KALAMAZOO,
Mich. (AP) — For more than 30 years and under five presidents,
Republican Rep. Fred Upton easily won reelection to his southwest
Michigan House seat by promoting “common-sense values” and bipartisan
accomplishments.
Republicans
and even many Democrats have appreciated his moderate views and the way
he hustled around the district on his days back home, meeting people at
schools and senior homes and doing weekly radio interviews.
But
then came the hyperpolarized politics of the Donald Trump era. Now no
one, including Upton, really knows what the future holds for him heading
into the 2020 election.
For officeholders who were proud of holding the middle ground
and working with the opposing party, big questions loom about whether
being a moderate is still a viable political position, or whether the impeachment storm
sweeping U.S. politics will force everyone to accept a new identity —
pro-Trump or anti-Trump — and await voters’ judgment on it.
What
happens to this ever-shrinking group of politicians — a dozen or so
left after a rash of retirements or midterm losses — could make a big
difference in which party emerges on top when the televised hearings
have ended and the votes are counted next November. Some of the seats
are in key swing states like Michigan, typically in suburban or
fast-growing areas like Upton’s. His largely white district stretches
from tourist destinations along Lake Michigan and across rural,
Republican communities to more diverse Kalamazoo, home to Western
Michigan University.
“There’s no joy in Mudville,” Upton said in a September statement about the inquiry.
Upton
walked a careful line in that statement and others since, calling
developments around Trump’s dealings with Ukraine disconcerting but
saying the proceedings are preventing progress on other issues. He
joined other Republicans last month in voting against holding
impeachment hearings.
Democrats
have made Upton one of their top targets for 2020 after he survived his
closest election in decades last year. He faces a state lawmaker from
Kalamazoo, the district’s Democratic base in its most populous county,
and activists from outside the state already are coming in to provide
reinforcements for local Democrats. Meanwhile, questions swirl about
whether Upton, 66, may just opt to retire.
His
office said he was unavailable for an Associated Press interview, but
he told a local TV station that he has never announced his intentions as
early as a year out from Election Day.
So
far this cycle, Upton has raised almost $1 million for his campaign
fund, roughly the same amount as at this same time two years ago. His
top opponent, Democratic state Rep. Jon Hoadley, has raised about
$525,000 — double the amount Upton’s 2018 opponent had raised at this
point in the last cycle.
Mark
Miller, a former chairman of the 6th Congressional District Democrats
who now serves as a local township clerk, believes Upton has been trying
carefully to avoid angering Trump supporters or the independent voters
and Democrats who helped give him double-digit victory margins over the
years.
“I don’t
know how long he can keep that high-wire act going,” Miller said,
particularly as polls show support for impeachment growing among
independents as well as Democrats.
“What
we’ve heard year after year from those voters is ‘Good old Fred. He’s a
good guy. He’s OK by me,’” Miller said, adding that a vote against
impeachment should peel off a number of those independents. “The
question is: Will it be enough?”
John
Gregory, an Air Force veteran who works in the aerospace industry, said
that for most of his career, Upton has been in touch with the district,
but that he’s seemed to shift toward the right. He said he knows others
— veterans and non-veterans — who are concerned about what they’re
hearing during impeachment proceedings and want Upton to “put his oath
of office above party politics.”
“He
was elected because I think a lot of people here feel he’s a good
moderate and represents the district, but there are a lot of questions
right now,” the 57-year-old said.
Republicans
argue Upton — described by Vice President Joe Biden last year as “one
of the finest guys” he’s worked with — has delivered for the district
and is a better fit for the area than Hoadley. The National Republican
Campaign Committee has called Hoadley an “open socialist” whose support
for the Green New Deal would hurt Michigan’s auto industry.
Trump
and Republicans hope that rather than hurt GOP candidates, the
impeachment effort will help rally the president’s base. They’re
targeting vulnerable Democrats with TV and digital ads and holding
protests outside their offices.
Democrats running in places like Upton’s district, meanwhile, are far more muted on the topic — at least for now.
If voters ask his views, Hoadley says, he tells them the inquiry is both appropriate and necessary.
But
the 36-year-old — who likes to mention he was 3 when Upton was first
elected to Congress — is more focused on introducing himself to voters
he says are “hungry for change.”
On
the campaign trail, Hoadley says he’s talking about climate change,
water quality and Upton’s role in the Trump administration’s attempt to
repeal the Affordable Care Act, the Obama-era health law.
Upton
helped write an amendment to the GOP’s repeal plan that expanded its
coverage for preexisting conditions. The measure, which drew some
bipartisan support, died in the Senate.
Upton said it was an example of how he’s stood up to Trump when he felt it necessary.
Marj
Halperin, a leader of the Chicago chapter of Indivisible, a progressive
organization, said Democrats’ efforts on the ground are focused on
issues other than impeachment.
Halperin
was among more than a dozen people who traveled to southwest Michigan
last Saturday to bolster the push in a key 2020 state. The group knocked
on more than 600 doors to identify voters, provide information about
Michigan’s new law allowing absentee voting for all registered voters,
and talk about Hoadley and Democratic statehouse candidates.
“We aren’t going to sit back and wait to see how an impeachment hearing works out,” Halperin said.
But
Upton likely won’t be able to avoid the impeachment spotlight for long.
Democrats are practically giddy about a photo of Upton with Trump that
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy tweeted last month.
In
it, McCarthy, Upton and Rep. Tom Emmer, chairman of the House
Republicans’ campaign arm, sit at a table with a beaming Trump in the
president’s Washington hotel, platters of shrimp cocktail before them.
McCarthy’s tweet read “Great night with the President. Republicans are
united!”
The photo, and the timing of it, is likely to be featured prominently in campaign ads next year.
Democrats
say it’s a reminder that Upton isn’t really the moderate he says he is.
It’s also another sign of the deep political divide, when sharing a
table with your party’s president could become an election liability.
“That picture really did say 1,000 words,” Hoadley said.
