President Donald Trump can still win the presidency.
Here’s how:
Only the Electoral College or the various state legislatures can
declare a candidate the winner. To base this decision on network vote
totals and projections and to call Biden the president-elect is
irresponsible.
The recounts in Arizona, Georgia, and the other states are likely to go heavily for Trump.
Most of the likely errors or invalid votes took place on mailed in
ballots. (Machine votes are harder to tamper with). Since Biden won
upwards of two-thirds of mail-in votes and absentee ballots, it's likely
that most of the discarded mail ballots will be subtracted from Biden’s
total.
The networks currently give Trump 214 electorate voters (270 is the victory level).
Alaska, where Trump has led by 2:1 all week and is now more than half
counted will likely throw its 3 votes to Trump giving him 217.
Trump has likewise led in North Carolina (15 votes) all week and his
margin of 75,000 has not diminished. He will undoubtedly carry North
Carolina.
Like Alaska, the media will not call it for Trump to promote the
illusion of a Biden victory. North Carolina would bring Trump’s vote to
232.
The vote count in Arizona shows Trump’s deficit shrinking from 30,000
on Friday to 18,500 on Saturday with about 100K left to count.
After Arizona (11 votes). is fully counted, it will go through a
recount subject to the pro-Trump bias identified in point 2. Were he to
win Arizona, he would have 243 votes.
In Georgia (16 votes), Biden leads by only 8400 votes, a margin that has been dropping.
Like Arizona, Trump may still win the count and, if not, would have a
very good chance of prevailing in the recount. With Georgia, Trump
would have 259 votes.
Wisconsin (10 votes) is tallied as having been won by Biden by 21,000
votes but a recanvass is in the offing. Given the facts enumerated
earler, there is a very good chance Trump will carry Wisconsin. The
recount process in Wisconsin is uniquely fair and transparent — a model
for the nation — so Trump may well flip the state.
If he does, he will have 269 votes — one shy of victory.
Then, it comes down Pennsylvania and its 20 votes. The Supreme Court
provisionally allowed ballots to be counted if they arrived before
Friday, Nov. 6 and were postmarked before election day, Nov. 3, and
ordered late votes to be segregated. When Justice Alito was informed
that the state had not segregated the late votes, as required in the
Court’s decision, Alito reaffirmed the necessity of enforcing the court
order.
Joe Biden currently leads by 37,000 votes in Pennsylvania. The number
of late arriving ballots likely far exceeds this total (the state has
not published this information).
Justice Alioto and a Court majority may throw out the late ballots, likely delivering the state to Trump.
Additionally, for the reasons stated above, a recanvass is likely to
give Trump a decisive advantage. If he wins Pennsylvania, he would have
289 votes and a victory.
Will there be a recount in Pennsylvania? The current law requires one
if the margin is under 0;.5% and in Pennsylvania it likely will be
slightly greater.
There are two ways to trigger a recount:
—First, the U.S. Supreme Court could order one after the vote
counters so flagrantly violated Alito’s order to segregate the votes
that he had to re-issue it. And remember, four Justices wanted to
reconsider whether to allow late ballots entirely but the high court
deadlocked 4-4. Now with Justice Barrett in the mix it may take a
different view, particularly iff the presidency hangs in the balance.
—Second, Article II Section 1 of the US Constitution reads:
"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof
may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators
and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress."
The Pennsylvania State Legislature, solidly in Republican hands (both
houses) may choose to demand a recount before appointing electors. To
build the case for doing so, it may hold hearings into the allegations
of fraud so as to help the voters of the state understand how flagrantly
their votes were mishandled.
Already, the leader of the State Senate in Pennsylvania and the
Speaker of the State Assembly have held a press conference announcing
their intention to "audit" the vote counting process.
So, as the great Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings."
She hasn’t.
