Once-sleepy South Dakota Senate race could pose problem for GOP

South Dakota’s once-sleepy Senate race appears to be waking up – and it could throw a wrench into Republicans’ plans to seize control of the chamber next month.
The state’s Senate race for months had been considered a virtual lock for Republicans. But a new poll shows the independent in the race surging, and Democratic fundraisers have started to pour money into the contest.
Now, just as a late shake-up turned the Kansas Senate race competitive and prompted Republicans to rush to the incumbent’s aid, South Dakota could soon represent another Republican headache.
“I think the dynamics in South Dakota are putting pressure on Republicans,” said Nathan Gonzalez, managing editor of The Rothenberg Political Report.
The latest poll showed front-running former GOP Gov. Mike Rounds leading in South Dakota – but not by much.
According to the Survey USA/KOTA/KSFY/Aberdeen American News poll taken between Oct. 1 and Oct. 6, Rounds is only leading independent Larry Pressler 35-32 percent among likely voters. (Pressler is a former GOP senator who has not said how he would caucus if elected.)
Not far behind is Democrat Rick Weiland, with 28 percent.
Gonzalez said he’s not “completely surprised” over the poll findings, because “I didn’t think Rounds ever closed the deal in this race.”
But he added: “I do tend to be surprised when a third-party candidate is getting more than 20 percent.”
The survey results are raising eyebrows all over the political spectrum because the poll before it, commissioned by CBS/NYT/YouGov, had the former governor leading Pressler 42-12 percent in late September, with Weiland getting 27 percent. A Survey USA poll taken earlier that month showed Rounds with a comfortable double-digit lead ahead of both Pressler and Weiland, as did every other poll dating back to April.
So what’s happening?
Dick Wadhams, senior strategist for the Rounds campaign, told FoxNews.com the poll is an anomaly, and that “the race is not nearly as close as that.”
In fact, Rounds is still ahead with double digits, Wadhams insisted.
But the Democrats must sense the dynamics are the shifting, too, as they’re putting new resources into the race. FoxNews.com has confirmed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is devoting $1 million to the race – an investment that suggests they believe Pressler will peel just enough votes off Rounds to give their candidate a fighting chance. If either wins, that’s one fewer race Republicans can count on for the six total seats they need to seize control of the Senate.
“The DSCC must have their own data or else they wouldn’t be putting so much money into this,” Gonzalez said.
That money will add to a push of negative ads funded by other Democratic super PACs already weighing in on the race. According to reports, Every Voice Action started running TV ads on Sept. 18 criticizing Rounds. Meanwhile, Mayday, a super PAC co-founded by Harvard University law professor Lawrence Lessig, said it would start a $1 million campaign in supporting Weiland and against Rounds.
Rounds, for his part, has been dealing with questions over the so-called “EB-5 scandal,” which refers to a federal program that allowed immigrants to earn green cards by investing $500,000 in American businesses. Rounds expanded the program, which is now being scrutinized for corruption and abuse, during the tail-end of his 2003-2011 term.
“I think Rounds has not run a spectacular campaign and his fundraising has lagged,” added Gonzalez. “He’s let Pressler and Weiland define themselves, and I think he’s been averse to running negative or contrast ads,” allowing his “opponents to be whatever they want to be.”
In Pressler’s case, that’s a sage, moderate, three-term former senator who feels it’s his duty to get back to Washington for the sake of his state. Pressler, 72, has one paid staffer and only $100,000 in the bank, but his message must be resonating somewhere if the recent numbers are to be believed.
“I wouldn’t put too much stock in that,” Pressler told FoxNews.com, referring to the polls, “but I do feel we have never been so warmly received as we (he and his wife, Harriet) have been as we travel across the state.”
Pressler, who was first elected in 1978 and served three terms, was ousted by current Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, who is retiring this year. A Vietnam War veteran, Pressler is known for being the only lawmaker approached in the infamous Abscam sting who deliberately turned down the offered bribe.
“It’s somewhat audacious, but I want to do public service,” said Pressler, now a grandfather of four. He wants to serve only one term in order to bring back revenues and jobs to South Dakota, and to help break the gridlock in Washington. He counts fellow independent Sen. Angus King, of Maine, as a friend, and has not yet decided if he would caucus with the Democrats or Republicans if he upsets Rounds on Nov. 4.
But Wadhams says that is not likely to happen and so far, the political tip sheets agree. While acknowledging that the dynamics seem to be shifting, Gonzalez says the Rothenberg Political Report still has the race “leaning Republican.” Cook Political Report, too, has the race in “likely” standing, between “leaning” and “solid” Republican.
“Larry Pressler has had a bit of a honeymoon in this campaign,” Wadhams said, suggesting the gloves in the Rounds corner are about to come off.
A similar shift has taken place in Kansas, where GOP Sen. Pat Roberts now faces a challenge from independent Greg Orman – and has hammered Orman as a liberal.
In South Dakota, Wadhams said: “Voters are going to find out that there are no fundamental differences between Weiland and Pressler, that a new, liberal version of Pressler has emerged. Anyone who says he has voted for Obama twice, who supports ObamaCare and gun control – there is something wrong with that.”
Pressler acknowledges voting for President Obama, and supports the Affordable Care Act, but with modifications. He also supports limited background checks on gun purchases, he said.
“I am a practical moderate,” he said. “I would say we have a very liberal Weiland and a very conservative Rounds. I am a moderate centrist and I want to work to solve problems.”

US-led coalition intensifies airstrikes against ISIS in Kobani

The U.S.-led coalition targeting Islamic State militants ramped up airstrikes Thursday in the Syrian and Turkish border town of Kobani as the militant group reportedly sent reinforcements into intensified fighting against Kurdish forces.
The fight for the town situated near the Turkish frontier has become a major early test for the co-ordinated campaign aimed at degrading and destroying the terror group.
U.S. officials hope it could pull Turkey into the battle against the Islamic State as a means to opening up a new front, but also fear the country might stand aside and let two of its enemies, the Kurdish fighters and the Islamic State group, fight for the town.
Turkish officials have said that while they do not want Kobani to fall, they will not take on a greater role in the coalition’s strategy until it outlines a plan that also includes attacking Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Attacking Assad’s regime "is not the focus of our international coalition and not the focus of our efforts by the United States," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.
"Both sides also agreed that we will continue a dynamic and deepening bilateral consultation process across the multiple lines of effort against ISIL, including military support, countering foreign fighters, counter-finance, humanitarian assistance, and de-legitimizing ISIL's messaging and rhetoric," she said using and acronym for the Islamic State group.
Turkey has also asked for a buffer zone inside Syria to secure a border, but the White House and Pentagon have said the U.S. is not considering that option.
U.S. officials said Thursday the U.S. is largely talking to Turkey about other alternatives besides inserting ground forces into the fight: allowing U.S. and coalition aircraft to fly over Turkish territory; allowing its air base in Incirlik, some 100 miles from the Syrian border, to be used by U.S. or coalition planes or for logistics and training; and equipping moderate Syrian opposition forces fighting to topple Assad.
The fight for Kobani has brought Syria's civil war yet again to Turkey's doorstep, and for weeks the U.S. and its allies have pressed Ankara to take a more robust role in the coalition.
In addition, Kurds have held massive demonstrations across Turkey in which they accuse the government, which has deployed its tanks just across the frontier, of doing nothing to save the town.
As many as 19 people were killed around the nation in clashes with police over the government’s unwillingness to aid Kurds trapped in Kobani. 
Protesters outraged that Turkey was “letting Kobani fall” burned Turkish flags and statues of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the modern Turkish republic, when images of Kurds fleeing Kobani and pouring into Turkey sparked a global call for action against the terror group.
Responding to the criticism, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said it was unrealistic to expect Turkey to launch a ground war against the Islamic State group on its own.
Cavusoglu said Turkey is prepared to play a bigger part once a deal is reached with the coalition. "Turkey will not hold back from carrying out its role," he said.
The U.S. Central Command said five airstrikes south of Kobani since Wednesday had destroyed an Islamic State group support building and two vehicles, and damaged a training camp. The strikes also hit two groups of Islamic State fighters, it said in a statement.
The coalition airstrikes have even forced some Islamic State fighters out of Kobani.
"Indications are that Kurdish militia there continue to control most of the city and are holding out against ISIL," said the U.S. Central Command.
The Pentagon still has said the town may yet fall to the extremists because air power alone cannot prevent it.
Even with the numerous airstrikes, the Islamic State group has managed to capture a police station in Kobani, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Islamic State militants launched their offensive on Kobani in mid-September, capturing several nearby Kurdish villages and steadily strengthening their control around the town. The fighting forced at least 200,000 residents to flee into Turkey.
More than 500 people have been killed in and around Kobani since the fighting began, according to The Observatory's chief, Rami Abdurrahman. He said the Islamic State group was rushing in reinforcements, indicating the extremists also view Kobani as a test of will.

In The Back Cartoon

Fox News Polls: Senate battleground races trending GOP, Roberts up in Kansas

New Fox News battleground polls show a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate.The GOP candidates -- helped by anti-Barack Obama sentiment and strong support from male voters -- lead in all five states: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas and Kentucky.
The races, however, are still far from settled. None of the Senate candidates has a lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. And none of the front-runners hit the important marker of 50 percent support from their electorate.
Starting with Kansas, where there are two big turnarounds, here are the state-by-state results:
Kansas
Two Republican incumbents are fighting to keep their jobs in Kansas.The new Fox News poll finds both of them -- Sen. Pat Roberts and Gov. Sam Brownback -- have jumped ahead of their challengers.
CLICK FOR THE POLL RESULTS
"We know that partisanship tends to assert itself as Election Day nears,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll along with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.“And that may be happening in Kansas."
The Senate race clearly remains competitive, as 44 percent of likely voters in Kansas back Roberts, with 39 percent for independent Greg Orman and 3 percent for libertarian Randall Batson. Yet Orman was up by six points in a two-way matchup three weeks ago (48-42 percent).
Democrat Chad Taylor withdrew from the race September 3, and subsequently the court decided a Democrat does not have to appear on the ballot.
Roberts has a bit more strength of support: 82 percent of his backers say they are certain to vote for him. It’s 76 percent for Orman.
Some 73 percent of Republicans back Roberts, while 71 percent of Democrats support Orman. Independents go for Orman by 45-34 percent. Roberts maintains his overall vote advantage because there are so many more Republicans than Democrats in the Sunflower State.
Men are supporting Roberts by 50-37 percent, while women back Orman by a narrow 40-38 percent margin.
One of the attacks against Roberts is that he doesn’t own a home in Kansas, and that may hurt him. Over half of voters -- 55 percent -- say Roberts is out of touch with Kansans. Just 35 percent say he is in touch.
For Orman, 37 percent say he is in touch with the state, while 39 percent say he isn’t. Orman is still an unknown to many voters, as nearly one in four is unsure (24 percent).
Brownback was elected in 2010 and soon fulfilled a campaign promise to cut taxes. More Kansas voters think the cuts mostly have hurt (43 percent) rather than helped (36 percent) the state’s economy.
Among voters saying the tax cuts have hurt, 78 percent are backing Democratic challenger Paul Davis.
Overall, the poll finds Brownback outdoes Davis: 46-40 percent. That’s a reversal from last month when Davis was up by four (45-41 percent).
The shift comes from a few places: Support for Davis among Democrats dropped from 91 percent in September to 82 percent, and backing from independents increased for Brownback from 27 percent last month to 36 percent. In addition, Brownback’s support among men increased 10 points in the new poll since September.
Sixty-three percent of Kansas likely voters disapprove of Obama’s job performance, which makes this his worst job rating of the five battleground states tested this week.
Alaska
Likely voters in Alaska are unhappy with President Obama and don’t think much of his health care plan. That helps give Republican Dan Sullivan a 44-40 percent advantage over Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Begich.
CLICK FOR THE POLL RESULTS
It also helps Sullivan that by a 13-point spread, more Republicans (42 percent) than Democrats (29 percent) are “extremely” interested in the election.
Eighty-six percent of each candidate’s backers say they are certain to vote for their guy Nov. 4.
Men back Sullivan by a 14-point margin, while women are more likely to go for Begich by 5 points.
It’s clear why Begich has tried to distance himself from Obama -- and why Sullivan has tried to make the race a referendum on the president: 61 percent of Alaska likely voters disapprove of Obama, and 56 percent think the health care law went too far. Begich voted for ObamaCare.
About 10 percent are still undecided about their vote in the Senate race, yet two-thirds of them disapprove of the job Obama is doing. That’s an ominous sign for Begich.
Begich had to pull a much-criticized ad off television, yet the damage lingers. Over half of voters -- 53 percent -- say Begich is making unfair attacks against Sullivan. Just 40 percent feel Sullivan is attacking Begich unfairly.
In the Alaska gubernatorial race, Republican Sean Parnell receives 42 percent to non-affiliated candidate Bill Walker’s 37 percent. About one in five is undecided or will vote for someone else.
Arkansas
Republican challenger Tom Cotton is up seven points over Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor among Arkansas likely voters (46 percent vs. 39 percent). Cotton’s lead is right at the poll’s margin of error (± 3.5 percentage points).
CLICK FOR THE POLL RESULTS
Cotton’s edge is a little soft though -- almost one in five (18 percent) of his supporters say they could change their mind before Election Day. Fourteen percent of Pryor’s supporters are uncertain.
The key for Cotton is that independents are much more likely to back him than Pryor (45-26 percent). In addition, by double-digit margins, white evangelical Christians (+34 points), men (+15) and veterans (+12) support Cotton, an Army veteran who served in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
It could help Cotton that 61 percent of undecided voters disapprove of Obama.
Pryor was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002, and he supported the 2010 health care law.
It’s been a hard-hitting campaign, yet voters blame both campaigns equally: 46 percent say Pryor is making unfair attacks against Cotton, and 46 percent say Cotton is crossing the line.
Voters in Arkansas disapprove of Obama’s job performance by nearly two-to-one. Thirty-two percent approve, while 61 percent disapprove.
Meanwhile, by a 50-41 percent margin, likely voters in Arkansas oppose creating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the U.S. Those opposed favor Cotton by nearly 40 points.
Republican Asa Hutchinson is up 46-37 percent over Democrat Mike Ross in the race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe.
Colorado
Republicans in Colorado are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about the upcoming election, and that explains -- at least in part -- why the new poll shows Rep. Cory Gardner topping Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall by 43-37 percent.
CLICK FOR POLL RESULTS
Among likely voters here, nearly half of Republicans (48 percent) are “extremely” interested in the election, while less than a third of Democrats (31 percent) feel that way. This could be even more important here than in some other battleground states because Colorado now votes 100 percent by mail and people can register to vote up through Election Day.
Gardner’s support is stronger, with 85 percent of his backers “certain” to vote for him compared to 80 percent of Udall’s.
Independents (+15 points), men (+17), gun owners (+29) and white evangelical Christians (+38) are more likely to back Gardner.
Udall has the edge among Hispanics (+20 points), lower income voters (+13), urban voters (+11) and women (+5).
Overall, a 52-percent majority says the 2010 health care law “went too far,” and three-quarters of those voters are supporting Gardner. Sen. Udall, who was first elected in 2008, voted for the law.
On immigration, 50 percent favor allowing illegal immigrants to eventually qualify for citizenship, while 39 percent are opposed. Those in favor back Udall (56-24 percent). Those opposed support Gardner (67-16 percent).
The Colorado governor’s race is all tied up at 42 percent apiece for Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper and Republican challenger Bob Beauprez.
Voters in the Centennial State disapprove of the job Obama is doing by 57-36 percent. Obama’s personal favorable rating was 54 percent in the 2012 Fox News exit poll.
Even though Obama’s job rating is underwater by 21 percentage points here, this is the best job rating he receives of the five battleground state polls.
Kentucky
U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is narrowly ahead of Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes -- 45-41 percent -- among Kentucky likely voters.
CLICK FOR POLL RESULTS
There are clear reasons why the race remains tight. First, enthusiasm among Democrats and Republicans is evenly matched in Kentucky, as about three in 10 from each party are “extremely” interested in the election. In addition, roughly equal numbers of Grimes (86 percent certain) and McConnell (88 percent) supporters say they are “certain” to vote for them.
And party loyalty is about the same for each, as 77 percent of Democrats plan to vote for Grimes, while 78 percent of Republicans plan to back McConnell. The small subgroup of independents backs McConnell by almost two-to-one, and this gives him the edge.
Men are more likely to back McConnell (+11 points), while women go for Grimes (+2 points).
Just over a third of Kentucky likely voters support the Tea Party movement -- and 72 percent of those supporters favor McConnell.
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The polls were conducted October 4-7, 2014, by telephone (landline and cell phone) with live interviewers among a random sample of likely voters in Alaska (706), Arkansas (707), Colorado (739), Kansas (702) and Kentucky (706). Results based on the full sample in each state have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Investigator claims he was told to delay Secret Service prostitution report until after election

The lead investigator into the Secret Service prostitution scandal told Senate staffers that he was directed to delay the release of the report until after the 2012 election, according to a published report. 
According to The Washington Post, David Nieland also said that he was instructed by his superiors in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) inspector general's office to "withhold and alter certain information in the report of investigation because it was potentially embarrassing to the administration."
The Post also reported that senior White House aides were given information suggesting that a prostitute had stayed in the hotel room of a member of the White House's advance team, contrary to earlier denials that any member of the administration was involved. 
Nearly two dozen Secret Service agents were disciplined or fired as part of the scandal, which began when Secret Service agents brought prostitutes into their hotel in Cartagena, Colombia ahead of President Obama's trip to the Summit of the Americas in April 2012. The Post reports that the Secret Service twice shared the findings of its own internal investigation with top White House officials, who concluded that the advance team member had done nothing wrong. 
Charles Edwards, the Department of Homeland Security's acting inspector general at the time of the investigation, told the Senate staffers that any changes to the report were part of the editing process, a statement that was backed by White House spokesman Eric Schultz.
"As the bipartisan Senate investigation found ... changes made to the IG Report were 'part of the ordinary process of editing the report' and found that allegations that changes were made because they were embarrassing could not be substantiated," Schultz said in a statement late Wednesday. 
The White House advance team member has been identified as Jonathan Dach, then a 25-year-old Yale Law School student and volunteer who helped to coordinate drivers for the White House travel office. The Post reports that Dach has repeatedly denied bringing prostitutes to his hotel room. Prostitution is legal in parts of Colombia, including in Cartagena. 
The DHS inspector general's office conducted its own investigation into the scandal at the request of a subcommittee of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Nieland told staffers that Edwards had asked him to remove references to Dach in their report after Edwards had briefed then-Homeland Security secretary Janet Napolitano on the advance team member's possible involvement. A spokesman for Napolitano denied that she had asked for the report to be altered or delayed.
Nieland and two other members of the office later claimed that they were put on administrative leave for questioning the changes to the report, claims that The Post reports their superiors denied.  
A White House official told Fox News that the inspector general's report did say that a "reported member of the White House staff and/or advance team ...  had personal encounters with female Colombia nationals consistent with the misconduct reported," though Dach was not identified by name.

More than a dozen states plan to cancel health care policies not in compliance with ObamaCare

More than a dozen states plan to cancel health care policies not in compliance with ObamaCare in the coming weeks, affecting thousands of people just before the midterm elections.
"It looks like several hundred thousand people across the country will receive notices in the coming days and weeks," said Jim Capretta of the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
The policies are being canceled because states that initially granted a reprieve at the request of President Obama are no longer willing to do so.
In coming weeks, 13 states and the District of Columbia plan to cancel such policies, which generally fall out of compliance with the Affordable Care Act because they don’t offer the level of coverage the law requires.
Virginia will be hardest hit, with 250,000 policies expected to be canceled.
And because federal law requires a 60-day notice of any plan changes, voters will be notified no later than November 1, right before the Nov. 4 midterms.
Many of those forced out of their current plans and into ObamaCare may not be able to keep their doctors. They also could face higher deductibles and out-of-pocket expenses, making ObamaCare an election issue on the eve of voting.
Obama had originally unequivocally promised that underhis health care plan, everyone could keep their doctors and plans.
In 2009, he told the American Medical Association, "If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor. Period.If you like your health care plan, you will be able to keep your health care plan. Period.No one will take it away. No matter what."
The president later was forced to admit that any plan without the additional benefits required under ObamaCare faced cancellation.
But that unleashed a nasty political backlash, forcing him to back down and call for states and insurers to extend those policies forthree more years.
Some said he didn’t have much choice. "There were some five or six million people who were at stake here and the federal exchange was in no condition to even process a few hundred thousand people much less millions," said Joe Antos of the American Enterprise Institute.
Many states flatly refused to extend and now comes the new round of states that plan to cancel policies.

Michelle Obama Cartoon

Reporter blocked from rally with first lady, free press groups cry foul

A Wisconsin reporter says he was blocked Tuesday from covering a Democratic rally in Madison headlined by first lady Michelle Obama -- a week after another reporter claimed she was told at a similar event in Milwaukee not to speak with people in the crowd. 
The latest incident has raised concerns from free press groups. 
The reporter, Adam Tobias, works for Wisconsin Reporter -- the Wisconsin arm of the news site Watchdog.org. He was trying to attend a rally for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mary Burke and claimed to have submitted his request for credentials on Saturday, "shortly after the Burke campaign sent a news release outlining the logistics." 
But the reporter was told he could not attend, and videotaped his encounter with a spokeswoman for the state Democratic Party on Monday. 
Spokeswoman Melissa Baldauff initially did not give a reason for denying entry to Tobias. But when the reporter told her they would write a story on press being turned away, she suggested Watchdog.org was not part of the press. 
"Well, you're not the press though, so, thanks," Baldauff said, closing the door. 
Wisconsin Reporter is one of more than two-dozen state news organizations under the umbrella of the Franklin Center for Government and Public Integrity. 
Franklin Center President Jason Stverak blasted the state party for preventing the site from covering Tuesday's rally -- one of two Michelle Obama was headlining for Democratic candidates. 
"The problem with our political process is a lack of transparency, and the most recent move by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin is an affront to free speech and the freedom of the press," he said in a statement. "Having said that, I think we understand what's at work here: Wisconsin Reporter has broken some of the most important stories in the state, not all of them comfortable for the Democratic Party leadership. We will continue to report the truth, and we won't be deterred by petty, partisan politics." 
According to Watchdog.org, free press groups voiced concern about the decision. "It seems to me that Wisconsin Reporter ought to be able to attend the event and report on it," Mark Pitsch, president of the local chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists, said. 
The incident comes after a reporter with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel claimed last week that she had an encounter with a White House aide during a separate Michelle Obama rally for Mary Burke. 
Meg Kissinger, a reporter for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, posted on Facebook that she was "creeped out" after she was told by a White House aide and an aide for Burke not to speak with people attending the event. 
"This is what reporters do in America: we speak to people," she wrote. "At least that's how I've been doing things -- at all kinds of political events -- since 1979." 
Kissinger later said on Twitter that she did not comply with the aides' rule, and spoke with "plenty" of crowd members. Her report from the event contained interviews with multiple crowd members.