McCarthy is favorite to get speaker role if Republicans keep House, but not a shoo-in

Who will be what in the House in the 116th Congress is as muddled as it’s been in decades.
We start today with a look at the GOP leadership contests and scenarios. We’ll evaluate the Democrats later in the week.
Here’s the process. The full House votes for speaker on January 3, 2019. The winning candidate must secure an outright majority of the entire House: at least 218 votes cast by the 435 members. The Democrats will formally nominate one candidate. The Republicans another. But it’s not unusual for members of both parties to cast ballots for someone besides the formal nominees. Plus, the House Speaker doesn’t have to be a member of the body.
The House Democratic Caucus and House Republican Conference will likely meet in late November or early December to select their candidates. Only members who prevailed in the midterm election and will be part of the 116th Congress will take part in this internal election.
Who assumes the speakership in addition to who emerges as the top leaders on both sides of the aisle hinges on which party is in charge - and by how many seats - in the new Congress.
House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., is retiring. For the GOP, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is the odds-on favorite to become speaker if Republicans maintain the majority. But there’s a reason why McCarthy isn't the speaker now.
The California Republican lacked the votes to succeed former House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, when he retired three years ago. Remember, the speaker must secure an absolute majority of the entire House. McCarthy far and away held a majority of Republicans. But with the entire House voting, McCarthy appeared to lack just enough votes to become speaker due to a few Republican defections.
This is the problem for McCarthy: Let’s hypothetically say Republicans retain the House with 230 seats. All McCarthy needs in the GOP Conference vote is 116 supporters. One more than 50 percent. However, he’ll need 218 on the floor. McCarthy would likely score a majority of the Republican Conference. But McCarthy’s potential matriculation to the speakership swings on the size of a prospective Republican majority in the 116th Congress.
Factionalism dominated the House Republican Conference after the departure of Boehner. Ryan was the only figure most Republicans could universally embrace – although it took a while for Ryan to come around to wanting the job himself. McCarthy likely has a direct route to the speaker’s suite if the GOP holds the House by a substantial margin. But McCarthy’s chances diminish with each seat Republicans lose next week. McCarthy’s chances of becoming Speaker decline geometrically if Republicans salvage control of the House by just a handful of seats. That’s because there are more than five to six Republicans who would support someone besides McCarthy. In fact, this particular scenario is precisely the situation the Majority Leader faced in 2015.
But McCarthy may have a wildcard tucked into his vest: the possible support of President Trump. It’s unknown if the president would wade into a House GOP leadership contest. During this term, Mr. Trump periodically chirped about what he interpreted as deficiencies with Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ken. McCarthy has worked to become the President’s most-trusted ally in leadership. An endorsement by President Trump could be just the boost McCarthy needs.
In a weird way, McCarthy may have a better shot at becoming minority leader than speaker should the GOP lose the House. The House elects the speaker on the floor. The House Republican Conference internally metes out all other leadership positions by a majority vote. For the sake of argument, imagine Republicans lose the House and dip to 212 seats. That means McCarthy - or any other successful candidate – needs the support of only 107 Republicans. Fifty percent plus one.
It may be a little warped, but losing the House could be the best outcome for McCarthy himself.
Why might McCarthy lack the votes? The biggest reason lies with the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Freedom Caucus Leader Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., and leader emeritus Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, control about 40-plus votes. That’s enough to deny McCarthy the speakership right there. And guess who’s running for speaker? Jim Jordan.
Many in the Freedom Caucus don’t think the current leadership team has been aggressive enough in efforts to hold the feet of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to the fire over alleged FISA abuse and the Russia probe. Some Republicans also don’t like how the current GOP brass addressed border wall funding. Both issues could be litmus tests in the pending leadership skirmish.
There’s a reason why Jordan appears regularly on cable news and attends most if not all closed-door interviews as part of the Russia investigation. By the same token, there’s a reason why McCarthy recently unveiled a plan to fully fund the border wall. Both lawmakers are trying to court votes.
It’s unclear if Jordan could expand his universe of potential votes much beyond the Freedom Caucus. A lot of rank-and-file House Republicans don’t like the Molotov cocktail political tactics of the Freedom Caucus. That could cap Jordan’s vote total in the sixties to eighties on a good day. That also means Jordan may not command enough votes to win an official leadership race inside the GOP Conference.
But, Jordan and the Freedom Caucus could be kingmakers, whether Republicans are in the majority or minority.
That brings us to House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La.
It wasn’t that long ago that many believed Scalise maxed out at the number three position in the House Republican hierarchy. But Scalise now commands extraordinary respect, adulation and sympathy among rank-and-file Republicans after taking a bullet at last year’s GOP baseball practice – and then rallying back to health.
Scalise has made it clear he won’t directly challenge McCarthy. But Scalise could become a key candidate for any leadership position – in the majority or minority – depending on McCarthy’s fate.
This is why the leadership fights could get rather interesting.
Some Republicans may try to court House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, R-Texas, for a spot. After all, it was Brady who navigated the choppy waters of tax reform and put a bill on the president’s desk to sign last year. The Texas Republican delegation remains the largest in the House GOP Conference. Marshalling the unanimous backing of Texas GOPers alone grants a candidate about a quarter of the votes they need in an internal House Republican leadership race.
That’s why other Texans like House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway, R-Texas, and Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas, could also emerge as factors in the leadership matrix.
GOPers widely applaud Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., the chief deputy whip, for his political acumen, granular understanding of House districts and vote-counting skills. The GOP brass leaned on McHenry during Scalise’s prolonged convalescence. McHenry could become either the chairman or top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee in the next Congress. Or McHenry could also be destined for a higher leadership post.
Other names to watch: Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio. Stivers leads the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and GOP re-election efforts this cycle. House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Rob Bishop, R-Utah, is the former speaker of the Utah legislature. The name of Rep. Mark Walker, R-N.C., surfaces occasionally. Walker chairs the Republican Study Committee (RSC), the largest bloc of conservatives in the House. Finally, all of the names mentioned above are men. That’s where House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., comes in. That said, the district McMorris Rodgers represents is one which could flip if Democrats successfully ride a wave to the majority.
There are also some darkhorse leadership candidates. Keep an eye on Reps. Greg Walden, R-Ore., Richard Hudson, R-N.C., and Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio.
All of this is contingent upon which party controls the House and by how many votes. No one knows how this is going to turn out.
We’ll assess the Democrats leadership races next time. And be forewarned. The picture on that side of the aisle is just as confounding.

Fox News Power Rankings: Texas and New Jersey act alike

There are a few different ways to think about this year’s elections.
There are two scenarios that have relatively low probabilities but are about equally likely:
1) Democrats, relying on many new and low-propensity voters, have been consistently understated in polls and are poised to make historic gains in the House and Senate.
2) Republicans will repeat their 2016 performance with suburbanites and beat the polls by a narrow but consistent margin sufficient to barely hold the House and make considerable gains in the Senate.
There’s also the highest probability scenario: That Democrats will flip enough Republican seats to take the House and take a relatively narrow majority of about a dozen seats but actually lose ground in the Senate, where Republicans seem well-positioned to add one or two seats to their current 51-seat majority.
We think that the split decision model makes the most sense and has the most evidence to support it. But then again, as Crash Davis said, “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.” A little humility is never a bad idea in the business of predictions.
In that spirit, we offer a pair of changes to the Fox News Power Rankings. As always, you can see all our rankings here, but today please consider a couple of long shots that might see incumbents coming up short: New Jersey and Texas.
The races look remarkably similar from a distance. Both feature incumbents who are less popular than their parties in their respective states and both have seen an avalanche of spending against them not nearly commensurate with their competitiveness relative to other contests.
Fortunately, we have more and better polling in these states than in many other Senate contests. And in both cases, the incumbents lead by an average of about 7 points in the three most recent, methodologically sound polls, and both incumbents are getting, on average, more than half of the vote.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, 51.3 percent to 44.6 percent.
Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., leads businessman Bob Hugin 50.3 percent to 43.3 percent.
Given the margins of the abundant polling, electoral composition of the states and the political climate, we had been content to call both of these races “likely.” But there’s something else to consider: Both Texas and New Jersey fit well into the “blue wave” and “red wall” scenarios quite well.
First, New Jersey. Menendez is not a well-liked politician, even in his own party. His decision to seek a third term despite a federal corruption prosecution and an admonishment from the Senate Committee on Ethics for his relationship with a wealthy donor was rightly seen by Democrats as selfish.
The headline on the Newark Star-Ledger’s endorsement of the incumbent today pretty much says it all: “Choke it down, and vote for Menendez.”
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee...
In addition to disaffected Democrats, New Jersey also has lots of suburban Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. These are the voters that Republicans have been the most concerned about in the era of Trump, particularly those with college degrees and household incomes above $100,000.
In polls taken before the terrorist attack on a Pittsburgh synagogue and the ersatz mail bombs sent to leading Democrats, there were indications nationally that these traditional Republican constituencies were coming home for the GOP. Some combination of the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation and generally higher satisfaction with the president’s job performance showed signs that it might save lots of seats.
If most of that party unity survives the current struggle between the president, the press and Democrats over who is most to blame for the rotten state of political discourse and Democrats really do shun Menendez, it might just happen for Hugin.
If Republicans are going to have a really good night a week from Tuesday, it will substantially start in the suburban precincts of New Jersey. If it’s even close there, the GOP can feel very confident about what’s to follow – some very big bricks in the red wall.
Now, Texas. Cruz is not as unpopular as Menendez, but he has plenty of detractors among the state’s Republicans. Whether its lingering resentment from Cruz’s bad bromance with Donald Trump or just that he spent much of his first term running for president, he pales in popularity to other statewide-elected Republicans, particularly the very popular Gov. Greg Abbott.
When the conservative Dallas Morning News editorial page endorsed O’Rourke, it acknowledged its ideological disagreements with the Democrat but argued that Cruz had become such a “cutting figure” that “bold steps” were required to start to heal the national discourse. 
Texas also has lots of those same kind of upscale suburbanite voters who also live in New Jersey. And if they decide in large numbers to punish the GOP for the excesses of the president, O’Rourke could be in the game.
But the other thing O’Rourke is counting on is that many new and low-frequency voters, including large numbers of Hispanic voters, turn out in force. Texas Democrats have been working for years to organize and mobilize younger Latino voters who skew more Democratic than older ones. And if they’ve succeeded, it’s entirely possible that existing polling models would miss the surge.  
If O’Rourke is in the running, it will be a good sign for Democrats across the West and Southwest that their day has come. If that’s what’s happening, Democrats can reasonably expect to clean up on a bunch of House seats where Republicans are counting on suburbanites to stick with them and Hispanic voters to stay home.
Like we said, both seats are probably going to stay with their current party, but both do make helpful channel markers for the direction of the election nationally. And it would behoove us to show a little less certitude. The scenarios preferred by either party are not the most likely ones, but just because something has a low probability doesn’t mean it has no probability.
The 2016 election certainly taught us that, and so do sports.
This is the part in the college football season where dreams of January glory die hard.
Beyond undefeated powerhouses University of Alabama and Clemson University, there are a dozen or so other programs that are still in the running to make the playoffs and, potentially, the national championship.
The good folks at FiveThirtyEight have a handy probability calculator to see the chances of teams to advance beyond the regular season, which wraps up at the end of next month.
Their model holds that, to pick a team absolutely at random and without any favoritism whatsoever, the West Virginia University Mountaineers have a one in five chance of winning their conference and a less than one in 10 chance of making it to the playoffs.
Now, we know this is wrong and foolish on the part of the model, which is obviously shot through with mountain bias. We know that WVU will not only flatten the University of Texas on Saturday afternoon but also hold the line against a perennially overrated Oklahoma University squad on the day after Thanksgiving. It’s obvious.
But maybe – just maybe – it would be helpful for us to remember that these scenarios are just postulated sequences of events. And maybe – just maybe – it would be helpful for us to presume a little less. Maybe the Mounties will win out. Maybe they won’t. Further, it might even be useful to see the probabilities as an interesting way to look at the standing, but not put too much faith in them, either.
And if we can do that about college football, perhaps we could do so about something less important, like midterm elections.
THE RULEBOOK: CLOGGED AND CONVULSED, INDEED
“If a faction consists of less than a majority, relief is supplied by the republican principle, which enables the majority to defeat its sinister views by regular vote. It may clog the administration, it may convulse the society; but it will be unable to execute and mask its violence under the forms of the Constitution.” – James Madison, Federalist No. 10
TIME OUT: SHALOM ALEIKHEM
The executive editor off the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, David Shribman, lives in the same neighborhood where a terrorist attacked a synagogue on Saturday. We recommend highly Shribman’s account of the day and description of Squirrel Hill, a special place in the world. And we send up our prayers to join those of millions of our countrymen for the dead and for the living. May the peace that surpasses all understanding be upon you in this troubled time.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “Because this was our neighborhood, caught in the crossfire of the strains of the global village, and for once — sadly, so very sadly — the hurt was ours, and the victims were ours, and the need to heal is ours. For now it has happened here; for millions across this wounded nation, we are the focus of anguish and anger and solace, the it-can-happen-anywhere place of the moment. And we know, given the tempo of tragedy in these times that are ours, that the title won’t be ours for long. In our grief — shared across all faiths — we need something to lean on, to steady us. We might reflect on the passage from Proverbs that lent its name to this place of tragedy, a reference to the metaphor describing Judaism’s most sacred text, the Torah, as a tree of life, or, in transliterated Hebrew, Etz hayyim: It is a tree of life to all who hold fast to it; its ways are ways of pleasantness, and all its paths are peace.”
Flag on the play? - Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.
SCOREBOARD
Trump job performance 
Average approval: 42.2 percent
Average disapproval: 53.2 percent
Net Score: -11 points
Change from one week ago: down 3 points
[Average includes: Gallup: 40% approve - 54% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 41% approve - 53% disapprove; USA Today/Suffolk: 43% approve - 54% disapprove; NBC/WSJ: 45% approve - 52% disapprove; CBS News: 42% approve - 53% disapprove.]
Control of House
Republican average: 41.6 percent
Democratic average: 50.6 percent
Advantage: Democrats plus 9 points
Change from one week ago: Democratic advantage down 0.6 points 
[Average includes: NPR/PBS/Marist: 50% Dems - 40% GOP; USA Today/Suffolk: 51% Dems - 43% GOP; NBC/WSJ: 50% Dems - 41% GOP; Fox News: 49% Dems - 42% GOP; ABC/WaPo: 53% Dems - 42% GOP.]
TRUMP’S MIDTERM ROAD TRIP TARGETS BASE OF THE BASE
Axios: “President Trump is adding an 11th rally to his final six-day blitz leading into the Nov. 6 midterm elections. … Trump is going to Trump country within Trump states. Only two competitive House seats lie within these locations. The locations and dates we cite here, the big picture details of which were first reported by Bloomberg, are based on internal White House planning and could change: Oct. 31: Fort Myers, Florida; Nov. 1: Columbia, Missouri; Nov. 2: Huntington, West Virginia and an undisclosed location in Indiana; Nov. 3: Bozeman, Montana and an undisclosed location in Florida; Nov. 4: Macon, Georgia and Chattanooga, Tennessee; Nov. 5: Fort Wayne, Indiana and Cape Girardeau, Missouri; Another rally, on a date [Axios hasn’t] established: an undisclosed location in Ohio. … Trump is ‘going to the places where he remains popular, more rural or exurban, and he's staying away from big cities that have suburbs where he's toxic,’ [Cook Political Report's elections analyst Amy Walter] said.”
White House braces for impact - Bloomberg: “White House officials are largely resigned to losing Republican control of the U.S. House and are bracing for an exodus of staff worried about a torrent of subpoenas from Democratic congressional investigators. President Donald Trump’s team still sees a possible path to victory. But talk of a ‘red wave’ has ceased, advisers inside and outside the White House said. Trump last uttered the boast in public in August. The mood around the president has darkened as many challengers continue to out-raise seasoned Republican incumbents and Democratic enthusiasm surpasses that of the GOP. Bill Stepien, the White House director of political affairs, is already laying the groundwork to shift blame away from Trump should the party lose the House. He argued in an internal memo obtained by Bloomberg that the GOP has been hindered by historical headwinds, a wave of incumbent retirements, and strong fundraising by Democratic challengers.”
LATE DEM DOLLARS MAY MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
NYT: “As the 2018 midterm campaign enters its final full week, House Republicans are rushing to fortify their defenses in conservative-leaning districts they thought were secure, pouring millions of dollars into a last-minute bid to build a new firewall against Democrats. …Republican officials are increasingly concerned about Democratic incursions in some of the remaining 30 competitive districts on the House map where the Republican candidates thought they had an edge. For the final two weeks of the election, Democratic campaigns and outside groups are on track to substantially outspend Republicans, strategists on both sides say. Democrats are set to spend $143 million on television advertising in House races, compared with $86 million for Republicans, according to one analysis by a Democratic strategist tracking media buys. Democratic super PACs and other outside groups are poised to outspend their Republican counterparts by a wide margin, erasing an advantage Republicans planned on having.”
How Sessions plans to survive midterms - National Journal: “Rep. Pete Sessions is running for reelection against a former NFL linebacker. But only one of them brags about winning a Heisman Trophy—and it’s not the onetime football player. That "Heisman" is what Sessions calls his Spirit of Enterprise Award from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. … That’s the Sessions playbook: Convince midterm swing voters to prioritize a longstanding allegiance to the Chamber-style fiscal conservatism embodied by George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan over their uneasiness with the demeanor of the party's current standard-bearer. … Incumbents such as Sessions in traditionally Republican-leaning seats in affluent suburbs are in grave political peril, in no small part because of Trump’s low approval ratings. … But Sessions is banking that a pure economic argument against big government will win over educated voters in a state as fiercely independent as Texas and with an economy as robust and booming as that of northern Dallas.”
Will Iowa voters care about Steve King’s ties to white nationalists? - WaPo: “[After] Eleven Jews had been massacred in Pittsburgh, gunned down at their synagogue. … No one questioned whether their well-liked representative, Steve King — the U.S. congressman most openly affiliated with white nationalism — might be contributing to anti-Semitism or racism through his unapologetic embrace of white nationalist rhetoric and his praise of far-right politicians and groups in other nations. … The belief … expressed Saturday in Remsen, in the wake of the deadliest attack on American Jews in history, is prevalent across Iowa’s 4th District, where King is seeking a ninth term in Congress. In his 16 years in the House, King has become better known for making incendiary remarks about immigration and race than for passing a bill. … In an interview after Saturday’s shooting in Pittsburgh, King said he was not anti-Semitic, touting his strong support for Israel and insisting there’s ‘a special place in hell’ for anyone who perpetrates religious or race-based violence.”
SENATE DEMS FOCUS ON HEALTH CARE TO RALLY VOTERS
NYT: “After years of running as far as they could from President Barack Obama’s health care law, Ms. [Claire McCaskill] and vulnerable Senate Democrats in Florida, West Virginia and other political battlegrounds have increasingly focused their closing argument on a single issue: saving the Affordable Care Act. … It is unknown whether Democrats’ health care message will hold up as Mr. Trump, through almost daily rallies and frequent Twitter blasts, tries to dominate television news and social media in the campaign’s final days. He has said the midterms would be about ‘Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order, and common sense.’ But after years of trying and failing to rally voters behind the complicated features of Mr. Obama’s health care law, Democrats have discovered this year the emotional power of one of its benefits, protecting people with pre-existing illnesses. The subject has lit up polls, monopolized advertising budgets and driven a national strategy for Democrats, who are defending 10 Senate seats in states Mr. Trump won and are relying heavily on health care as a defining issue in key states including Arizona, Florida, West Virginia and Nevada.”
John James cuts Michigan Sen. Stabenow’s lead in half - Fox News: “Underdog Republican Senate candidate John James appears to be gaining momentum in Michigan, as the latest polls show the political newcomer cutting incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s once-comfortable lead in half. James, an Iraq War veteran, is now trailing the incumbent by roughly 7 points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls. The split is similar to the race in Texas, where Democrat Beto O’Rourke is trailing incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Like O’Rourke, James remains the underdog. But unlike in Texas, the polls in Michigan reflect a steady tightening. Stabenow, D-Mich., for months had led by double digits. As of mid-October, Stabenow was 16 points ahead of James, according to an MRG poll. But an EPIC-MRA poll from late October showed Stabenow with just a 7-point lead, an Emerson poll showed her up 9 points and a new Mitchell Research & Communications poll showed the incumbent leading by 6 points.”
McSally supporters try capitalizing off Sinema’s ‘crazy’ remark - Fox News: “There was a new addition to a weekend rally for the Arizona Senate campaign of Republican Rep. Martha McSally: signs that read ‘AZ isn’t crazy, voting Democrat is!’ Supporters excitedly waved the signs during remarks Friday by McSally and Vice President [Mike]Pence. The signs referred to recently surfaced comments made by Democratic Candidate Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. ‘People have watched what was happening in Arizona, and been like, ‘Damn, those people are crazy,’ Sinema said in a video recorded in 2011 and posted this month by The Reagan Battalion, which describes itself as a source of conservative information. Sinema also has also been scrutinized for expressing indifference in a 2003 clip, when a radio host asserted that joining the Taliban is a ‘personal decision.’ ... Asked for a response to McSally’s charges, a spokeswoman for the Sinema campaign directed Fox News to tweets posted Saturday about the defining issue of their campaign – health care.”
SEX DISCRIMINATION SETTLEMENT ROILS MAINE RACE
NYT: “Shawn Moody has made his difficult upbringing and success in business the twin pillars of his campaign to become Maine’s next governor… But for Jill Hayward, herself a single mother, there is nothing quite as painful as seeing Mr. Moody appear on television… In 2006, Ms. Hayward, a former member of management at a Moody’s store, filed a sexual discrimination complaint against Mr. Moody with the Maine Human Rights Commission, accusing him of firing her because he did not think she was up to the job after giving birth to her son. … Mr. Moody has made his reputation and character a part of the campaign because of how much he leans on his biography in his race against Janet Mills, the Democratic state attorney general. Opinion polls show a tight contest to succeed the pugnacious term-limited governor, Paul R. LePage, whose lieutenants are guiding Mr. Moody’s campaign.”
Jimmy Carter urges Kemp to step aside as secretary of state - AP: “Former President Jimmy Carter is wading into the contentious Georgia governor’s race with a personal appeal to Republican candidate Brian Kemp: Resign as secretary of state to avoid damaging public confidence in the outcome of his hotly contested matchup with Democrat Stacey Abrams. The 94-year-old Carter’s request, made in an Oct. 22 letter obtained by The Associated Press, is the latest turn in a campaign whose closing month is being defined by charges of attempted voter suppression and countercharges of attempted voter fraud. Kemp has thus far dismissed Democratic demands that he step aside as Georgia’s chief elections officer. But Carter attempted to approach the matter less as a partisan who has endorsed Abrams and more as the former president who’s spent the decades since he left the Oval Office monitoring elections around the world.”
POLL CHECK
Senate
Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren* (D) 56% vs. Geoff Diehl (R) 34% - Boston Globe/Suffolk
Texas: Ted Cruz* (R) 51% vs. Beto O'Rourke (D) 46% - Quinnipiac University
House
CA-25: Stephen Knight* (R) 48% vs. Katie Hill (D) 44% - NYT
KS-02: Steve Watkins (R) 36% vs. Paul Davis (D) 39% - NYT
NC-09: Mark Harris (R) 45% vs. Dan McCready (D) 44% - NYT
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick* (R) 47% vs. Scott Wallace (D) 46% - NYT
VA-07: David Brat* (R) 45% vs. Abigail Spanberger (D) 46% - Christopher Newport University
Governor
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker* (R) 65% vs. Jay Gonzalez (D) 26% - Boston Globe/Suffolk
New Mexico: Steve Pearce (R) 44% vs. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 53% - Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)* 54% vs. Lupe Valdez (D) 40% - Quinnipiac University 
*Indicates incumbent 
PLAY-BY-PLAY
Jobs and earnings dominate the week ahead - Fox Business
President and first lady to visit Pittsburgh on Tuesday - USA Today
AUDIBLE: COME TOGETHER 
“I condemn this shooting in Volusia County in the strongest possible terms, & urge anyone with information to share it with the authorities. I want supporters on all sides of this election to stay safe.” – Tweet from Florida Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum in response to news that someone had vandalized a country Republican campaign office over the weekend.
FROM THE BLEACHERS
“Bravo! Thank you for making it so simple. I am saving and sending [Friday’s note] to my grandchildren … to save and give to us something to contemplate whenever reach the point in our existence where we need to stop and think before we continue down a path of destruction that not only impacts our little life, but that of all humanity. We all need to ponder the words written so eloquently about the current state of our country perpetrated by all involved over such petty differences that we have to resort to such deviant behavior in the name of ‘the cause.’ Seldom is it offered to us the truth in such a clear voice.” – Tom Kyte, Seymour, Tenn.
[Ed. note: Thank you, Mr. Kyte! There’s high praise and then there’s grandpa-sends-it-in-the-mail high praise! I try to keep this note about politics and voters as much as possible. Others are better suited and situated than I am to write about our culture, especially when we’re so busy keeping up with the cascade of information about an election that’s now very nearly upon us. What I didn’t know when writing about our rotten politics on Friday was that the next morning would bring a new and even more devastating reminder that evil is real and will not be ignored. After a wonderful day with my sons out in the country, I belatedly got the news about what had happened at the Tree of Life Synagogue. I confess that tears flowed from my eyes as I sat alone in my parked car and read the accounts. Make no mistake: The terrorist’s actions were not the fault of any other person, but rather his alone. He pulled the trigger. He lost his way in the darkness. But if we understand that such men will always be tempted by the lure of that same darkness, are we not all obliged to bring light? Perhaps some of our brothers and sisters will be saved, and at the very least, we can bring support and comfort in a world where, no matter what, man will always inflict suffering on his fellow man? We will not long persist as a free people if we are not a virtuous people. It is up to each of us to work that out as best we can. But how long must we wait before Americans in one clear, strong voice demand leaders who reject division, dishonesty and cynicism? My heart is still broken over what I saw and read on Saturday and I pledged myself again to speak the truth in a spirit of love, to choose kindness over cruelty and choose hope over cynicism. I said that with the same words I offered at my own confirmation and at the baptisms of my sons: “With God’s help, I will.”]
Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.
WAIT. WHO’S KISSING THEIR CHICKENS?
KUTV: “Despite some news reports, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention doesn't warn people against dressing up chickens for Halloween. The CDC stated … that despite news reports saying otherwise, people can dress up chickens in Halloween costumes. However, the public health institute does advise chicken owners to handle them carefully to keep their families and chickens safe and healthy. If you're handling any chickens during the spooky holiday, here are some tips: … Keep your chickens outside and never let them inside your home. Don't eat or drink in areas where the chickens live or roam. Don’t kiss or snuggle with your birds, and don't touch your face immediately afterward. Children under 5 years old should not be in contact with chickens - young children are more likely to get sick because of their developing immune systems, and more likely to put their fingers or pacifiers and other items in their mouths.”
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“The cliché is that if you’ve infuriated both sides, it means you must be doing something right. Sometimes, however, it means you must be doing everything wrong.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on May 11, 2017. 

Trump: Caravan migrants are 'wasting their time'

President Trump calls Florida's Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum a 'stone-cold thief,' praises Republican senatorial candidate John James, and tells members of the migrant caravan heading toward the U.S. that they are 'wasting their time.'

President Trump told Fox News on Monday evening that Central American migrants who are approaching the U.S.-Mexico border in caravans are "wasting their time" and vowed, "they are not coming in."
Trump spoke to "The Ingraham Angle" hours after the Pentagon announced it would deploy some 5,200 troops to the southern border in what the commander of U.S. Northern Command described as an effort to "harden the southern border" by stiffening defenses at and near legal entry points.
"When they are captured, we don't let them out," Trump told host Laura Ingraham. "We're not letting them out ... We're not catching, we're not releasing ... We're not letting them into this country."
Trump also said the administration would build "tent cities" to house any asylum-seekers who have joined the caravan.
"We're going to put tents up all over the place," the president said. "We're not going to build structures and spend ... hundreds of millions of dollars. We're going to have tents, they're going to be very nice and they're going to wait and if they don't get asylum, they get out."
The president repeatedly has raised the alarm about the first migrant caravan approaching the U.S., which contains an estimated 4,000 people. A second caravan, with an estimated 600 migrants, has been picking up steam and marked by violence. About 600 migrants in the second group tried to cross a bridge from Guatemala to Mexico en masse Monday. The riverbank standoff with Mexico police followed a more violent confrontation Sunday when the migrants used sticks and rocks against officers. One migrant was killed Sunday night by a head wound, but the cause was unclear.
TRUMP EMBRACES 'NATIONALIST' LABEL, REJECTS BLAME OVER HATE-FILLED ATTACKS
"Many Gang Members and some very bad people are mixed into the Caravan heading to our Southern Border," Trump tweeted Monday morning. "Please go back, you will not be admitted into the United States unless you go through the legal process. This is an invasion of our Country and our Military is waiting for you!"
The forces headed to the U.S.-Mexico border are support troops – not combat troops – and will include three engineering battalions with "heavy equipment", as well as aviation and medical personnel. Most of the troops are on active duty and will carry weapons, but will not be part of any law enforcement effort in deference to the Posse Comitatus Act, which prohibits the federal government from using the armed forces in a domestic police role.
THOUSANDS OF U.S. TROOPS DEPLOYING TO SOUTHERN BORDER
The White House is also weighing additional border security measures, including blocking those traveling in the caravan from seeking legal asylum and preventing them from entering the United States.

Halloween Democrat Cartoons

Lindsey Graham sees cheers, protesters at Blackburn rally in Tennessee

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Sen. Lindsey Graham got a warm welcome at a rally for the Senate campaign of Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., by hundreds of Republicans excited to greet the lawmaker who helped get Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court.
But just like the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, Sunday’s program repeatedly was disrupted by protesters, including one who shouted during a moment of silence for victims of Saturday’s shooting at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, and others who needed to be physically restrained and removed by police officers.
“Judge me by my friends and the people that want to yell at me,” Graham, R-S.C., told Fox News in an interview.  “The only people wanting to yell at me would turn the country into a mob.”
The chaos at the Blackburn rally might not stay a standalone incident.
“It’s getting worse, because emotions are running high,” Graham said.
Blackburn and her Democratic opponent, businessman Phil Bredesen, both released statements condemning the interruptions.
Graham may have been Kavanaugh’s most outspoken defender when the focus of his confirmation hearing shifted to accusations of sexual misconduct.
CLICK FOR COMPLETE FOX NEWS MIDTERMS COVERAGE
“God, y’all want power, and I hope you never get it,” Graham told Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee, with a raised voice, during a hearing in September.
Ever since, he’s been one of the most sought-after surrogates for Republican candidates across the country hoping to rekindle strong feelings about the supercharged confirmation process.
“The reason all these people showed up for me – I was defending Kavanaugh, and they thought he got a raw deal,” Graham said. “And I said things on their behalf. If they could have been in my chair, they would have said the same thing too.”
For the first time in his career, Graham is also campaigning against some fellow senators, including Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and Joe Donnelly, D-Ind.
MCSALLY SUPPORTERS IN ARIZONA TRY CAPITALIZING OFF SINEMA'S 'CRAZY' REMARK
“I’ve done things since Kavanaugh I’ve never done before, and my whole point of doing this is – it’s got to stop,” Graham said. “The only way it will stop is if people lose their job.”
Depending on how the midterms shake out, Graham knows there could be some hard feelings back on Capitol Hill.
“It’s going to be awkward, but I can hold my head up high,” Graham said. “I can look them in the eye and say – when it was my turn, I did not do this, and you empowered it.”

President Trump marks Halloween at the White House

President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump greeting a baby in a superhero costume as they hand out candy to children during a Halloween trick-or-treat event at the White House. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump are marking Halloween at the White House by handing out candy to kids at a festive event on the South Lawn.
The couple appeared Sunday at the Halloween event, passing out White House Hershey bars and Twizzlers to children dressed as superheroes, astronauts and princesses. The South Portico was decorated with pumpkins, hay bales and cornstalks, as a military band played spooky music.

 Two girls posing for a photograph with the decorated South Portico of the White House on Sunday. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Trump and the first lady were not dressed up, but smiled, chatted and posed for photos with the kids as they distributed treats from wicker baskets.

Parents taking photographs of their children in Halloween costumes, as mist from a fog machine rose around them, during a trick-or-treat event with President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump at the White House. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

'HALLOWEEN' HELPS BREAK OCTOBER BOX OFFICE RECORD
The White House said the event was attended by military families and local children.

A space suit from NASA on display among the decorations on the South Portico of the White House decorated for Halloween. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Hillary Clinton says, 'I'd like to be president,' at NYC event

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton poses backstage with moderator Kara Swisher before their conversation at the 92nd Street Y. (Evan Agostini/Invision/AP)

Hillary Clinton during an event Friday at the New York City's 92nd Street Y told the audience: “I’d like to be president.”
The comments come amid speculation whether the former Democratic presidential nominee would run again in the 2020 election. Clinton said she did not want to run again, but would not definitively rule it out either.
She said her eight years in the Senate and term as secretary of state under former President Barack Obama qualified her for the job.
But she insisted she would not consider a run until after the November midterm.
IS HILLARY CLINTON SECRETLY PLANNING TO RUN IN 2020?
Supporters and opponents alike have noted an increase in Clinton’s public appearances in recent months, as an outspoken critic of President Donald Trump.
Five times in June Clinton sent emails touting her super PAC’s role in combating the president.
And earlier this month, longtime Clinton adviser Philippe Reines told Fox News’ Martha MacCallum there was a slight chance the former secretary of state would win.
“I’m not saying she’s going to run,” Reines said. “I think the odds are probably in the Powerball range.”
Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will kick off a 13-city tour after the midterm in which they will discuss current affairs and politics, The Hill reported.

San Francisco spends about $6,326 for each non-citizen voter to sign up for local election, report says

San Francisco reportedly spent $310,000 on a new registration system aimed at getting non-citizens to cast votes in school board elections.
The program resulted in 49 new voters, which turned out to cost the city $6,326 each, The San Francisco Chronicle reported. The paper called the effort “pretty much a bust the first time out.”
Local officials suggest residents who might otherwise consider registering are worried the Trump administration would learn their identities.
The voters are only able to vote in a school board race. John Arntz, the city elections chief,  In San Francisco, noncitizens who opt to vote will be listed on a separate roster from citizens and will get a ballot with just the school board contest, city elections chief John Arntz said.
Robin Hvidston, the executive director of We the People Rising, group that calls for tougher immigration enforcement, told The Los Angeles Times that the program could ultimately backfire with those who take a moderate stance on immigration.
San Francisco is not the first place with such a measure. In Maryland, where an estimated 15 percent of residents are foreign-born, at least six cities allow noncitizens to vote in local elections.
In Massachusetts, the cities of Amherst, Cambridge, Newton and Brookline have advanced laws to allow noncitizen voting, but they cannot implement them because they need the approval of state lawmakers, who have not acted, said Ron Hayduk, an associate professor of political science at San Francisco State University who studies noncitizen voting laws.
The Times said the San Francisco Unified School District does not have exact numbers on how many students in its system are noncitizens. The report, citing the district’s website, said 29 percent of its 54,063 students are English-language learners.
Shamann Walton, a district commissioner in the city’s schools, told the paper that he wants families with children in these schools to have a voice.
“Trump will not always be president,” he told The Times. “Hopefully we’ll have leaders who are inclusive and really believe that if you are a resident of this country, you should have the same rights as other people. I’m looking forward to a time when our families will have a bigger voice.”