Conservative Blogger
Sunday, February 21, 2016
America, we could be looking at a Trump, Clinton contest
For the first time in months, it wasn’t just a big night for political outsiders.
After a virtual tie in Iowa and a blowout in New Hampshire, Hilary Clinton needed to show that she could turn out voters, that her message was resonating and that there was an end – or at least a pause – in Bernie Sanders’s momentum.
In Saturday’s Nevada caucus she certainly showed that.
With polls showing a tightening race in the past few days after she led by over 25 points just six weeks ago, it was possible that Sanders could’ve pulled this out. But the Clinton “firewall” of African-American voters was out in full force as they voted for her three-to-one -- an excellent sign as she heads to South Carolina where over 50 percent of the electorate is black and she is heavily favored to win.
No one has doubted the strength of Sanders’s message focusing on the rigged economy, reining in Wall Street, offering universal health care and tuition free college with liberal voters. Saturday in Nevada the Vermont senator still won with those who identified themselves as liberal and voters under 45 who went for Sanders three- to-one. He also far surpassed expectations with Latinos, showing that his message can resonate with minority voters.
But Clinton won handedly with moderates, which adds to the argument that she’s more electable come November. And she won, critically, with women – a voting bloc that she has been rapidly losing over the last few months. This is especially significant after the comments by Madeleine Albright and Gloria Steinem just two weeks ago that exposed a large gulf in the way that younger women look at feminism – and Clinton herself – as compared to women of Clinton’s generation.
Furthermore, Clinton showed that she has figured out a winning formula for how to be associated with Obama successfully: she won over 75 percent of voters who want to continue his policies. This also certainly helps her to keep the black vote as we go through the primaries.
Sanders isn’t stopping anytime soon, but Saturday really couldn't have gone better for Clinton.
And the same could be said for Donald Trump who won the South Carolina primary decisively.
Hot off a feud with the pope and a few polls showing his lead under 10 points in South Carolina and even narrowing nationally, there was talk that Trump would win, but not by as much as had been projected.
But the South Carolina voters had something else in mind.
Trump won with retirees, military personnel and veterans and Evangelicals amongst other groups.
We must consider how astounding it is that Ted Cruz couldn’t win in a state like South Carolina with such a large born-again Christian voter base. And that of the entire field of GOP candidates – including Cruz and Carson, two devout Christians – that Jerry Falwell, Jr. endorsed Trump.
Or that Trump could go after President George W. Bush in a state where Bush has over 80 percent favorability and who campaigned for his brother on President’s Day and not be hurt whatsoever.
Saturday night also brought the news that Jeb Bush, once the frontrunner, has dropped out of the race. The question now is if the establishment will finally accept that Trump is on the path to become the Republican nominee. The rest of the primary states are much more favorable to Trump than New Hampshire and South Carolina, where he won handedly.
We could very well be seeing a Trump/Clinton general election match-up.
Now won’t that be fun?
Bush suspends campaign, bows out of 2016 race
Republican presidential hopeful Jeb Bush suspended his once front-running campaign for the White House on Saturday, following a poor showing in the South Carolina primary.
“I’m proud of the campaign that we have run to unify our country,” Bush said. “But the people of Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken, and I really respect their decision. So tonight I am suspending my campaign.”
Bush was mired in single digits in South Carolina returns and had failed to place in the top three in any of the early contests. Bush, the former Florida governor, entered the 2016 presidential race as an early favorite, but steadily fell in the polls, despite having had a couple strong debate performances in recent weeks.
“The presidency is bigger than any one person,” Bush said during an emotional speech. “It is certainly bigger than any candidate.”
He added that he firmly believed "the American people must entrust this office to someone who understands that whoever holds it is a servant, not the master."
But Bush’s campaign seemed to struggle out of the gate. He first promised to run as his “own man” and distanced himself from his family but later relied on the Bush family name on the campaign trail.
The son of George H. W. Bush and brother of George W. Bush entered the race to huge expectations in June, and quickly fueled them with fundraising. Working with a super PAC that has supported his candidacy, Bush and allies raised more than $150 million by the end of 2015 -- far more than any of his GOP rivals.
However, Bush's presence in the race and fundraising potential wasn't enough to dissuade more than a dozen other Republicans from entering the race, including fellow Floridian, Sen. Marco Rubio.
Fundraising reports filed Saturday night show how dire Bush's financial situation had become.
His big-money super PAC raised just $379,000 in January, and most of that was from a single donor who'd also given the same amount to rival Marco Rubio. The group, Right to Rise, had blown through more than $85 million over the past nine months, largely on TV ads, bashing other candidates, most notably Rubio.
Meanwhile, Bush's official campaign -- which provided basic funding for his travel and political staff -- had less than $3 million in available cash as the month began. He had only been able to raise $1.6 million in January, despite a once-sprawling donor network.
Bush's failure to ignite was not simply a factor of the size of the GOP field. Bush, like others, was caught off-guard by the durable popularity of political outsiders -- particularly Trump.
The final stage of Bush's campaign became an all-out bout with the outspoken real estate mogul -- the two frequently referring to each other as a "loser." Bush took shots at Trump's lack of experience while Trump attacked Bush's family legacy, particularly the unpopular Iraq war waged by his brother George W. Bush.
Bush, meanwhile, offered himself as an experienced public executive and potential world statesman informed in part by his father's and brother's wartime presidencies. But it wasn't a case strong enough to translate into votes.
"I just don't see a third Bush presidency," Julie Michau of Beaufort, South Carolina, said Wednesday after attending a Bush event.
There were other problems as well. The policy-oriented Bush was overshadowed in early debates by Trump and Rubio, which dramatically slowed his early autumn fundraising.
Bush went on to finish sixth in the Iowa caucuses, but barely squeezed ahead of Rubio in New Hampshire for a fourth place finish. South Carolina was viewed as a last early voting state for Bush to make a mark.
While the South Carolina primary claimed Bush, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who returns indicate will finish either last or second-to-last, has vowed to stay in the race.
In a lengthy speech, Carson told his supporters that “people are being easily manipulated and told what they are supposed to think and who they are supposed to follow.” He added that he “truly believes as time goes on more and more people will begin to get serious.”
Trump wins South Carolina GOP primary
Donald Trump swept to victory in the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday, putting him in a commanding position as the race shifts to a slew of delegate-rich contests.
Jeb Bush, though, abruptly suspended his campaign after a distant finish, leaving unclear to whom his supporters will gravitate.
But Trump, at his victory rally, seemed to dismiss the notion that other candidates would benefit from Bush's exit.
"[The pundits] don't understand that as people drop out, I'm going to get a lot of those votes," Trump said.
He said the primary race lately has been "mean" and "vicious" but: "When you win, it's beautiful."
He closed by saying, "Let’s put this thing away, and let’s make America great again."
Trump's victory is not by the big double-digit margin that pre-election polls had suggested. Still, this makes back-to-back victories for Trump, who more than doubled the vote of his closest competitor in New Hampshire last week.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio remain locked in a battle for second place.
With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Rubio is narrowly leading Cruz with just over 22 percent. Trump leads with 33 percent.
Both candidates were staying confident.
"After tonight, this has become a three-person race, and we will win the nomination,” Rubio told supporters.
Rubio placed third in Iowa, but stumbled in New Hampshire following a rough debate performance. He vowed to bounce back, and entered the South Carolina contest enjoying support from the state's popular governor, Nikki Haley, and other state leaders.
Senior Cruz aides maintained the Texas senator remains “well-positioned” going into looming Southern state primaries, since he won Iowa and placed third in New Hampshire.
Lagging far behind Saturday were the three other candidates – Ohio Gov. John Kasich, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Bush, all of whom appear to be stuck in single digits.
While Bush suspended his campaign, Carson vowed to stay in, as did Kasich.
The GOP race heads next to Nevada and after that to Super Tuesday, representing a delegate gold mine. Even South Carolina, with 50 delegates, is the most valuable GOP primary to date. As the winner, Trump would get the lion's share.
South Carolina, historically, also is a prized contest for Republican candidates as it has a knack for picking the eventual nominee – the primary winner has gone on to claim the nomination in every race since 1980, except for 2012 when Newt Gingrich won.
The state has a reputation as well for bringing out bare-knuckle campaign tactics, and this year was no exception. Charges of dirty politics flew on all sides in the lead-up to Saturday’s primary, with robo-calls and misleading websites surfacing about the candidates.
The race tightened in the final days, but not enough to shake Trump's long-time advantage there.
Trump had enjoyed a 13-point lead in the latest average of pre-election polls by Real Clear Politics. Fox News exit polls indicate significant numbers of late-deciding voters ended up supporting Cruz and Rubio, causing both candidates to perform more strongly than pre-election polling suggested.
Trump, according to exit polls, was still the overwhelming favorite among voters who said they’re angry with the federal government. Cruz, though, had the edge among voters who said their top issue is terrorism.
But of the three other candidates, only Kasich has made it onto the leaderboard in the three opening contests. With Bush out, he's the last governor standing in the race.
Bush, the former Florida governor, entered the 2016 presidential race as an early favorite, but fell in the polls steadily, despite having had a couple strong debate performances in recent weeks.
“The presidency is bigger than any one person. It is certainly bigger than any candidate,” he said in suspending his campaign.
SOUTH CAROLINA GOP PRIMARY RESULTS
Kasich, who placed second in New Hampshire, had low expectations in South Carolina. He is looking toward more moderate states that vote later in March.
Trump's victory, meanwhile, could foreshadow a solid performance in the collection of Southern states that vote on March 1. Victories in those Super Tuesday contests could put the billionaire in a commanding position in the delegate count, which determines the nomination.
Trump won in South Carolina after the Democrats held caucuses earlier in the day in Nevada, where Hillary Clinton was projected the winner.
Trump wins big in SC primary as Bush bows out; Clinton edges Sanders in Nev.
Donald Trump charges into Nevada and the mega-March primaries with a commanding lead over the GOP field after sweeping to victory Saturday in the South Carolina primary – while Hillary Clinton can breathe a sigh of relief that her firewall held just enough to beat back Bernie Sanders in Nevada, as they head to Palmetto State territory.
The outcome of Saturday’s contests helps both 2016 “front-runners” regain their footing after going one-for-one in the leadoff contests. But there are potential hurdles ahead.
The big question now looming over the GOP race is: With Jeb Bush suspending his campaign on the heels of a distant finish Saturday, where will his supporters go?
At his victory rally, Trump challenged pundits who say such votes will gravitate to his rivals. The billionaire businessman sounded a booming note of confidence as he previewed the race ahead.
“Let’s put this thing away,” Trump told cheering supporters.
Reflecting on the rough-and-tumble primary, which gave him a 10-point margin of victory, Trump also said, “When you win, it’s beautiful. “
Clinton heads into the next round in a more fragile – albeit improved – position.
Clinton has watched her lead in national polls essentially evaporate after losing big in New Hampshire. Her showing in Nevada marks a crucial victory, and she enjoys a significant advantage heading into next weekend’s South Carolina primary.
“I am so, so thrilled and so grateful to all of my supporters,” Clinton said at her Las Vegas victory rally.
NEVADA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
SOUTH CAROLINA GOP PRIMARY RESULTS
But her 5-point margin of victory may not be enough, at this stage, to significantly blunt Sanders’ momentum. The Vermont senator maintained he has an “excellent chance” to score some big wins in the upcoming Super Tuesday contests.
The Palmetto State, meanwhile, delivered a huge victory Saturday night on the Republican side to Trump -- while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz were locked in a tight race for second.
Cruz nevertheless gave a fiery speech to supporters, as the senator touted his campaign’s ability to defy “expectations” and maintained that he’s the best candidate to go up against Clinton or Sanders “or whatever other socialist they nominate” on the Democratic side.
“Indeed, the screaming you hear now from across the Potomac is the Washington cartel in full terror that the conservative grassroots are rising up,” Cruz said, while suggesting he’s the only candidate who can beat Trump.
Rubio, for his part, declared: “After tonight, this has become a three-person race, and we will win the nomination.”
Rubio was in need of a recovery after stumbling in New Hampshire following a rough debate performance earlier this month. He had vowed to bounce back, and was buoyed in South Carolina by support from the state's popular governor, Nikki Haley, and other state leaders.
With Bush now out of the race, Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the only governor left standing on the GOP side. It remains unclear where his supporters will go. The only other candidate left is retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who vowed to press on.
The GOP race heads next to Nevada and after that to Super Tuesday, representing a delegate gold mine. Even South Carolina, with 50 delegates, is the most valuable GOP primary to date. As the winner, Trump would get the lion's share.
South Carolina, historically, also is a prized contest for Republican candidates as it has a knack for picking the eventual nominee – the primary winner has gone on to claim the nomination in every race since 1980, except for 2012 when Newt Gingrich won.
The race tightened in the final days, but not enough to shake Trump's long-time advantage there. Fox News exit polls indicate significant numbers of late-deciding voters ended up supporting Cruz and Rubio, causing both candidates to perform more strongly than pre-election polling suggested.
Clinton’s Nevada win comes just a week-and-a-half after she lost to Sanders by double-digits in New Hampshire.
"To everyone who turned out in every corner of Nevada with determination and heart: This is your win. Thank you," Clinton tweeted after the race was called.
Saturday, February 20, 2016
'A man of honor': Visitors line up to pay tribute to Justice Scalia
Thomas Randall braved bitter cold temperatures and a long line Friday to make his way into the gilded lobby of the U.S. Supreme Court and pay his respects to a fellow lawyer with whom he agreed on very little.
Randall was one of hundreds of Americans who stood in a block-long line, waiting to climb the steps and pass between towering marble columns into the building where Justice Antonin Scalia lay in repose. The flag-draped casket containing the body of the 79-year-old justice rested atop the Lincoln Catafalque in the Great Hall, just outside the venerable courtroom where Scalia forged his sometimes controversial reputation as one of the most influential conservatives in the history of the high court.
Scalia was found dead in his bed on Saturday at a luxury ranch where he was vacationing. (AP)
(Associated Press)
“He’s a hero, had a good sense of humor, and was a brilliant scholar."“He is the example of bipartisanship our nation needs,” said Francis Crotti, a Baltimore native now living in Washington, to honor the son of Italian immigrants known for his sharp dissents and fealty to the literal Constitution.
- Vince McLaughlin
Just below the steps leading into the building, Scalia’s fans created a makeshift memorial that included two jars of applesauce, a pile of fortune cookies and paper bags, invocations of two of Scalia’s recent and most stinging dissenting opinions. Scalia called a majority ruling upholding ObamaCare “pure applesauce,” and likened his fellow justices’ gay marriage opinion to the "mystical aphorisms of the fortune cookie." Of the decision legalizing gay marriage, Scalia wrote that he would “hide my head in a bag” if he’d ever joined such an opinion.
Even as the line stretched around First and East Capitol streets, a somber silence was underscored by the sound of the American Flag’s ropes clinging against the flagpole. The half-staffed flag drooped down in front of the building, despite the wind, as though the flag itself was paying tribute to Justice Scalia.
“Moments like these you realize just how many lives he touched,” said Maria Calderon, a New Yorker who was visiting Washington with her husband. Seeing the well-wishers and knowing Scalia grew up in Queens gave her a warm feeling despite the blustery temperatures in the 30s.
Mike Judge, who waited in line with his wife Anne and their children, said the trip was part of a homeschool civics lesson on the Supreme Court.
“I want them to have an appreciation for Justice Scalia and to have an appreciation for the court,” Judge said. “Scalia was a man of honor.”
Vince McLaughlin, a Philadelphia native, dabbed at tears as he reflected on Scalia’s life and legal influence.
“He’s a hero, had a good sense of humor, and was a brilliant scholar,” he said. “A big loss to the Court.”
As the public began entering the building shortly after 10:30am, visitors took at the entrance of the Supreme Court holding signs in support of Scalia and his family. One sign thanked Scalia for his service to the nation. Another read “God Bless the USA and the Scalia family.”
When people trickled into the Grand Hall, many took a moment and stood in front of the casket, offering a moment of remembrance and appreciation for the life of Justice Scalia. Some made the sign of the cross while others bowed their heads and closed their eyes.
President Obama, accompanied by first lady Michelle Obama, paid tribute to the late justice Friday. He also took a moment of silence and bowed his head over Scalia's casket.
Families exemplified the magnitude of the emotion this morning by walking down in almost of a consoling embrace. Some wiped tears away as they exited the Hall and walked down the front steps.
So many people wished to see Scalia in the Grand Hall of the Supreme Court that viewing hours were extended past 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. or after. His funeral will be on Saturday morning.
Evangelicals split going into SC primary
Donald Trump, a thrice-married multi-billionaire who is not averse to cussing and once said he was pro-choice, has found evangelical Christian support ahead of Saturday’s hotly contested South Carolina primary.
Trump is leading among evangelical Christian voters with 31 percent in the latest Fox News poll, but Sen. Ted Cruz is only eight points behind at 23 percent, with Marco Rubio at 17 percent and Gov. Jeb Bush at 10 percent, reflecting the divisions among evangelical voters.
“I’ve been in politics for a while, I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Nate Leupp, co-chair of the Republican Party of Greenville and a self-described evangelical voter. “People are getting upset with each other.”
Cruz, the son of a preacher, was first to pursue the Christian conservative vote in South Carolina. Rafael Cruz, his father, has been campaigning for him in the state since long before Trump made his first visit, say political watchers on the ground. Cruz’s campaign says he has the endorsement of “over 300 pastors and faith leaders” in South Carolina.
“A lot of people have typically thought the evangelical vote was monolithic in South Carolina,” said Randy Page, public relations director at the conservative Bob Jones University. “Perhaps in some cycles it has been.” Page said he is personally backing Rubio.
But now there seems to be a schism among more traditionalist evangelicals like Leupp who is “stunned” that his peers are supporting a divorcee with “a foul mouth, a lack of morals,” and the more new age, Pentecostal Christians who see Trump as a man who has sinned but can be saved. The former, says Leupp and Page, are sending up their prayers for Cruz and Rubio.
The latter are represented in large part by young evangelicals, and television and megachurch pastors like Mark Burns, pastor of the Greenville, S.C-based Christian Television Network. He’s been on the campaign trail stumping for Trump. He acknowledged that he was heckled at a recent appearance at Bob Jones University when he said Trump was “pro-faith.”
“Bob Jones is (part) of the old establishment, that’s the crowd it draws,” Burns told FoxNews.com. “It doesn’t do what the Pentecostal, new age movement does, which is bring the message of grace.”
Aside from the divide among religious philosophies, Burns says South Carolinians are angry with the government and pre-packaged politicians, and are willing to forgive what they see as Trump's moral transgressions in favor of his “authenticity.”
“He is appealing to evangelicals across the board because he (is) authentic and what you see is what you get,” said Burns.
“Millions of Americans are angry and frustrated with politicians, especially those who come to South Carolina and they know the song and dance and they’re saying they are one of us and when they go back to Washington they are voting for legal abortions and same-sex marriage.”
“Trump is a fighter. He is the one to fight for Christianity and for our conservative values we hold dear.”
Leupp agrees voters are angry and that there are many evangelicals who are willing to overlook their own moral -- and political -- principles to vote for Trump. They point to Republicans who have failed them in Washington and presidential candidates who got the religious conservative backing, and lost, like Mitt Romney in 2012, and John McCain in 2008.
In 2012, white evangelical Christians went for Newt Gingrich in the primaries by 45 percent. Gingrich, a conservative stalwart (despite being married three times), won the state primaries in South Carolina and Georgia before dropping out of the race in May 2012.
Evangelicals want a winner. “They use that to justify their ‘we don’t need a person with a record, it’s time to back a person without a record’” approach,” said Leupp, who was backing Bush but is still undecided. He knows one thing: it’ll be anyone but Trump.
"Trump as a nominee would do more to destroy the conservative movement and the Republican Party than Hillary Clinton would do in four years as president,” he declared. “We need to unify behind someone who can beat Donald Trump.”
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