Joe Biden thinks this race is a toss-up. That’s his
line when ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos interviewed him, and it only
exacerbated the ongoing issues with the president, his messaging, and
his overall re-election effort. It’s simply false, much like the lie
that got blown up recently about his trip to the neurologist—a narrative
that has gone through more surgeries than a transgender person. Yet,
it’s the president’s deep denial that anything is wrong and that his
June 27 debate with Donald Trump, universally seen as a disaster, would
pass.
It hasn’t. Biden admits he was terrible but didn’t lose because Trump
didn’t gain ground. Yes and no on that front—by losing supporters, Joe,
that’s Trump’s gain. And the national polls aren’t the best gauge
either. I understand this camp uses it because it’s the only good news
this campaign can ship off to donors. Even in those polls, Biden is
trailing Trump. Biden was already losing to the former president
pre-debate in the battleground states. It’s even worse now. Amy Walter
of the Cook Political Report did a deep dive
into the main swing states and found what we’ve already known—that
Biden is heading toward an Electoral College wipeout if these numbers
hold. In short, six key states have become more Trump-friendly, but
Biden thinks he can still win with one-third of brain capacity.
Wisconsin
is the only state where things seem close between the two candidates,
whereas Pennsylvania should induce extreme panic among Biden staffers.
It’s the state most likely to flip out of the must-win trio, including
Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden must sweep. One loss and the game is over.
With Pennsylvania gone, it’s truly over. Trump added to his lead over
Biden by between four and ten points based on private polling by
Democrats and Republicans.
Walter added that the spotlight on
Trump’s woes has been severely reduced due to the recent Supreme Court
rulings on immunity and the January 6 charges concerning obstruction of
an official proceeding via the Fischer decision. Biden now will be
subjected to constant and aggressive reporting about his health, one
where Democrats in down-ballot races may be getting a taste of what
Republicans went through when the media chased down GOP lawmakers for
comments about Trump’s social media activity. Democrats will be haggled
about Biden’s mental fitness and whether he should drop out:
The week before the June 27 debate, according to the
RealClearPolitics two-way national average, Biden trailed Trump by just
over a point. Today, Trump leads the national vote by three points.
[…]
Post-debate,
there’s been only one public nonpartisan survey of battleground states
released. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll of those six
battleground states plus North Carolina, found Trump ahead of Biden by
two points, 47% to 45%, “the smallest gap since the poll began last
October.”
However, private polling from both Democratic and
Republican sources finds Trump gaining a bit of ground — or holding
steady — in the battleground states. In one set of surveys shared with
me, Trump expanded his lead in Pennsylvania from four points to 10
points. A just-released AARP poll in Wisconsin found Trump ahead of
Biden by five points, 50%-45%. Wisconsin has been one of the few states
where Biden has managed to keep the race very close.
It’s also
true that the concerns being expressed by the so-called ‘elite’ class
have been baked in with many voters. Biden’s anemic job approval rating
isn’t just about his performance on policies like inflation or
immigration; much of it is driven by worries about his age and stamina.
And yet, many of those frustrated voters (a.k.a. “Meh” voters) were
supporting Biden pre-debate and have not necessarily flocked to Trump
post-debate.
However, given our closely divided electorate, even a
small two-point shift is significant. For example, if Trump were to win
the national popular vote by three points, it would be a seven-point
improvement from his 2020 showing. In other words, any state or district
that Biden carried by eight points or less would be competitive.
As
such, it’s hard to justify keeping states that Biden carried by less
than eight points, like Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd
District, in Likely Democrat. They now move to Lean Democrat.
It’s
also clear that Trump’s outside-the-margin leads in states like
Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are currently safe, leading us to move all
three from Toss Up to Lean Republican.
That leaves three states
in the Toss Up column: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. At present,
Pennsylvania is the most vulnerable to a flip toward Trump. Biden has
trailed in polling there since the spring by anywhere from 2-3 points.
Since the debate, however, public and private polling has shown Trump
opening up a bigger lead. Pennsylvania is also the only state in which
Trump’s SuperPAC, MAGA Inc., has spent substantially on advertising.
According to data from AdImpact, between January and May, the SuperPAC
has spent over $10 million on advertising in the state.
Walter on voter enthusiasm:
For months now, polls
have shown Republicans with an enthusiasm advantage. In addition, the
Cook Political Report’s May Swing State Project poll, conducted by BSG
and GS Strategies, found that 18% of Biden’s 2020 voters in the seven
key battleground states were uncommitted to him this time around.
One
thing that set the uncommitted voters apart from Biden loyalists was
the fact that they don’t think this election matters all that much.
While 83% of Biden loyalists say this will be “more important than other
elections in their lifetime,” just 56% of defectors feel similarly.
Moreover, just 58% of these potential defectors think it is “very
important” that they vote this year, compared to 85% of committed Biden
voters.
The Biden team has argued that though these voters may be
disengaged now, once they are made aware of the high-stakes of this
election, they will ultimately turnout for the president. However,
Biden’s weak debate performance calls into question whether he can
effectively deliver that message to these already disenfranchised and
skeptical voters.
Walter also said that Harris isn’t
a riskier bet than Biden, but there are no advantages to her taking the
top spot on the ticket either. There’s nothing to suggest that she’s a
better candidate. Like Joe, she’s also unpopular and tends to wither
when under the spotlight for too long. This woman’s campaign faded
before Tom Steyer’s in the 2020 primaries. She’s not well-liked by
voters, and she’s been a trainwreck in public events. Also, like Biden,
she cannot deviate from the script or talking points. Trump’s main goal:
getting Biden’s former supporters to stay home on Election Day:
National polls taken in the wake of the June 27 debate
suggest that unaffiliated voters haven’t flocked en masse to Trump, but
they’ve defected from Biden. Meanwhile, partisans have barely moved. In
other words, Trump’s ceiling remains somewhat firm. But, Trump is still
running stronger than he was in 2020 with traditionally Democratic
constituencies like Black and Latino voters. He doesn’t need to move
many of these voters into his camp to flip those Sun Belt states back
into the red column. Moreover, Trump doesn’t need to win over
disappointed or disillusioned anti-Trump voters; he just needs them to
stay home.
Hence, why has the former president
allowed the Democrats to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to
ripping apart Biden and creating fractures within the base over the
fallout from the June 27 debate? This discipline is a new development,
one that Democrats probably weren’t expecting and are finding
frustrating since the former president is offering no relief to the
beleaguered leftist party. So, on both counts, Biden is wrong and looks
absurd when saying that Trump didn’t gain anything and that this race is
a toss-up. We’re looking at a very good night for Republicans if this
holds. Biden may want to stop talking about the debate and move on.
Sorry, there are too many questions about your fitness, especially since
you and your staff can’t explain these trips to a neurologist
specializing in Parkinson’s Disease.
