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Do California power shutoffs work? Hard to know, experts say

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Millions of Californians spent part of the week in the dark in an unprecedented effort by the state’s large electrical utilities to prevent another devastating wildfire. It was the fifth time Pacific Gas & Electric Co. has pre-emptively cut the power but by far the largest to date in the utility’s effort to prevent a deadly wildfire sparked by its power lines.

But do the power shut-offs actually prevent fires?

Experts say it’s hard to know what might have happened had the power stayed on, or if the utility’s proactive shutoffs are to thank for California’s mild fire season this year.

“It’s like trying to prove a negative,” said Alan Scheller-Wolf, professor of operations management and an energy expert at Carnegie Mellon’s Tepper School of Business. “They can’t prove they prevented a disaster because there’s no alternative universe where they didn’t try this.”

The winds that prompted the mass outage that affected nearly 2 million people in northern and central parts of the state shifted southward by Friday, where a wind-fueled wildfire prompted officials to order the evacuation of 100,000 people from their homes in foothills of the San Fernando Valley.

California is experiencing the first major fire activity of the season after two years that brought some of the most devastating fires on record, many of them caused by utility equipment. Until Monday, fires had covered only about 5% of the acreage burned by that date last year, and only about 13% of the average for the last five years.

But it’s too early — and maybe impossible — to tell if that can be attributed to increased measures to cut power.

“We have good reason to be skeptical, and the reason is that PG&E bears the costs of starting a fire, but they don’t bear the costs of shutting off power,” said Severin Borenstein, faculty director of the Energy Institute at University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business.

He noted that weather forecasting is notoriously difficult, “so even if PG&E were doing the best possible job, it would not get it right sometimes.”

PG&E said in a statement that employees located 23 spots where parts of its systems were damaged during the strong winds, but officials have declined to provide details, saying it will be included in a state-mandated report.

Gov. Gavin Newsom blasted PG&E for what he called decades of mismanagement, underinvestment and lousy communication with the public. He pointed to San Diego Gas & Electric, which pioneered proactive power shutoffs following a devastating 2007 fire sparked by its equipment, as a model for responsibly shutting off power in bad weather.

“Specifically as it relates to their predictive analysis, their weather station, I had a chance to visit it a few months ago,” Newsom said. “It’s exceptional, it’s at another level.”

SDG&E, which serves 3.6 million people, has spent about $1.5 billion to better predict bad weather and update its equipment, said Chief Operating Officer Caroline Winn. The company hired meteorologists, data scientists and fire experts and deployed an extensive array of weather monitors, she said. It replaced about 18,000 wooden poles with steel, installed new conductors and increased the wind tolerance in remote areas, using data from weather sensors to know which equipment was most at risk. The company also sectionalized electrical circuits so power managers could target outages more precisely to the lines facing danger.

“We didn’t have all the answers then, but what we did know as we had to change and we had to do things differently,” Winn said.

A decade of data and the refined grid have helped SDG&E to narrowly target outages when they’re necessary, she said. Of its 14 outages since 2013, only two affected more than 20,000 customers and most have been significantly fewer.

Outside California, other large western utilities in Nevada and Utah said they, too, are considering proactively shutting off power to avoid sparking fires.

“We want to make sure our system isn’t the cause of one of these devastating fires,” said Tiffany Erickson, a spokeswoman for Rocky Mountain Power in Utah, which has notified 5,000 households and businesses that shutoffs are possible during dangerous weather.

Last month, Southern California Edison shut off electricity to 14,000 customers in the remote Mammoth Lakes area along the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada because of forecasts of extreme winds and extremely dry vegetation.

Winds reached 88 mph (141 kph) and the California Highway Patrol banned trucks and campers from traveling along a highway after gusts blew over big-rig trucks, the utility said. The winds knocked down power poles and damaged electric circuits.

“It’s abundantly clear that the conditions that were in place up there were so severe that they could likely have caused a spark to occur,” said Don Daigler, a company spokesman. “We’re not going to do this willy-nilly.”

Stephen Pyne, a retired Arizona State University professor and fire historian, likened the power line problem to challenges posed by railroads until the early 1900s, when steam engines and train wheels regularly threw sparks that ignited deadly fires.

“Think about the railroads then,” Pyne said. “They were enormously powerful — economically, politically, socially. And we took it on. Railroads ceased to be a source of regular or lethal emissions (of sparks.)”

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Cooper reported from Phoenix. Associated Press writers Olga R. Rodriguez in San Francisco; Keith Ridler in Boise, Idaho; Brady McCombs in Salt Lake City and Brian Melley in Los Angeles contributed to this story.

Ambassador expected to testify key assurance was from Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — A U.S. ambassador is expected to tell Congress that his text message reassuring another envoy that there was no quid pro quo in their interactions with Ukraine was based solely on what President Donald Trump told him, according to a person familiar with his coming testimony in the impeachment probe.

Gordon Sondland, Trump’s hand-picked ambassador to the European Union, is among administration officials being subpoenaed to appear on Capitol Hill this week against the wishes of the White House. It’s the latest test between the legislative and executive branches of government, as the impeachment inquiry by House Democrats deepens.

On Monday, the House panels leading the investigation expect to hear from Fiona Hill, a former top National Security Council expert on Russia.

Sondland’s appearance, set for Thursday, comes after a cache of text messages from top envoys provided a vivid account of their work acting as intermediaries around the time Trump urged Ukraine’s new president, Volodymr Zelenskiy, to start investigations into a company linked to the family of a chief Democratic presidential rival, Joe Biden.

One witness who may not be called before Congress is the still anonymous government whistleblower who touched off the impeachment inquiry. Top Democrats say testimony and evidence coming in from other witnesses, and even the president himself, are backing up the whistleblower’s account of what transpired during Trump’s July 25 phone call with Zelenskiy. Lawmakers have grown deeply concerned about protecting the person from Trump’s threats over the matter and may not wish to risk exposing the whistleblower’s identity.

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said Sunday, “We don’t need the whistleblower, who wasn’t on the call, to tell us what took place during the call. We have the best evidence of that.”

Schiff said it “may not be necessary” to reveal the whistleblower’s identity as the House gathers evidence. “Our primary interest right now is making sure that that person is protected,” he said.

The impeachment inquiry is testing the Constitution’s system of checks and balances as the House presses forward with the probe and the White House dismisses it as “illegitimate” without a formal vote of the House to open impeachment proceedings.

In calling for a vote, the White House is trying to press House Democrats who may be politically reluctant to put their names formally behind impeachment. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has resisted those efforts and is unlikely to budge as Congress returns. Democrats say Congress is well within its power as the legislative branch to conduct oversight of the president and it is Republicans, having grown weary of Trump’s actions, who may be in the greater political bind over a vote.

Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., said Sunday he’d be fine with taking a formal vote, “but it’s not required.”

“Look, my own opinion is that we ought to just take this off the table because it’s such a non-issue, and there’s no doubt in my mind that of course if Nancy Pelosi does that she will have the votes and that will pass,” Himes said.

Sondland’s appearance comes after text messages from top ambassadors described their interactions leading up to Trump’s call and the aftermath.

Sondland is set to tell lawmakers that he did understand the administration was offering Zelenskiy a White House visit in exchange for a public statement committing to investigations Trump wanted, according to the person, who demanded anonymity to discuss remarks not yet given.

But Sondland will say he did not know the company being talked about for an investigation, Burisma, was tied to Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, the person said. Sondland understood the discussions about combating corruption to be part of a much broader and publicized Trump administration push that was widely shared, the person said.

In the text exchange, the diplomats raised alarm that Trump appeared to up the ante, withholding military aid to Ukraine over the investigation.

One seasoned diplomat on the text message, William Taylor, called it “crazy to withhold security assistance” to Ukraine in exchange for “help with a political campaign.”

Sondland responds that the assertion is “incorrect” about Trump’s intentions. “The President has been crystal clear no quid pro quo’s of any kind,” he said in the text message.

The person familiar with Sondland’s testimony said that before Sondland sent that text, he spoke to Trump, who told him there was no quid pro quo. Sondland then repeated that message to Taylor.

Schiff appeared on “Face the Nation” on CBS and Himes spoke on ABC’s “This Week.”

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Tucker reported from Providence, Rhode Island.

Syrian army moves to confront Turkish forces as US withdraws

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Syria’s army deployed near the Turkish border on Monday, hours after Syrian Kurdish forces previously allied with the U.S. said they had reached a deal with Damascus to help them fend off Turkey’s invasion.

The announcement of a deal between Syria’s Kurds and its government is a major shift in alliances that came after President Donald Trump ordered all U.S. troops withdrawn from the northern border area amid the rapidly deepening chaos.

The shift sets up a potential clash between Turkey and Syria and raises the specter of a resurgent Islamic State group as the U.S. relinquishes any remaining influence in northern Syria to President Bashar Assad and his chief backer, Russia.

On Monday morning, Syria’s state news agency said that the army had moved into the town of Tal Tamr, which is about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the Turkish border.

SANA said government forces would “confront the Turkish aggression,” without giving further details. Photos posted by SANA showed several vehicles and a small number of troops.

Tal Tamr is a predominantly Assyrian Christian town that was once held by IS before it was retaken by Kurdish-led forces. Many Syrian Christians, who make up about 10 percent of Syria’s pre-war population of 23 million, left for Europe over the past 20 years, with the flight gathering speed since the country’s conflict began in March 2011.

SANA did not say from which area the Syrian army had moved into the town.

Despite widespread criticism from its NATO allies in Europe and the U.S., Turkey has pressed on with its offensive into northern Syria.

Turkish forces appeared set to launch an operation on the town of Manbij farther west on Monday, according to CNN-Turk, which said the forces had reached the city’s edge.

Trump sees ‘consensus’ on imposing new sanctions on Turkey

President Trump on Sunday said there is widespread support in Washington to impose new sanctions against Turkey over its swift incursion into northern Syria.
Specific details about the sanctions were unclear but Trump said on Twitter, "Treasury is ready to go, additional legislation may be sought. There is great consensus on this. Turkey has asked that it not be done. Stay tuned!"
Reuters, citing an unnamed U.S. official, reported that the measures were being “worked out at all levels of the government for rollout.”
Last week, Trump vowed to obliterate Ankara’s economy if Turkey did anything in Syria that he considered "off limits."
Over the past five days, Turkish troops and their allies have pushed their way into northern towns and villages, clashing with the Kurdish fighters over a stretch of 125 miles. The offensive has displaced at least 130,000 people.
On Sunday, at least nine people, including five civilians, were killed in Turkish airstrikes on a convoy in the Syrian border town of Ras al-Ayn, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and Syrian Kurdish officials.
The New York Times reported that the troop advancement was so fast, they seized a road that complicated the U.S. troop pullout.
Trump has faced criticism over his decision to give Turkey a green light for the offensive. Critics said the U.S. abandoned its Kurdish allies that were credited for their actions to defeat ISIS. Trump has insisted that he wants to pull U.S. troops  out of endless wars.
Trump was criticized by Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., for his initial decision, but was praised Sunday night for working with Congress “to impose crippling sanctions against Turkeys (sic) outrageous aggression/war crimes in Syria.”
The  Associated Press contributed to this report

John Bel Edwards Cartoons

Canada’s Justin Trudeau wears bulletproof vest after security threat: reports

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wore a bulletproof vest onstage Saturday night as he delivered a speech amid heavy security after authorities learned of a security threat, according to reports.
Trudeau, leader of the nation’s Liberal Party, is seeking reelection Oct. 21. He addressed an audience of about 2,000 supporters in Mississauga, Ontario, just outside Toronto, the CBC reported.
Liberal officials would not disclose the nature of the security threat, but the event was delayed for about 90 minutes, according to the Toronto Star. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police also would not comment.
The prime minister’s wife, Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, did not introduce him to the audience, as was originally planned, the CBC reported.
When he finished speaking, Trudeau mingled with some members of the crowd before leaving.
No unusual incidents occurred during Trudeau’s appearance, according to the CBC.
Trudeau’s security detail was more numerous than usual, the CBC reported. Two weeks ago, a protester at a climate change event in Montreal was arrested after approaching Trudeau.
Leaders of the rival Conservative Party and New Democratic Party expressed concern for Trudeau’s safety.
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer wrote on Twitter:

Very upsetting to hear that Justin Trudeau had to wear a bulletproof vest tonight at a campaign event. Threats of violence against political leaders have absolutely no place in our democracy. Thank you to the RCMP for taking these threats seriously and keeping us safe,” he wrote.
New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh posted the following:
“Any threat made against @JustinTrudeau, or any leader, is troubling to all of us,” he wrote. “No matter how you vote or believe, no one should face threats of violence. To the officers who protect all of us – thank you.”
On Wednesday, Trudeau had an awkward exchange with some schoolchildren, who asked him about a past incident in which he darkened his skin as part of a party costume.
"Why did you paint your face brown?" a girl asked.
"Ooh, it was something I shouldn't have done because it hurt people," he said. "It's not something that you should do and that is something that I learned. I didn't know it back then but I know it now -- and I'm sorry I hurt people."
Trudeau apologized last month for wearing brownface makeup to an "Arabian Nights" party at the private school where he was teaching in 2001, saying, "I should have known better."
Fox News' Sam Dorman contributed to this report.

California ban on new fur products is first in US

It's to late for California.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill into law Saturday, making the state the first to ban the sale of new fur products.
Los Angeles and San Francisco have already put fur bans in place and last month the governor signed a law banning commercial fur trapping.
Newsom also signed another bill Saturday, banning most animals in circuses. Hawaii and New Jersey have similar bans.
The new bans join other recent California actions against for-profit prisons and immigrant detention centers and small-sized hotel shampoo bottles.
The new fur law, which takes effect in 2023, was lauded by animal rights activists despite fervent opposition from the billion-dollar U.S. fur industry and threats of a lawsuit from the Fur Information Council of America.
"California is a leader when it comes to animal welfare, and today that leadership includes banning the sale of fur," Newsom said in a statement. "But we are doing more than that. We are making a statement to the world that beautiful wild animals like bears and tigers have no place on trapeze wires or jumping through flames."
A spokesperson for the Fur Information Council said in a statement the new law is part of a "radical vegan agenda using fur as the first step to other bans on what we wear and eat.”
Couture designers like Versace, Gucci and Giorgio Armani have either stopped using fur or pledged to in their collections and designers like Stella McCartney use no animal products in their designs.
"The signing of AB 44 underscores the point that today's consumers simply don't want wild animals to suffer extreme pain and fear for the sake of fashion," Kitty Block, CEO and president of the Humane Society, said.
The ban excludes used fur, fur used for religious or tribal purposes, as well as leather, dog and cat fur, cowhides, deer, sheep and goatskin and taxidermy.