Democrats are frantic. For decades, they have taken the black vote
for granted. Today, there are signs that empty promises and radical leftist
social policies are leaving black voters behind. Worse, polling shows
that President Trump is picking up support from black voters. Having
tarred the president as a racist and bigot, liberals cannot imagine that
even one African American could possibly choose to support him. They
are in denial, and it could cost them the 2020 election.
Democratic candidates
are promising the moon to win over black voters. Reparations, massive
support for historically black colleges, bail reform — everything is on
the table. But there are signs that the candidate racking up the most
consequential wins with minority voters is Trump.
Nothing — nothing — could be more threatening to Democratic prospects in 2020.
In
a recent interview with CNBC, BET founder and billionaire Robert
Johnson suggested that Trump’s reelection is “his to lose.” As a
prominent black businessman and faithful Democrat, Johnson’s views are
noteworthy. He cites the increase in black employment and the strong
economy as helping Trump, as well as the leftward lurch of Democrats. “I
do not see anybody in the Democratic primary race today that is enough
in the center where I believe most of the voters are, and particularly
where most African Americans are,” Johnson said.
Black
activists say Johnson’s wealth puts him out of touch with mainstream
black voters, and dismiss his concerns. But recent polling suggests
Johnson is on to something.
Two
polls, one by Emerson College and one from Rasmussen, put black support
for Trump at or above 34 percent. Those soundings so alarmed Trump
critics that a horrified CNN host described the two polls as “fake” and
sarcastically suggested that only Kanye West and other black Trump
surrogates had been surveyed.
The Emerson poll showed 34.5 percent
of black registered voters supported the president, up from 17.8
percent a month earlier. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus
8.3 points. Rasmussen showed the president with 34 percent approval
from blacks.
Most polls put the president’s approval among black
voters at about 10 percent. But it is worth noting that Trump won only 8
percent of black votes in 2016; as dismal as that showing was, it was
better than that of John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. And, as
modest as 10 percent is, it’s better than his tally in 2016.
In
2016, Trump asked black voters, “What do you have to lose?” He hit a
nerve, and while only a small fraction of that cohort pulled the lever
for Trump, turnout among blacks receded to pre-Obama levels, which could
well have cost Hillary Clinton the win.
This year, he has ramped
up his outreach to African Americans, and it may be getting some
traction. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats carried 90 percent of the vote
in House contests, obviously a huge majority, but that was shy of the
93 percent that voted for Hillary in 2016. While Democrats are scoring
better with white suburban women, they appear to be slipping among
blacks.
Meanwhile, surveys conducted by Sienna College and the New
York Times of key swing states show black voter support for Trump ahead
of 2016 levels.
Why not? Trump signed the most consequential
criminal justice reform bill in decades and is presiding over an economy
that has delivered rising incomes and jobs to even the most vulnerable
Americans, like ex-felons. The poverty rate is at the lowest level since
2001 and fell last year by 0.9 percent among blacks. Black unemployment
is at record low levels and in recent years, gains in median household
income for blacks have exceeded those of whites in most metropolitan
areas.
In October, the Trump team launched Black Voices for Trump
in Atlanta, with the president vowing to “campaign for every last
African American vote in 2020.” In that inaugural address, the president
told several hundred African American supporters, “the Democratic Party
already left you a long time ago.” He added, “If you don’t want liberal
extremists to run your lives, then today we say welcome to the
Republican Party.”
Those remarks point to a real problem for the
left: black voters tend to be more conservative than other Democrats.
While Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Pete Buttigieg are busily
rounding up progressive primary voters, they are leaving many blacks
behind. Joe Biden is leading with that group. Some of his popularity no
doubt stems from having served as vice president to President Obama, but
it is also because Biden is a more moderate candidate than many of his
rivals.
In sparring with the four progressive women of color in
the House known as the “squad,” Trump may have offended liberal
editorial writers, but it is unlikely he lost much support from black
voters in Georgia. Research cited by the Times shows that over the past
few decades, “The African American electorate has been undergoing a
quiet, long-term transformation, moving from the left toward the center
on several social and cultural issues.”
Further, WSJ/NBC polling
shows “the percentage of white voters describing themselves as very
liberal or liberal is roughly twice as large as the percentage of black
voters who do so.”
Particularly
on issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion, blacks do not line up
with the far left. For example, while only 3 percent of white Democrats
say abortion should be illegal, fully one-third of black voters say it
should not be allowed. Some say that Buttigieg, who is married to a man,
will struggle to win black support. And though blacks still embrace
progressive economic messages from the likes of Warren, they also favor a
strong economy and job creation.
That’s what Trump is delivering.
Higher wages, opportunity zones, education reform, job training; how
can Democrats compete with that? Not with a radical agenda and more
empty promises.