Plot twist: Long ignored, California could be deciding factor in GOP race

Just one month before the Republican presidential convention, the fate of the party's primary race could be determined in the unlikeliest of battlegrounds: California. 
The state, voting alongside several others on June 7, was never expected to be a major factor this year due to its late position on the primary calendar. But now, the tight state of the race means territory long known as a bastion for liberal Democratic politics will have incredible sway over the GOP contest.
With 172 delegates in play, the largest haul of any state on the primary map, California could help decide whether Donald Trump is able to clinch the nomination before the July convention -- or whether the party will be looking at a floor fight in Cleveland.
“We’re not used to talking about California being an important state in the general or primary election -- particularly the Republican side in the primaries. But this year, every delegate matters, and California, which is sitting right at the end of the calendar on June 7, is a huge prize,” said Nathan Gonzales, head of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, an election handicapper.
While California is the land of Reagan, the imperative to court the state's voters represents an obvious challenge for Republican candidates.

Delegates Awarded to Republican Candidates | InsideGov

Hollywood, San Francisco ... these aren't exactly hubs of the conservative cause. But the state is vast -- 163,000 square miles -- and candidates will have to figure out where their message plays best.

2016 Election Headquarters

The latest headlines on the 2016 elections from the biggest name in politics. See Latest Coverage →

Bill Whalen, politics research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, said the battle will be waged across a diverse population, which ranges from the Latino strongholds of Southern California to the wealthy Silicon Valley tech elites in the north to the socially conservative evangelicals of the "inland empire."
The successful candidate here will have to navigate those ramparts and everything in between.
The most recent poll shows front-runner Trump with the edge.
According to a Public Policy Institute of California poll of likely voters taken in the 12-day period leading up to Marco Rubio’s departure from the race on March 15, Trump had a comfortable lead in the state with 38 percent, followed by Ted Cruz with 19 percent and John Kasich with 12 percent. After Rubio suspended his campaign, the PPIC recalculated, taking Rubio out of the mix and working in voters' second choice. This gave Cruz a bump to 27 percent and Kasich to 14 percent, while Trump remained at 38 percent.
Whalen, though, said Cruz could have an advantage.
“There’s going to be a premium on the ground organization and that favors Cruz,” he said.
As of this week’s contests, Trump has 739 delegates, Cruz has 465, and Kasich has 143. One of these candidates has to reach 1,237 to win the nomination outright, or else the process moves to a contested convention this summer.
The way California's primary system is set up, the winning candidate there has the potential to take home a huge stash of delegates.
That's because the 172 delegates will be awarded by congressional district, meaning the three delegates in each of the 53 districts go to the winner of that district -- plus 13 bonus delegates to the candidate who gets the most votes statewide.
“I think California is going to matter a lot,” Gonzales said, adding, “It’s going to be a challenge for these candidates. There are hundreds of miles of opportunity to make their mark.”
Candidates stand to win or lose not only in the state’s few GOP bastions like the Central Valley 23rd District -- home to House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy -- but in congressional districts that are typically a no-go for Republicans, like the 13th, which includes Berkeley and Oakland and went 87 percent for President Obama in 2012.
It doesn’t matter the district; each has three delegates in play.
While candidates will have difficulty traveling to each district and television media in the state is expensive, resources will have to concentrate on direct mail and targeted email, Internet advertising and social media, said Gonzales. Candidates will need a game plan to solidify the voters already in their corners, and reach out to new ones who could help tip the scales on June 7.
California also is a closed primary, which means only Republicans can vote -- a potential plus for Cruz, who has done better in closed state primaries and caucuses.
So what does the California Republican look like?
According to David Brady, political science professor at Stanford University, it depends where you go.
“California Republicans are somewhat divided, with the majority being fiscal conservatives, but more socially liberal than Republicans in other regions of the country,” he said. “This is particularly true in the coastal populated regions while the interior has more social conservatives which is associated with evangelicals.”
He predicted "Cruz will do well in the interior regions" and could pick up support from voters opposing Trump. "However, in terms of pure ideology, most coastal Republicans are closer to Kasich,” he said.
As far as issues go, Whalen noted that what plays in the rest of the country is resonating in California, too. “The California Republican Party is a microcosm of the national GOP,” he said. “The party is struggling over immigration.” Brady added that the economy and terrorism continue to be hot-button issues in the state, with the water shortage of local importance.

Belgian government admits errors hindered effort to stop Brussels attacks

Belgium's government admitted Thursday that more could have been done to prevent Tuesday's suicide bombings in Brussels, as two high-ranking ministers offered to resign over law enforcement's failure to act on a warning from Turkey last year that it had arrested one of the would-be bombers. 
Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel asked Interior Mininster Jan Jambon and Justice Minister Koen Geens to stay on, given the current challenge the government is facing. However, Geens admitted to reporters that authorities "don't have to be proud about what happened," adding, "We perhaps did things we should not have done."
The attacks on the Zaventem airport and a subway train killed at least 31 people and injured 250 others. Revelations that the attacks were carried out by the same ISIS cell behind last November's attacks in Paris that killed 130 people have led to uncomfortable questions for Belgian counterterrror intelligence and policing.
Many of the questions were prompted by Turkey's disclosure Wednesday that it had apprehended one of the airport suicide bombers, Ibrahim El Bakraoui, near Turkey's border with Syria, in June 2015. El Bakraoui was deported to the Netherlands at his request, but was later set free by the Dutch for lack of proof of his involvement with jihadis.
Turkey said it had warned Belgium that it had flagged El Bakraoui as a "foreign terrorist fighter." El Bakraoui had a criminal record in Belgium at the time he went to Turkey, but Belgian authorities also could find no links to terrorism.
Geens appeared on a Belgian TV news show and was asked who was to blame for the failure to follow up on the Turkish warning.
"It is clear it is not one single person, but it is true that we could have expected from Ankara or Istanbul a more diligent communication, we think, that perhaps could have avoided certain things."
"Our own services should perhaps have been more critical about the place where the person had been detained," he added, referring to Turkey's border area with Syria.
"When someone is arrested there in a city few people know, it is clear enough for insiders that it could be a terrorist," Geens said. "Here, though, he was not known as a terrorist. It is the only moment we could have linked him to it. And that moment, perhaps, we missed."
The justice minister acknowledged that "we have to be very self-critical."
But Geens added that "such events have also happened in nations with the best intelligence services in the world," pointing to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States.
Authorities had been unable to find Salah Abdeslam, one of the Paris ringleaders and described as one of Europe's most wanted men, until a breakthrough led them to a Brussels apartment where he was arrested Friday.
Abdeslam evaded police in two countries for four months before his capture, and the attackers in Brussels may have rushed their plot because they felt authorities closing in.
The intelligence shortcomings have prompted European authorities to once again call for quicker and more efficient intelligence cooperation.
Rob Wainwright, the head of Europe's police agency Europol, told the Associated Press his agency is trying to make sure investigators have access to needed information.
"You have a fragmented intelligence picture but we're trying to help with that," he said. "Our databases contain thousands of names of suspected foreign fighters which have been submitted by member states, and even the United States. But we also have records on arms smuggling, money laundering, forgery and other elements which are particularly relevant given that many of these guys had petty crime backgrounds."
He said the threat goes beyond France and Belgium and that it is impossible to reduce it to zero.
"We are looking at large numbers of foreign fighters who have returned as potential terrorists," he said. "And we are faced with a strategic decision by the Islamic State to aggressively target Europe. These are all very challenging dimensions. As for how large the community is and who has been sent back - that is the golden question."

John Kasich Cartoon

Spoiler

Belgian bloodbath shakes up campaign as Trump is first to call morning shows

When the awful news broke about the terrorist attacks in Belgium, the “Today” show asked Donald Trump to call in, which he promptly did.
Matt Lauer said the NBC show also asked for a phoner with Hillary Clinton, and she declined. Later, though, she apparently had a change of heart and phoned in as well.
A small thing, to be sure, and I hesitate to inject presidential politics into a tragic event that left more than 30 people dead at the Brussels airport and a subway station.
But terrorism is a central issue in this campaign, and the news came on a day when Utah, Arizona and Idaho were voting in primaries and caucuses.
The fact that “Today” and “Fox & Friends” had Trump call in underscores how he’s now thought of as a potential commander-in-chief. When he told Lauer that “I would be very, very tough on the borders,” it was a reminder that Trump’s terror talk—bomb the S out of ISIS, temporarily ban Muslims from entering the U.S.—has boosted his popularity among Republican voters.
Trump’s aggressive stance—he called Brussels “a total mess” and also talked about the need to waterboard terror suspects—set up a stark contrast with the former secretary of State. She said that torture is not effective and would put our own citizens and soldiers at risk. And, Clinton said, “It's unrealistic to say we're going to completely shut down our borders to everyone. That would stop commerce, for example, and that's not in anybody's interest.” She also phoned in to “Good Morning America.”

2016 Election Headquarters

The latest headlines on the 2016 elections from the biggest name in politics. See Latest Coverage →

The death toll in Belgium is going to change the tenor of the campaign for some time to come, even though it is difficult to hold the Obama administration accountable for every attack around the world. The president was out of position, going through the planned activities on his historic visit to Cuba. He asked his Cuban hosts to “please indulge me” as he devoted a total of six sentences to condemning “these outrageous attacks against innocent people.”
That is reminiscent of Obama’s tepid reaction to the Paris attacks, which caused him to try several more times to appear more empathetic. The Paris massacre, followed by the mass killing in San Bernardino, also transformed the campaign and, in my view, helped Trump. But given the media’s notoriously short attention span, coverage of those two calamities eventually faded as the campaign turned into a festival of insults.
Ted Cruz and John Kasich also responded aggressively to the Belgian bloodbath yesterday, but the twin “Today” invitations to the front-runners tells you something about how the media view the race.
While Clinton can draw on her diplomatic experience in talking about terror, she is to some degree hamstrung by the need not to break openly with the president she served.
The violence in Brussels took place hours after Trump, Clinton, Cruz and Kasich—but not Bernie Sanders—addressed AIPAC and spoke of the U.S. role in protecting Israel. The attack on a NATO ally also happened the day after Trump told the Washington Post that the U.S. should diminish its role in NATO and is bearing too much of the financial burden—something we’re likely to hear more about in the coming days.
Indeed, Clinton later told MSNBC that some candidates don't understand the importance of NATO.
The media have been obsessed lately with delegate math and the skirmishes that have broken out at Trump rallies. Unfortunately, it took far more damaging violence to remind everyone of the stakes in this campaign.
Howard Kurtz is a Fox News analyst and the host of "MediaBuzz" (Sundays 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. ET). He is the author of five books and is based in Washington. Follow him at @HowardKurtz. Click here for more information on Howard Kurtz.

Veterans Benefits Administration chief suspended in relocation scam

WASHINGTON –  The Department of Veterans Affairs is suspending the head of the Veterans Benefits Administration for allowing two lower-ranking officials to manipulate the agency's hiring system for their own gain.
Deputy VA Secretary Sloan Gibson says acting VBA chief Danny Pummill will be suspended without pay for 15 days for his role in a relocation scam that has roiled the agency for months.
Pummill failed to exercise proper oversight as Kimberly Graves and Diana Rubens forced lower-ranking managers to accept job transfers and then stepped into the vacant positions themselves, keeping their senior-level pay while reducing their responsibilities, Gibson said Tuesday.
Pummill is one of VA's five highest-ranking officials and leads VBA's employees across 56 regional offices nationwide that provide compensation and pension benefits, life insurance, home loans and other services to millions of veterans.
Under VA rules, Pummill can appeal his suspension to an independent arbiter.
Pummill was the VBA's deputy chief when Rubens and Graves implemented the job relocations, which put both of them closer to their families. Pummill replaced former VBA chief Allison Hickey, who retired as allegations against Rubens and Graves were made public.
Rubens earns $181,497 as director of the VBA's Philadelphia regional office, while Graves receives $173,949 as head of the St. Paul, Minnesota, benefits office.
Graves and Rubens were reprimanded Tuesday and had their pay cut by 10 percent. The two women were reinstated to their positions last month after administrative judges overturned their demotions.
The judges based their rulings, in part, on the fact that more senior officials such as Pummill had not been disciplined in the case. In a related action, the VA said it has reprimanded Beth McCoy, director of field operations for the VBA. Gibson said McCoy did not exercise proper judgment in taking over for Rubens as heads of field operations.
Gibson said the disciplinary actions were in the best interests of veterans and taxpayers. "Ultimately, that is what these decisions are about: getting back to the work of serving America's veterans," he said.
Rep. Jeff Miller, R-Fla., chairman of the House Veterans Affairs Committee, called the actions "a weak slap on the wrist."
Accountability at the VA "is almost non-existent," Miller said. "One thing is clear: this dysfunctional status quo will never change until we eliminate arcane civil service rules that put the job security of VA bureaucrats ahead of the veterans they are charged with serving."

Cruz, not Kasich, snags mainstream GOP endorsements

Top GOP "establishment" figures keep lining up behind self-described “outsider” Ted Cruz in what appears to be a concerted bid to keep front-runner Donald Trump from running away with the nomination -- yet raising the question of whether they've ruled out John Kasich entirely.
Jeb Bush’s Wednesday endorsement of the Texas senator is the latest backing that would have been almost unthinkable even six months ago.
Bush’s thumbs-up for the firebrand conservative follows similar support from 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney and, perhaps even more surprising, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham -- who once remarked that if someone shot Cruz in the Senate, no senator would convict the shooter.
The endorsements have all been carefully tailored to show they are uniting behind Cruz as the best bet to thwart Trump.
“For the sake of our party and country, we must move to overcome the divisiveness and vulgarity Donald Trump has brought into the political arena, or we will certainly lose our chance to defeat the Democratic nominee and reverse President Obama’s failed policies,” Bush said in a statement Wednesday.
“The only path that remains to nominate a Republican rather than Mr. Trump is to have an open convention,” said Romney in backing Cruz last week. “At this stage, the only way we can reach an open convention is for Senator Cruz to be successful in as many of the remaining nominating elections as possible.”

2016 Election Headquarters

The latest headlines on the 2016 elections from the biggest name in politics. See Latest Coverage →

While it seems apparent that the endorsements are more anti-Trump than pro-Cruz, it is notable that the so-called establishment appears to be ignoring the more moderate Ohio Gov. Kasich.
The most obvious reason for this is the sheer delegate count. Behind Trump’s 739 delegates, Cruz has 465 and Kasich has 143. While Cruz’s path is slim to an outright majority, Kasich has no path to clinching the nomination without a contested convention in Cleveland in July.

Delegates Awarded to Current Republican Candidates | InsideGov

Cruz's performance to date, as Romney suggests, also could make him the best vehicle for drawing delegates away from Trump in the remaining contests and holding him under the 1,237 delegate threshold to clinch the nomination.
GOP strategist Ron Bonjean says the logic makes sense.
“Establishment Republicans are now gravitating towards Cruz because of the simple delegate math that shows there is absolutely no way Kasich can win unless there is a brokered convention,” he told FoxNews.com.
Yet, Bonjean notes that should a contested convention arise, things could change, and these same Republicans might move to back Kasich.
“Of course, this support for Cruz could change the very minute there is a brokered convention to Kasich or someone else," Bonjean said.
Team Kasich has a powerful argument in its pocket.
While Kasich is significantly behind Cruz in terms of delegates, his head-to-head polling numbers against likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton blow Cruz’s out of the water. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday gives Kasich an eight-point lead against Clinton in a general election matchup, while finding Trump loses to Clinton by six and Cruz by three.
The Kasich camp is hammering this point, perhaps hoping those siding with Cruz now might indeed reconsider at a contested convention.
In a campaign memo released Wednesday, chief strategist John Weaver cited a number of polls showing Kasich to be the best bet against Clinton, and called him the key to stopping Trump.
“Moving forward, Gov. Kasich is the key to our party’s hope of stopping Donald Trump and the potential disastrous consequences of his nomination,” Weaver wrote. “Assertions to the contrary are misleading. They are disingenuous attempts to mislead Republicans and hand the nomination to Donald Trump.”
Weaver went on to write that Kasich is the best candidate to have for candidates down the ballot, and to unite the party.
That argument appears to have been ineffective with many senior Republicans. Romney, in his statement endorsing Cruz, recognized how he has campaigned with Kasich, but suggested backing Kasich is a non-starter.
“I like Governor John Kasich. I have campaigned with him. He has a solid record as governor. I would have voted for him in Ohio. But a vote for Governor Kasich in future contests makes it extremely likely that Trumpism would prevail,” Romney said.
Kasich’s campaign memo seems to indicate something similar. Perhaps recognizing that Kasich’s best path to the nomination lies in a contested convention, Weaver calls Kasich “the best choice at the Convention.”
Trump, meanwhile, is keeping busy taunting those Republicans suddenly endorsing Cruz. He tweeted Wednesday:

Fox News Poll: Cruz, Kasich ahead of Clinton in 2016 hypothetical matchups

Republicans are eager to win back the White House in 2016.  A new Fox News national poll finds both John Kasich and Ted Cruz ahead of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in hypothetical matchups, while Donald Trump trails her.
Kasich does best against Clinton.  He has a double-digit advantage and also comes in above the 50 percent mark:  51 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.
Cruz is preferred over Clinton by three percentage points (47-44 percent).
Clinton tops GOP front-runner Donald Trump by 11 points (49-38 percent).
CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS
The Ohio governor’s advantage comes mostly from independents; they support him over Clinton by 36 points.  Plus, Kasich steals the largest number of Democrats (17 percent).

2016 Election Headquarters

The latest headlines on the 2016 elections from the biggest name in politics. See Latest Coverage →

Kasich and Cruz also outperform Trump against Bernie Sanders. The Democrat leads Trump by 14 points -- and tops Cruz by a narrower four-point margin.  Kasich has a one-point edge over Sanders (44-43 percent).
Slightly more voters would be satisfied if the presidential race is ultimately a Clinton-Cruz matchup (72 percent satisfied with their candidate choices) than if it ends up being Clinton and Trump (67 percent satisfied).
If it is Clinton-Trump in November, more than four in 10 Cruz supporters say they would seriously consider voting for a third party candidate (34 percent) or just stay home (10 percent).  (There are too few Kasich supporters to facilitate a comparable breakout.)
Overall, only 16 percent of voters would feel “enthusiastic” if Clinton were to become the next president.  Even so, that’s enough for a “win” on this measure.  Fourteen percent would feel “enthusiastic” about a Sanders win, and 13 percent each about a Cruz or Trump win.
Almost half of all voters would feel “scared” if Trump (49 percent) were to win the White House, while 33 percent say the same about Clinton.  Trump has the largest number of Republicans saying they would feel scared if he wins (25 percent), while Kasich has the smallest (7 percent).
More Republicans would feel “enthusiastic” or “pleased” with a Cruz win (57 percent), than with a Kasich (48 percent) or Trump (51 percent) victory.
By comparison, 72 percent of Democrats would feel “enthusiastic” or “pleased” if Clinton won.  And Sanders is close behind at 61 percent.
Kasich is the only candidate who receives more positive reactions (enthusiastic/pleased) to him winning than negative ones (displeased/scared).  In addition, more voters -- some 37 percent -- would feel “neutral” about him becoming president than say the same of any other candidate.
When it comes to picking justices for the U.S. Supreme Court, majorities of Americans feel confident with Kasich (62 percent), Cruz (55 percent), and Sanders (54 percent).  Half feel confident about Clinton (50 percent) making those decisions, and fewer than 4 in 10 say the same about Trump (38 percent).

Honest & Trustworthy
The two current front-runners are also battling for the worst honesty ratings:  64 percent of voters say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, while 65 percent feel that way about Trump.
Some 34 percent say Clinton is honest (a new low) and 64 percent say she’s not (a new high) -- for a net negative honesty rating of 30 points.  Trump’s net rating is about the same (-32 points).
Cruz (+2 points), Kasich (+38 points), and Sanders (+39 points) each get positive honesty scores.
Sanders (+71 points) dwarfs Clinton (+39 points) on net honesty among self-identified Democrats.
Among self-identified Republicans, each of the GOP candidates has a net positive honesty score, yet there is significant range in the scores: Kasich (+58 points), Cruz (+40 points), and Trump (+14 points).

Pollpourri
When the two leading major party candidates are distrusted by a majority of voters, it’s no wonder 82 percent of voters say they are nervous about American politics, while 11 percent are feeling confident.
Nearly three times as many are confident about the economy today (30 percent).
To be sure, people still have economic jitters:  61 percent are nervous about the economy, up a bit from 55 percent a year ago (March 2015).  Nervousness hit a high of 70 percent in 2010.
Republicans are about twice as likely as Democrats to feel nervous about the economy, however roughly 8 in 10 Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike are worried about American politics.
Some 49 percent of Democrats are confident about the economy, down from 61 percent last year.
Most Republicans continue to feel uneasy:  81 percent now compared to 75 percent in 2015.
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,016 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from March 20-22, 2016. The full sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Second suspect reportedly sought in Brussels subway bombing

Authorities are searching for a second possible suspect in Tuesday morning's suicide bombing of a subway in central Brussels, Belgian and French media reported Thursday.
The French newspaper Le Monde and the Belgian public broadcaster RBTF reported that a man carrying a large bag was seen on CCTV walking with Khalid El Bakraoui, whom authorities believe blew himself up on a train at the Maelbeek station, killing at least 20 people.
It was not immediately clear whether the unidentified man survived the blast. Neither media outlet published the CCTV images in their initial reports and Belgian prosecutors had no immediate comment.
The report came as Paris terror suspect Salah Abdeslam was due to appear in court to face magistrates after his arrest last week in the same Brussels neighborhood where he grew up. France is seeking his extradition to face potential terrorism charges for his involvement in the Nov. 13 attacks that killed 130 people in Paris. A judge is to decide whether Abdeslam should be held in custody another month.
ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks in Brussels and Paris, which have laid bare European security failings and prompted calls for better intelligence cooperation.
Belgian police were already searching for a man seen at Brussels Zaventem airport with two other suicide bombers, identified as Ibrahim El Bakraoui, Khalid's older brother, and Najim Laachraoui, who was already suspected of constructing the bombs used in the Paris attacks.
RTBF also reported Thursday that a message found on Ibrahim El Bakraoui's computer Tuesday night does not name Abdeslam, as had previously been suspected.
According to the broadcaster, El Bakraoui referenced Mohammed Bakkali, who was arrested last November following the Paris attacks and is suspected of renting out two hideouts to the ISIS cell in Belgium. He is also accused of spying on a top Belgian nuclear official.
"I don't know what to do, I'm in a hurry, people are looking for me everywhere," chief prosecutor Frederic Van Leeuw quoted the message as saying. "If I give myself up I'll end up in a cell next to him."
The message points to a rising sense of panic among the three suicide bombers.
Police were drawn to the brothers' apartment Tuesday night thanks to a tip from a taxi driver who had unwittingly delivered them to the airport, Van Leeuw said. Inside the northeast Brussels residence they found an apparent bomb-making factory, including 33 pounds of homemade explosives and nails for use as shrapnel.
Neighbors told The Associated Press they had no idea of the brothers' activities and barely saw them until the taxi collected them and their visibly heavy bags Tuesday morning.
One neighbor, who was willing to give only his first name of Erdine, said he was about to drive his son to school when he saw the two men carrying their bags out of the building.
"The taxi driver tried to get the luggage. And the other guy reached for it like he was saying: No, I'll take it," the neighbor said.