The fight for the House majority is over.
At least that's the sense from a growing number of
Democrats who are increasingly confident in their quest to seize control
of at least one chamber of Congress six weeks before Election Day.
The surging optimism among Democrats, usually shared in
private, has begun to spill into the open as President Donald Trump's
approval ratings sink and the Republican Party struggles under the
weight of the president's self-imposed political crises and erratic
behavior.
"I do believe Democrats will win back the House of
Representatives," said New Mexico Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, chairman of the
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "Our candidates are in a
strong position."
Democratic confidence is particularly strong among
campaign operatives who work closely with women, a critical voting bloc
that has turned away from Trump's GOP in the suburban and exurban
districts where the House majority will be won or lost this fall. Polls
suggest women are turbocharged and eager to punish Trump's party as the
voting season begins.
"I have all intentions of this institution delivering
the U.S. House back for the Democrats," said Stephanie Schriock,
president of EMILY'S List, an organization that supports female
Democrats. "We have the candidates in place to do that and then some."
But with the shock of Trump's 2016 victory still fresh,
some Democrats are painfully aware that significant factors could
emerge in the 45 days before the election that could derail their
presumptive success. They're contending with massive spending by GOP
super PACs, competing in gerrymandered congressional districts and are
increasingly worried about some key candidates.
That's leaving some top Democrats warning their party of the dangers of overconfidence.
"This is no time for confidence. This is no time for
braggadociousness or bluster," New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker told The
Associated Press in a recent interview.
Booker, a potential 2020 Democratic presidential
contender, reminded his party of Hillary Clinton's stunning loss in the
last presidential contest: "If there's any complacency, if there's any
resting on their laurels, we need to go back to how people felt in the
early days of November 2016."
That's a tough message to push at a time when even
Republican campaign professionals publicly and privately acknowledge
that conventional metrics for predicting election outcomes favor
Democrats.
At this point in President Barack Obama's first term,
Gallup reported the Democrat's approval rating at least five points
higher than Trump's current 38 percent approval. Obama's party would go
on to lose 63 House seats in 2010.
On top of Trump's low approval, Republicans this year
have also been saddled by more than 40 House retirements, ceding the
power of incumbency in several competitive races. And there are
continued signs that the Democratic base is far more energized in the
early years of the Trump era than the GOP.
"I would never tell a politician to be confident
because of how the world changes," said Republican strategist Rick
Tyler. "But by applying those metrics, Democrats should pick up 80
seats."
Former Democratic National Committee Chair Donna
Brazile turned heads in a recent interview with ABC when she predicted a
Democratic takeover in the Senate. Democrats need to pick up just two
seats to claim the Senate majority, but most of the competitive Senate
contests this year takes place in a Republican-leaning state.
"We're confident," Brazile said. "Not overconfident, but confident that we can run the tables in the Senate."
Money could complicate Democrats' plans.
While Democratic House candidates are outraising their
GOP competitors in many cases, Republicans are expected to win the
larger spending battle largely because of their reliance on Super PACs
that can raise unlimited sums of money.
Schriock said EMILY'S List expects to spend $37 million
to influence the election, outpacing its investment in the last
presidential contest. On the other side, the Congressional Leadership
Fund, a super PAC allied with House Speaker Paul Ryan, expects to spend
roughly $100 million.
Already, the Republican powerhouse has committed more
than $70 million to shape the House landscape, primarily by running
attack ads to put Democratic candidates on defense as the midterm season
moves into its final weeks.
In Minnesota, which
began early voting on Friday ,
Ryan's super PAC is dumping $8 million into an advertising campaign
targeting two congressional districts. They include the 8th district,
where 32-year-old former Democratic state Rep. Joe Radinovich faced
charges that "he's spent his life running from the law" in a recent ad
that cites multiple traffic violations.
Radinovich's campaign called the claims "egregious" and
"disgraceful," saying it falsely portrayed unpaid parking tickets as
crimes and misrepresents a marijuana-related citation that the Democrat
received as a teen.
Fair or not, the Republican attacks are jeopardizing an open seat in a Democratic-leaning state.
It's not the only one.
Democrats are struggling for traction in a series of
contests that should be prime pickup opportunities — on paper, at least.
Polling suggests several vulnerable Republicans in swing districts are
performing better than expected, a list that includes Reps. Carlos
Curbelo of Florida, Will Hurd of Texas, and John Katko of New York.
And in Florida's 27th district, a heavily Hispanic open
seat in Miami, former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala
is locked in a surprisingly close contest with Republican Maria Elvira
Salazar, a well-known Hispanic television reporter.
But don't relay those concerns to the people who lined
up for hours outside Philadelphia's Dell Music Center on Friday to see
Obama rally Democratic voters in a pivotal swing state.
Della Jamison, a 65-year-old Democrat from North
Philadelphia, was exuberant about her party's chances when asked. In
Pennsylvania alone, Democrats envision flipping a half dozen House
seats.
"We are on the battlefield, baby," Jamison said. "It's already done."
