Four things jump off the page when one conducts a deep examination of this autumn’s midterm House elections:
- The
historic norms favor the opposition party of the President by a lot in
House races. The President’s party loses an average of 29 House seats in
most midterms.
- The sheer number of open seats which House
Republicans must defend this fall is off the chart. More than 40
Republican seats are wide open.
- Dismiss out the paradigmatic
norms. We operate now in the age of President Trump. Mr. Trump rode an
inside straight to the White House two years ago. The rules have
changed. Mr. Trump is a special phenomenon in American politics. Most
midterm elections are a referendum on the first two years of a new
President. Study what happened to President Clinton in 1994 and
President Obama in 2010. Voters repudiated both chief executives with
historic pickups, flipping control of the House. It’s unknown if
supporters of President Trump show up just to cast a ballot for someone not named President Trump. That’s why it’s nearly impossible to determine how this election will go down.
- It’s
likely to be close when it comes down to House control. Democrats must
marshal a net gain of 23 seats to win the House. It could boil down to
the outcome of three to five seats in either direction. Thus, it’s
entirely possible we might not know which party has the House until a
few days later.
Party insiders and analysts believe 15-18 Republican seats are gone,
no matter what happens. Some seats are more “gone” than others. A good
example of this is a seat held by former Rep. Patrick Meehan, R-Pa. The
redistricted seat heavily favors Democrats by close to 30 points.
Similar circumstances prevail in the district held by retiring Rep. Ryan
Costello, R-Pa. One can locate other examples in New Jersey where Reps.
Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-N.J. and Frank LoBiondo, R-N.J., are quitting,
too.
If Democrats win the House, it will be because of a “red
tide” out to sea, not a “blue wave” crashing in. It’s hard for
Republicans to defend so many vacant seats. If Democrats win the House,
the GOP “open seat” dynamic may emerge as the most important factor in
this midterm election.
Democrats have their Achilles Heel in these midterms, too.
It’s
conceivable that Democratic candidates could rattle off lots of wins in
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, California, Michigan,
Illinois and Texas. But those Democratic “flips” could be offset by
potential Republican pick-ups elsewhere.
Consider the seat
currently held by Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev. A House freshman, Rosen is
abandoning that seat to challenge Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev. Rosen
narrowly won election to the House two years ago as Republican Danny
Tarkanian - son of legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian -
held her below 50 percent. Democrats didn’t fare very well in many
states in 2016. But Democrats excelled in Nevada. Still, President Trump
carried Rosen’s district by a solitary percentage point. Tarkanian
initially intended to challenge Heller. But Mr. Trump personally
convinced Tarkanian to again run for the House, this time against
Democrat Susie Lee. Tarkanian has run for the Senate and House without
success over the years. That’s remarkable considering the credibility of
his surname in Nevada. As we said earlier, just a handful of seats
could determine control of the House. If Tarkanian finally wins and
Republicans maintain control of the House by a whisker, experts will
laud Mr. Trump’s decision to persuade Tarkanian to again run for the
House versus the Senate. It could prove to be the shrewdest move of the
entire campaign cycle.
Democrats must defend an open seat along
the Iron Range of Minnesota. Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN) is retiring after
barely keeping the seat in Democratic hands the past several cycles.
Republican Pete Stauber is running against Democrat Joe Radinovich.
Hillary Clinton secured a scant 38 percent of the vote in this rural
district two years ago.
Then there is New Hampshire’s First
Congressional District. This district is the most volatile in the
nation. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., switched it to Democratic
control in 2006 and held it in 2008. But the seat has gone Republican in
every midterm since – with Shea-Porter rallying to return to Washington
in each presidential election. President Trump won this district by two
percentage points even as Shea-Porter reclaimed the seat in 2016.
Shea-Porter is retiring at the end of this term. Republican Eddie
Edwards is up against Democrat Chris Pappas this fall.
In short,
Democrats may make great gains elsewhere. But Democrats will fail to
secure the majority if they lose seats like these.
There’s also another problem for Democrats in Florida.
Rep.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., is retiring. She’s one of the most
moderate Republicans in the House. Hillary Clinton won Ros-Lehtinen’s
district by a staggering 19 points. Former Clinton Administration Health
and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala is the Democratic nominee
and faces Republican Maria Salazar. Here’s the issue for Democrats:
Democratic insiders have long expressed concern about Shalala’s
performance in the district. At 77-years-old, a Shalala victory would
make her the second-oldest House freshman in history. Democrats have
also struggled to earn traction in that district among Latino voters.
This is a district which should be a lock for Democrats on paper.
However, it’s anything but.
There’s danger for Republicans, too.
GOPers
who represent urban and suburban areas could find themselves on the
wrong end of an anti-Trump backlash. This is why Reps. Andy Barr,
R-Ken., Kevin Yoder, R-Kan, John Culberson, R-Texas, Pete Roskam,
R-Ill., Mike Coffman, R-Colo., and French Hill, R-Ark., might struggle.
Democratic victories in seats like these could propel Democrats to the
majority.
That said, rural Republicans could benefit from a
targeted bump after the bruising fight to confirm Supreme Court Justice
Brett Kavanaugh. The Kavanaugh imbroglio ignited passions on both sides.
An anti-Kavanaugh boost may help Democrat Jennifer Wexton defeat Rep.
Barbara Comstock, R-Va., in the Washington, DC suburbs. But a
pro-Kavanaugh spike could bolster Reps. Bruce Poliquin , R-Maine, and
Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., in districts where the President remains
popular.
There are several districts which bear watching in this matrix:
Rep.
Steve Chabot, R-Ohio, is in a race against Democrat Aftab Pureval in
southwestern Ohio. Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., is running for governor of
New Mexico. Vying for Pearce’s seat in southern New Mexico are Democrat
Xochitl Torres Small and Republican Yvette Herrell. Also, consider the
contest between the aforementioned French Hill against Democrat Clarke
Tucker. Note two Washington state races. House Republican Conference
Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., is up against Democrat Lisa
Brown. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, R-Wash., faces Democrat Carolyn Long.
If Democrats win even one of those races, that’s a signal Democrats will likely win the House.
Democrats
don’t have to win all of these races. And there are plenty of pathways
for Democrats to earn control of the House without winning any of those
seats mentioned above. However, these seats are bellwethers. Turning any
of them from red to blue could provide a clue as to which party will be
in charge of the House next year.