polling and the delegate count, likes to tell folks on the campaign trail that most polls show he’s the only Republican who can win in November.
That holds true in these new potential matchups.
Kasich is up by nine points over Clinton (49 vs. 40 percent), while she’s the one who tops Trump (+7 points) and Cruz (+1 point).
The Ohio governor also does best against Sanders.  The Vermont senator trounces Trump (+14 points) and Cruz (+12 points).  Against Kasich, he’s up by just four points.
Still, when voters are asked which Republican candidate has the best chance to defeat Clinton, they pick Trump first (42 percent), followed by Cruz (24 percent) and Kasich (20 percent).  GOP primary voters are even more bullish on Trump: 58 percent say he has the best odds, while 21 percent say Cruz and 16 percent Kasich.
"When it comes to electability, the disconnect between what Republicans think and what the polling data show is astounding," says Daron Shaw, Republican pollster who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. "Close to three times as many think Trump has the best chance against the Democrats despite the fact he's down seven points to Clinton while Kasich is up nine."

Pollpourri
Voters see two nomination battles of strikingly different character.  Eight in 10 say the Republican campaign is “rude and disrespectful” (80 percent), while most think the Democratic side is “polite and respectful” (64 percent).
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,021 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from April 11-13, 2016.  The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters, and 4.5 points for both the Democratic (450) and Republican primary voter samples (419).

Clinton, Sanders ignore Latinos, immigration at testy Brooklyn debate


In the ninth Democratic presidential debate, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders sparred about big banks, foreign policy and gun control.
The showdown took place at a critical time in the race, with the Vermont senator giving the former Secretary of State a much bigger challenge than her campaign ever expected.
Clinton is eyeing a victory in her adopted home state of New York's primary next Tuesday, aiming to blunt Sanders' recent string of primary and caucus victories and put his pursuit of the nomination further out of reach. A Sanders upset – or even a narrow defeat – of Clinton would shake up the race, raising fresh concerns about her candidacy.
The location of the debate – Brooklyn – held significance for both candidates, for different reasons. It is where Sanders was born and where Clinton has her campaign headquarters.
But the two-hour debate in New York, which has the nation’s fourth largest Latino population in the nation, lacked any discussion about one of the most important and fastest-growing electorates.
There was no question – or even a mention by the contenders – of immigration, one of the most debated issues in this presidential election, and the subject of many campaign speeches and advertising by candidates of both parties.
At one point, both Clinton and Sanders spoke about disadvantages faced by minorities, but Latinos were not mentioned.
Sanders made specific reference to African-Americans when he spoke about the overrepresentation of blacks in the prison population,and underemployment and unemployment among young blacks.
Clinton said that whites must face that racism that still exists in the United States.
Unemployment and incarceration rates are also problems in the Latino community, but they were not mentioned. The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People says on its website, "Together, African American and Hispanics comprised 58 percent of all prisoners in 2008, even though African-Americans and Hispanics make up approximately one quarter of the U.S. population."
The only mention of Latinos, in fact, occurred when Clinton described the coalition of voters backing her as including "African-Americans, women, Latinos, union members."
New York's Latino population, at 3.7 million, nearly 20 percent of New York's residents, according to the Pew Research Center.
New York's Latino community is one of the country's most diverse. New York has a large Puerto Rican population, which the late Mayor Ed Koch used to like to note was larger than San Juan's. It's also home to large numbers of Dominicans, Colombians, Cuban-Americans and, in the last 15 years or so, Mexicans who have come seeking higher salaries and more acceptance than they found in states in the Southwest and West.
Nearly two million of New York's Latinos are eligible to vote, according to Pew.
In her opening statement, the former First Lady invoked New York several times, expressing pride in “New York values” – a clear reference to GOP candidate Sen. Ted Cruz, who derided “New York values” during a debate to criticize his rival Donald Trump.
“We will celebrate our diversity, we will work together, bringing us back to being united,” Clinton said. “That’s what I’m offering in this campaign.”
Sanders said in his opening statement that he's determined to end a "rigged economy" where the rich get richer and everyone else gets poorer. He says he wants to create an economy that works for everyone and not just the top one percent of Americans.
Later Sanders questioned Clinton's judgment in supporting the war in Iraq and accepting financial support from super PACs.
He asked, "Do we really feel confident about a candidate saying she is going to bring change in America when she is so dependent on big-money interests?"
Clinton said she would order regulators to break up banks if they don't pass their stress tests or submit adequate "living wills" as required by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill.
Sanders countered that he doesn't need Dodd-Frank's guidelines to tell him the banks are too big.
Sanders recently angered the Clinton campaign when he suggested she was unqualified to be president, an assertion he later walked back. While Clinton didn't explicitly call Sanders unqualified, she has raised questions about the depth of his policy expertise and did so again in the debate.
She noted the "kind of problems" Sanders had answering questions about breaking up big banks and saying he could not answer a number of questions on foreign policy.
Clinton said, "I think you need the judgment on Day 1 to be both president and commander-in-chief."
Sanders had a big victory earlier this month in Wisconsin. But because Democrats award their delegates proportionally instead of a winner-take-all model, he's struggled to cut into the lead Clinton took earlier in the primary season. He's also failed to persuade superdelegates – party insiders who can back the candidate of their choice regardless of how their states vote – to switch from Clinton.
Clinton has accumulated 1,289 pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses while Sanders has 1,038. Her lead grows significantly when the superdelegates are added in: 1,758 to 1,069.
It takes 2,383 delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. Sanders would need to win 68 percent of the remaining delegates and uncommitted superdelegates to reach that figure.
Despite his long odds, Sanders has vowed to stay in the race through the party's convention in July. Backed by legions of loyal supporters, he's amassed impressive fundraising totals that give him the financial wherewithal to do just that.
Still, there have been signs in New York that Clinton is starting to turn her eye toward the general election. She's run two ads here targeting GOP front-runner Donald Trump, a native New Yorker, and his policies on immigration.
And with Trump facing the prospect of a contested convention fight with rival Ted Cruz, Clinton has taken on the Texas senator as well.
"I'm really looking forward to debating either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz," Clinton during a campaign stop in Rochester last week. "I mean, it's going to be good."

Sparks fly over wages, Wall Street and war at heated Clinton-Sanders debate


Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders shelved the niceties and went right after each other’s perceived weak spots at a must-win Democratic primary debate Thursday night where the front-runner challenged her rival’s grasp of complex policy issues – and the insurgent senator hammered her as a Wall Street pal just now talking the talk of working Americans.
The charge crystallized when Clinton seemed to surprise Sanders by declaring she’d back legislation for a $15 federal minimum wage.
“To suddenly announce now you’re for 15, I don’t think is quite accurate,” Sanders said, noting Clinton previously has pushed for increasing the hourly wage to $12. “I think the secretary has confused a lot of people.”
However, Clinton said while she supports the goal of raising the wage to $12, she would sign legislation raising it to $15 if a Democratic Congress passes it.
“I have said from the very beginning that I supported the fight for 15,” Clinton insisted.
The heated dispute, in which the candidates frequently interrupted each other, was one of many at a CNN-hosted debate heavy on populist rhetoric – and personal attacks.
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Sanders at one point went as far as to suggest Clinton’s labeling of certain criminals as "superpredators" when she was first lady was "a racist term and everybody knew it was a racist term."
The two faced off in Brooklyn, for their first debate in more than a month, at a critical time. The campaign heads soon into the final stretch with the upcoming New York primary seen as a determining factor. While Sanders trails badly in delegates, he is pointing to his recent winning streak in insisting he can still “win this nomination.”
“Secretary Clinton cleaned our clock in the deep South. We got murdered there,” he conceded, before adding. “We’re out of the deep South now.”
“I’m not taking anything for granted, or any voter or any place,” Clinton said, while noting she’s gotten millions more votes and saying the party will eventually have to unite.
Eyeing the contest ahead, both candidates courted Empire State voters Thursday by stressing their New York ties – and more broadly, hitting working-class themes.
At the same time, the debate veered heavily into foreign policy in the second half, with Sanders using the issue to challenge Clinton’s judgment while she questioned his experience.
“Describing the problem is a lot easier than trying to solve it,” Clinton said at one point, challenging Sanders as he laid out his goals for achieving Middle East peace.
Sanders also took heat from Clinton for describing Israeli military action as at times disproportionate. “They do not invite rockets raining down on their towns and villages,” she said. Sanders said Israel has a right to defend itself, but the U.S. needs to be even-handed in peace talks.
Sanders, as he has before, hammered Clinton for supporting regime change in Libya and Iraq, warning that it has “unintended consequences.” He said the former secretary of state’s continued support for a no-fly zone in Syria – which he noted President Obama does not support – “runs the risk of getting us sucked into perpetual warfare in that region.”
But Clinton defended her stance, and argued: “Nobody stood up to Assad and removed him and we have had a far greater disaster in Syria.”
Earlier, Sanders also pointed to Clinton’s support for the Iraq war, as well as “virtually every disastrous trade agreement,” in challenging her “judgment” to lead.
However, Clinton fired back, pointing to an editorial board meeting Sanders had with the New York Daily News where he seemed to struggle to explain his plan to break up the banks and various foreign policy positions.
“He could not explain how” he would break up the banks, Clinton said. She defended her own judgment and said: “I think you need to have the judgment on day one to be both president and commander-in-chief.”
While the tone was tougher than past face-offs, the candidates hit several familiar themes. Clinton suggested Sanders is too closely aligned with the gun industry. Sanders knocked Clinton for not releasing transcripts of her past paid speeches (while saying he would soon release a new batch of tax returns).
On that point, Sanders said that despite the financial industry-fueled recession, “Secretary Clinton was busy giving speeches to Goldman Sachs for $225,000 a speech.”
Clinton, though, denied that any of that money influenced her decisions in office. Further, she said, “I stood up against behaviors of the banks when I was a senator.”
Sanders gave a sarcastic retort: “Oh my goodness. They must have been really crushed by this.”
As he did on the minimum wage, Sanders also seemed to accuse Clinton of shifting her position when it came to Social Security taxes, though Clinton again claimed she’s been consistent.
Sanders has been on an election roll lately, winning seven of the last eight state contests, most recently in Wyoming over the weekend. On stage Thursday, he touted his “landslide victories” in recent contests.
But analysts note the primary map could soon be turning back in the front-runner’s favor, not only in New York but other Eastern primary states.
With the stakes getting ever-higher, the tone of the contest had sharpened well before Thursday’s debate. Sanders recently alleged Clinton may not be qualified for president, before walking back the remark. And the Clinton campaign has criticized Sanders for the aggressive efforts by some of his supporters to persuade so-called superdelegates to back the Vermont senator.
Superdelegates are elected officials and other party insiders free to support whomever they want. Most of them are siding with Clinton, giving her an even wider delegate lead. But Clinton noted Thursday night that she holds the pledged delegate lead as well.
Going into the Empire State primary on Tuesday, Clinton so far has held the lead in most polls. Clinton spent eight years as a New York senator.
But Sanders, a Vermont senator who was born in Brooklyn, has been touting his local roots as he seeks to upset Clinton in the state.
While Sanders is on a winning streak in primaries and caucuses, he desperately needs a big victory in New York if he hopes to cut into Clinton's delegate lead and slow her march to the nomination. To date, Clinton has accumulated 1,758 total delegates, compared with Sanders’ 1,069. It takes 2,383 to win.

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Liberal Nut Cartoon


'Duck Dynasty' star's NASCAR prayer enrages liberals


My good buddy Phil Robertson has drawn the ire of a bunch of Jesus-bashing, liberal lug nuts after he petitioned the Lord during a NASCAR invocation to put a “Jesus-Man in the White House.”
Brother Phil delivered the pre-race invocation on April 9th at the Texas Motor Speedway’s Duck Commander 500. And it was a mighty fine invocation, indeed.
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“I pray Father that we put a Jesus-Man in the White House,” he prayed. “Help us do that and help us all to repent, to do what is right, to love you more and to love each other. In the name of Jesus I pray, amen.”
Brother Phil also mentioned the Bible, guns and thanked the Good Lord for the United States military – just like any good church-going, Christian man would do.
But the Duck Commander’s heartfelt invocation caused the Mainstream Media to blow a collective head gasket.
Sports commentators and journalists suggested pre-race prayers were too “Southern” and too “redneck.” As if there’s something wrong with being a Southern-fried redneck?
Deadspin called Brother Phil an “unapologetic bigot” and a “duck call industrialist.”
The Associated Press auto racing writer accused Brother Phil of pushing an agenda – and accused NASCAR of “clouding its image with politics.”
“There are Democrats who enjoy NASCAR,” writer Jenna Fryer sneered. “Jews and atheists and women, too.”
Consider the words from this Orlando Sentinel column titled, “NASCAR doesn’t need Phil Robertson’s prayers.”
“What if at next Sunday’s race, someone got up and prayed for gun control, the Koran and that a Muhammad-woman be put in the White House?” writer David Whitley opined. “Most of the people defending Robertson would be throwing tire irons at their TVs.”
Well, I sincerely doubt a devout Muslim would be asking Allah to put a “Muhammad-woman” anywhere near the White House. And let’s be honest, you don’t see too many burkas at Bristol.
“Beyond the Flag” ran an essay written by Christopher Olmstead that contemplated whether or not religion still belongs in NASCAR.
“For a sport that is trying to become a global success is it appropriate to attach a certain religion or religious tone to yourself? For a sport that might have several drivers who might not believe in God or religion is it appropriate to hold the pre-race invocation? For a sport that is trying to reach out to different cultures around the world who may believe in a higher power other than God, is it appropriate to have the invocation?”
It’s tempting to tell Brother Phil’s critics to blow it out their tail pipes – but that’s not the Christian thing to do.
And besides – Brother Phil has more supporters than detractors – including the president of Texas Motor Speedway.
“He said what he felt and believed there are a lot of people that agree with him and a lot that disagree with him,” Eddie Gossage told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “Nowadays, you cannot say what you think because of political correctness. So I guess everyone has a right to free speech or nobody does.”
Prayer is an important part of Southern culture. It’s what we do. It’s who we are -- whether we’re asking the Good Lord to bless the butter beans or offering an “unspoken” prayer request before Bible Study.
And that’s why the Mainstream Media may be in for a rude awakening if they think they can “prayer-shame” the good, church-going racing fans of America. It’s not going to happen.
Why, NASCAR without Jesus would be like biscuits without gravy.

It's not like sports: Why the candidate with the most delegates may lose out


The Washington Post declares that Ted Cruz “is close to ensuring that Donald Trump cannot win the GOP nomination on a second ballot.” 
Which, if true, would mean Donald Trump’s only shot would be to win it on the first try.
But wait! RNC rules committee member Randy Evans told “Morning Joe” yesterday that Trump will be the nominee if he manages to win 1,100 delegates—in short, that 1,100 is the new 1,237.
Every hour, it seems, some pundit or politico is handicapping the hand-to-hand combat over delegates and praising or denouncing the procedures for picking a nominee.
When you play baseball, or football, or basketball, there are all kinds of rules—balk, roughing the passer, 24-second-violation—but even if the contest goes into overtime, the team with the most runs or points wins. Presidential campaigns, not so much.
The insiders can literally move the goalposts, by changing the rules for the convention. In 2012, Mitt Romney’s forces didn’t want anyone else seizing the spotlight, so they pushed through rules requiring a candidate to have won eight states to be nominated. That rule could be tossed out in 2016 if the rules committee wants to lower the bar.
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With Trump saying the system is rigged and Cruz accusing him of whining, the system itself is on trial.
Suddenly, I’m not hearing about tax cuts. I’m not hearing about health care. I’m not hearing about ISIS. I’m hearing about the arcane Colorado selection process that gave the store to Cruz, and how Cruz won 11 of 12 delegates selected so far in Arkansas, and complaints that some in Trump’s orbit are being heavy-handed in their comments about targeting delegates.
Here we have Trump on the verge of a major victory in New York next week, and leading in Pennsylvania and Maryland the following week, and the media’s focus is on state-by-state rules—driven in part by Trump denouncing what happened in Colorado as a disgrace.
Now I get that the rules were established in advance and every campaign has to adapt to them. And I get that there are times that Trump has benefitted from formulas that awarded him a greater share of delegates than his percentage of the popular vote. And yes, as Al Gore reminded the country, you can win the most votes and still lose the presidency.
Clearly, the Cruz camp is far better organized for this sort of political infighting than the Trump team. But that argument misses the resonance of Trump’s complaint that insiders are gaming the system when he wins Colorado and gets zero delegates, without most Republicans having a chance to vote.
By the way, this CNN video underscores the absurdity of the process, showing how Colorado picked among 600 delegates from an assembly line in which they each got to make 10-second speeches.
Once we get to Cleveland, the Post says, “Cruz is poised to pick up at least 130 more votes on a second ballot…That tally surpasses 170 delegates under less conservative assumptions — a number that could make it impossible for Trump to emerge victorious.”
Well, maybe. While 95 percent of all delegates are bound to their state’s winner on the first ballot, nearly 60 percent will be unbound on a second ballot, and 80 percent on a third ballot, the paper says.
Of course the media have to cover the procedural battle over luring delegates in one state after another. In the end, math matters. But they shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that Trump will go to the convention with the largest bloc of delegates, and depriving him of the prize will be ugly no matter how skillfully the rules are exploited.
Howard Kurtz is a Fox News analyst and the host of "MediaBuzz" (Sundays 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. ET). He is the author of five books and is based in Washington. Follow him at @HowardKurtz. Click here for more information on Howard Kurtz.

Trump vows Mexico border wall will be built within two years


Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said Wednesday that his proposed wall across the U.S.-Mexico border would be completed within two years.
"I would say it would be complete within two years from the time we start, we'll start quickly," Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity at a town hall in Pittsburgh, Pa. "We'll start quickly, and it will be a real wall. It will be a real wall."
The self-imposed deadline was the most detail Trump has offered about his controversial proposal aimed at preventing illegal immigration. At one point, the crowd at the Soldiers & Sailors Memorial Hall began chanting "Build the wall! Build the wall!"
Trump followed that outburst with a call-and-response, asking the crowd "Who's gonna pay for the wall?"
After the crowd responded, "Mexico!", Trump told Hannity, "They'll pay in one form or another."
Trump again accused Colorado Republican officials of changing the rules of the state’s convention to select delegates for this summer's national convention in Cleveland after he officially announced his candidacy in June 2015.
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“When I went into the race, which was in the middle of June—after that, they changed the whole thing in Colorado,” Trump said. “I would’ve done great in Colorado [if they didn’t] have this arcane [delegate] system that nobody understands.
“My delegates went there, they wouldn’t put them on the list, then they even did “Never Trump, Never Trump,” the real estate mogul added, referring to a now-deleted tweet from the state party’s official Twitter account that included the hashtag popular among Trump's detractors. The Colorado GOP blamed the miscue on “unauthorized access” in a later tweet.
Trump also criticized April 26’s Pennsylvania primary. Voters there will award 17 delegates to the statewide winner and 54 additional delegates will be elected directly by the voters. But ballots will not identify which candidate each of the additional 54 delegates have pledged to support. Some of the delegate names will be recognizable local officials, while others may be less-identifiable to voters.
“I could win Pennsylvania by a landslide…get 17 delegates, and somebody else could get 35 or 40, and they didn’t even win—but they have connections to the machine. It’s not right,” Trump said. "We have to bring the voter back into it."
Trump also touched on his meeting earlier Wednesday with Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, with whom he has carried on a months-long dispute.
"She was very, very nice," Trump said. "Maybe it was time or maybe she felt it was time. I give her a lot of credit for doing what she did."

Trump campaign manager won't be prosecuted on battery charge


Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's campaign manager will not be prosecuted on a charge of misdemeanor battery over allegations he grabbed the arm of a reporter, the campaign confirmed late Wednesday.
Trump campaign social media director Dan Scavino posted on his Facebook page that the charge would not be pressed against Corey Lewandowski.
 
The decision not to prosecute Lewandowski was first reported by Politico. Palm Beach County State Attorney David Aronberg was scheduled to formally announce his decision on Thursday afternoon.
The incident occurred after a March 8 press conference at the Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Fla., where Lewandowski was accused by Michelle Fields, a reporter for Breitbart at the time, of grabbing her arm as she asked the Republican front-runner a question.
Lewandowski initially denied the incident had taken place.
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However, the Jupiter Police Department obtained video from the ballroom that it said paralleled Fields' version of events, and subsequently charged Lewandowski.
The police report says Lewandowski "grabbed Fields left arm with his right hand, causing her to turn and step back."
Fields told Fox News' Megyn Kelly in a "Kelly File" interview Wednesday night that she is planning to pursue a civil case against Lewandowski for defamation.
She also responded in a series of tweets on reports that Lewandowski won't be charged.
"Prosecutor's office told me they would inform me of decision tomorrow. If reports true, guess they decided to leak to reporters first. Ugly," she wrote.
Mike Edmonson, Aronberg's executive assistant, denied leaking the information to the media, but added that the initial report that Lewandowski would not be prosecuted was "not incorrect."
"For those asking, office of prosecutor asked 2 weeks ago if I'd be ok with an apology from Corey. I said ya but haven't heard back about it," Fields added.
Trump has staunchly defended his campaign manager after he was charged, as the Republican front-runner suggested the reporter could have been perceived as a threat.
 
“She's grabbing my arm. She's not supposed to. She broke through Secret Service, she is asking questions,” Trump told Fox News last month. “She's got a pen in her arm, which she's not supposed to have. It shows that she's a very aggressive person who is grabbing at me and touching me. Maybe I should file charges against her.”
If reporter Michelle Fields really had fallen, Trump said, “He would have been fired before she even got up.”
The counter-accusations made clear that Trump and his team would continue to fight the charges.
Fields, meanwhile, stood by her claims. And after Trump earlier suggested she changed her story, she pushed back.
“Seriously, just stop lying,” she told Trump on Twitter.
The Trump campaign issued a statement after the charges were announced calling Lewandowski “absolutely innocent.”
“Mr. Lewandowski was issued a notice to appear and was given a court date. He was not arrested. Mr. Lewandowski is absolutely innocent of this charge,” spokeswoman Hope Hicks said in a statement. “He will enter a plea of not guilty and looks forward to his day in court. He is completely confident that he will be exonerated.”

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