On
Wednesday, Martha talks to politically knowledgeable Chris Stirewalt
about the upcoming elections and how the midterms are shaking out so far
across the country, along with a small update on how things are faring
in the South with Hurricane Michael, as Melania weighs in on #metoo.
With
less than a month until the midterm elections, Republicans are now
going on the offensive in several Senate races as part of a
reinvigorated effort not only to hold onto their slim majority in the
upper chamber but to expand it significantly.
Meanwhile,
analysts are warning
that Democrats, who extensively focused in recent months on longshot
bids to derail Republican candidates in reliably red states, may have
neglected critical Midwest battleground states in a miscalculation
reminiscent of the 2016 presidential election.
Three pivotal Senate races have shifted in the GOP's favor in
Fox News' latest Power Rankings,
with Texas and North Dakota now considered likely Republican wins, and
Tennessee changing from a toss-up to the lean-Republican column.
In Texas, a
new Quinnipiac University poll released
Thursday shows Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke trailing incumbent Sen.
Ted Cruz by 9 points. "Senator Cruz would have to suffer a major
collapse for him to lose" his Senate seat, said Peter Brown, the poll's
assistant director.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: PUMP UP THE VOLUME AS MIDTERMS APPROACH
Those results mirror a Quinnipiac poll from several weeks ago, suggesting that O'Rourke's momentum has flatlined.
"Sen. Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose."
— Quinnipiac University poll director Peter Brown
And
in another high-profile race, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., has
surged to a double-digit lead over challenger Phil Bredesen, according
to an in-progress
New York Times poll. A
CBS News poll last week showed Blackburn leading Bredesen by 8 points.
Bredesen last week
secured the endorsement of music superstar Taylor Swift, who said Blackburn's voting records "appalls and terrifies" her. Bredesen
broke with his fellow Democrats
and voiced support for then-Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh as a
series of uncorroborated sexual misconduct allegations were leveled
against him.
Several campaign volunteers abandoned Bredesen after he announced his position on Kavanaugh,
Politico reported Wednesday.
“As a woman voter in Tennessee, I felt torpedoed by the statement,” one organizer in Memphis, Rhonda McDowell, told the outlet.
Retiring
Republican Sen. Bob Corker, who holds the seat Bredesen and Blackburn
are seeking, last week told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer,
D-N.Y., that Democrats' scorched-earth tactics on Kavanaugh had badly
damaged Bredesen, who needs conservative support to prevail in
Tennessee.
Analysts say that Democrats' faltering bids to retake
two seats in traditionally red states has parallels to the 2016
presidential race, when
breathless news reports suggested Hillary Clinton had a chance at winning Texas.
"Liberal
activists and online media [are] touting Democratic chances and paying
more attention to stretch cases like Texas and Tennessee, when the
Democrats need to protect vulnerable incumbents in states like
Missouri and Indiana," Michigan State University political science
professor Matt Grossman told Fox News.
GOP ENTHUSIASM SURGES AMID KAVANAUGH SLUGFEST, BOOSTING REPUBLICANS ACROSS THE BOARD
"That
reminded me of talks about possible Democratic wins in Arizona,
Georiga, and Texas in 2016, when Clinton had to protect the Midwest
states," he added.
Fox News ranks
the Senate races in Indiana and Missouri as toss-ups, as vulnerable
incumbent Democratic Sens. Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill,
respectively, try to fend off challengers in states President Trump won
by double-digits in 2016. Both voted against Kavanaugh, which has
become a central issue in both contests.
The
Kavanaugh effect appears to have had the biggest effect on another
vulnerable incumbent Democrat, North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp. She
trails Republican challenger Kevin Cramer by 12 points. Last month,
before Heitkamp voiced her reluctance to support Kavanaugh, he was up by
only 4 points.
HEITKAMP SLAMS HILLARY FOR 'RIDICULOUS' CLAIM THAT CIVILITY IS IMPOSSIBLE WITH GOP
“That spectacle proved to be perhaps the greatest political gift I’ve been given in a very long time,” Cramer said.
"The most recent polling suggests it’s going to be a tale of two elections."
— Republican strategist Bruce Mehlman
And
a new poll
in another red state, West Virginia, shows incumbent Democrat Joe
Manchin leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey by just one point. But
the poll, which was commissioned by national Republicans and the
Morrisey campaign, is an outlier.
Manchin's last-minute support
for Kavanaugh, who is highly popular in West Virginia, has become a key
issue in the campaign, with Morrisey calling Manchin's vote a "craven
political calculation."
Speaking exclusively to Fox News Wednesday
night, President Trump said Republican candidates are moving to take
advantage of the encouraging numbers.
“The fact is I think we are
doing really well,” Trump said. “Many of the Senate races that we didn’t
think we were going to be contesting, we are now leading. We have some
great candidates. And, very importantly, we are finding the same thing
now with the House.”
Grossman, who also directs Michigan State's
Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, cited an additional
challenge for moderate senators like Heitkamp and Manchin who often buck
their party: Congressional races are increasingly becoming
nationalized. He cited a variety of factors to explain that trend,
including greater interest in national media sources, President Trump's
larger-than-life profile, and more cohesive top-down party messaging.
While
indicators are strong for Republicans in the Senate, the map is also
working in the GOP's favor. There are nine Senate seats currently held
by Democrats in states that went for Trump in 2016 but just one
Republican incumbent running in a state carried by Clinton.
That
state, Nevada, is home to a tight race that Fox News currently considers
a toss-up, as incumbent Sen. Dean Heller faces off against Jacky Rosen.
And a state that Trump carried in 2016, Arizona, is also considered a
toss-up, as Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has polled narrowly ahead of
Republican Martha McSally to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Jeff
Flake.
Meanwhile, in the House, where all seats are up for grabs, signs are less favorable for the GOP. A
new poll from Quinnipiac University showed that 49 percent of voters preferred that the Democrats take back Congress, compared with 42 percent for Republicans.
“The
most recent polling suggests it’s going to be a tale of two elections,
with center-left voters powering Democratic gains in the House and
center-right voters expanding Republicans’ Senate majority," Republican
strategist Bruce Mehlman told Fox News.
ANALYSIS: WHAT TO EXPECT AS MIDTERM CHAOS CONTINUES
Mehlman
pointed to other signs of a possible impending "blue wave" in the
House. For example, Trump's approval rating is roughly consistent with
that of other presidents' in recent decades when their party saw major
losses in Congress. Presidents with higher approval ratings tend to see
their party retain more seats.
Still, there were some signs of resurgence this week for Republicans in the House, as well. Florida’s
highly competitive 27th Congressional District,
which Clinton won by a 20-point margin over Trump in 2016, had been
considered one of the easiest seats in the country for Democrats to pick
up just months ago.
But the race to replace retiring Republican
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is now only a "Lean Democrat" race according to
Fox News' latest Midterm Power Rankings. Donna Shalala, the Democratic
candidate, is facing a spirited challenge from her lesser-known GOP
opponent, Spanish-language journalist and political rookie, Maria Elvira
Salazar.
“This will be the marker for, if and possibly when, the
Democrats might pick up the House for the 2018 elections,” said Florida
International University political science professor Kathryn DePalo. “If
Democrats pick this up, then I think it’ll be a good night for
Democrats in Florida and perhaps around the country.”
In a
statement to Fox News, a spokesperson for the National Republican
Congressional Committee was bullish on the district: "In a district that
Clinton won by 20 points, this is shaping up to be a devastating loss
for Democrats.”
Fox News' Chris Stirewalt and Allie Raffa contributed to this report.