Presumptuous Politics

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Trump touts poll giving him edge over Clinton; Cruz issues dire warning

Donald Trump moved Monday to blunt the narrative that he would lose a general election to Hillary Clinton if he’s the Republican nominee, touting a new poll that showed him narrowly edging the Democratic presidential front-runner in a hypothetical match-up.
The Rasmussen Reports survey buoyed Trump’s campaign as he seeks to add to his hot streak on Tuesday in Indiana’s primary – a contest rival Ted Cruz is fighting hard to win.
Cruz has escalated his rhetoric as he courts Hoosier voters, even saying Sunday that Americans are “praying” for them. He warned against giving “in to evil.”
Asked Monday what he meant by that, the Texas senator said, “We are not a bitter, angry, petty, bigoted people. That is not America.” Spokesman Ron Nehring also invoked religious imagery, telling Fox News a Trump nomination would lead to a “wipeout of biblical proportions” for the GOP in November.
But the Rasmussen poll released Monday – even if it’s a flash-in-the-pan outlier – for the time being helps Trump counter persistent claims by Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and other detractors that he would surely lose to Clinton in November.
The poll showed Trump edging Clinton 41-39 percent in a hypothetical match-up, the first time he’s led their polling since last October. There is an asterisk in that finding: If voters are given the option of staying home, another recent Rasmussen survey showed Clinton and Trump tied.
Still, it was enough for Trump to herald the results on Twitter.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted April 27-28, and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
In Indiana itself, Trump continues to enjoy a roughly 9-point lead over Cruz, according to the RealClearPolitics average. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has maintained a nearly 7-point average lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Though Clinton, too, has been on a winning streak and is far closer to clinching the nomination than Trump, Sanders has – like Cruz – insisted he plans to keep on fighting.
“We intend to fight for every vote and every delegate remaining,” Sanders said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Sunday.
On Monday, Cruz similarly declared: "I am in for the distance, as long as we have a viable path to victory. I am competing until the end.”
Asked whether he still has a path to victory even if he loses on Tuesday, Cruz said: “Absolutely.”
Trump, to the contrary, said if he wins Tuesday, “it’s over.”
Fifty-seven delegates are at stake Tuesday in the Indiana GOP primary; 83 are at stake for the Democrats.
The pressure has only mounted on Cruz to do well in Indiana, amid reports that so-called “unbound” delegates in states like North Dakota who had been aligned with Cruz are growing uneasy amid Trump’s winning streak – and could consider flipping to Trump on the first ballot in Cleveland.
Nehring vowed Monday that Trump “will not get a majority on the first ballot.”

Cruz faces hard fight against Trump surge in Indiana, as front-runner says race is 'over' with win

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz could see his last opportunity to stop rival Donald Trump from clinching the Republican nomination go begging Tuesday if Indiana voters back the real estate mogul by a large margin.
Cruz has spent the past week camped out in Indiana, securing the support of Gov. Mike Pence and announcing retired technology executive Carly Fiorina as his running mate. Yet the Associated Press reported early Tuesday that his aides were prepared Tuesday for Cruz to fall short, though the senator vowed to stay in the race, regardless of the results.
"I am in for the distance, as long as we have a viable path to victory," Cruz told reporters on Monday during a campaign stop.
Trump devoted more time to campaigning in Indiana than he has to most other states, underscoring his eagerness to put his Republican rival away and shift his attention toward Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. While Trump cannot clinch the nomination with a big win in Indiana, his path would get easier and he would have more room for error in the campaign's final contests.
"Indiana is very important, because if I win that's the end of it. It would be over," Trump said during a lunch stop Monday in Indianapolis.
Republican leaders spent months dismissing Trump as little more than an entertainer who would fade once voting started. But Republican primary voters have stuck with the billionaire businessman, handing him victories in every region of the country, including a string of six straight wins on the East Coast.
Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will also face off in Indiana's Democratic primary on Tuesday, though the stakes are lower than in the Republican race. Clinton holds a commanding lead over Sanders. securing 91 percent of the delegates she needs to win the nomination. That means she can still win the nomination even if she loses every remaining contest.
Sanders has conceded that he faces a difficult path to overtake Clinton, one that hinges on convincing superdelegates to back him over the former secretary of state. Superdelegates are Democratic Party insiders who can support the candidate of their choice, regardless of how their states vote. And they favor Clinton by a nearly 18-1 margin.
Neither Clinton nor Sanders planned to spend Tuesday in Indiana. Sanders was making stops in Kentucky, which holds a primary in mid-May, while Clinton moved on to Ohio, a key general election battleground.
Clinton's team has started deploying staff to states that will be crucial in November and is also raising money for the fall campaign. Even as Trump hires more staff to round out his slim team, he already lags far behind Clinton in general election preparations.
A showdown between Clinton and Trump would pit one of Democrats' most popular and highly-regarded figures against a first-time political candidate who is deeply divisive within his own party. Cruz and other Republicans have argued that Trump would be roundly defeated in the general election, denying their party the White House for a third straight term.
But Trump is the only Republican left in the race who can secure the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination through regular primary voting. Cruz -- as well as Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who trails significantly in the delegate count -- must try to block Trump in Indiana and the handful of other remaining states to push the race toward a contested convention.
In an abrupt strategy shift, Cruz and Kasich announced an alliance of sorts in Indiana. The Ohio governor agreed to stop spending money in Indiana to give Cruz a chance to compete head-to-head with Trump. Cruz has pledged to do the same for Kasich in Oregon and New Mexico, which vote in the coming weeks.
But that strategy, which appeared to unravel even as it was announced, may have backfired. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll found that nearly 6 in 10 Indiana primary voters disapproved of the Cruz-Kasich alliance.
"After they made the alliance, their numbers tanked," Trump said Monday. "That's what happens when politicians make deals."

Clinton confronted by laid-off coal worker at West Virginia campaign stop

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was confronted Monday at a campaign stop in West Virginia by a laid-off coal worker over previous comments she made that “we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.”
Clinton was attending a panel discussion with residents and Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in Williamson, W. Va. when she was asked a question by Bo Copley, who told her he was a laid off worker in the coal industry.
“I just want to know how you can say you’re going to put a lot of coal miners out of, out of jobs, and then come in here and tell us how you’re going to be our friend, because those people out there don’t see you as a friend,” Copley said, sometimes breaking into tears, as the chants of the protesters were heard outside.
Clinton however said her comments in March were a “misstatement,” and that she has been talking about helping out coal country “for a very long time.”
“What I was saying is that the way things are going now, we will continue to lose jobs,” Clinton said Monday. “That’s what I meant to say, and I think that that seems to be supported by the facts. I didn’t mean that we were going to do it, what I said was, that is going to happen unless we take action to try to and help and prevent it.”
Clinton released a $30 billion plan last fall aimed at aiding communities dependent on coal production and she's promised that her husband would focus on revitalizing the region.
Manchin came to Clinton’s defense on Monday.
“If I thought that was in her heart, if I thought she wanted to eliminate one job in West Virginia I wouldn’t be sitting here,” he said. “I think Hillary knows that. She wouldn’t be here if she felt that way. There is no way you could come into this type of a setting and the way that people are hurting so bad unless you want to help them.”
Copley however told Manchin he didn’t believe that his endorsement of Clinton was a good move.
“If I can be candid, I think still supporting her hurts you, it does, because it’s not a good outlook here,” he said.
"I can't take it back, and I certainly can't get people who, for political reasons or personal reasons, very painful reasons, are upset with me," Clinton said. "I want you to know I'm going to do whatever I can to help no matter what happens politically."
She added, "Whether or not West Virginia supports me, I'm going to support you."
Copley said he plans to vote in the Republican primary May 10.
The Republican National Committee responded Monday to the Clinton calling her earlier comments a “misstatement.”
“If Hillary Clinton really stood with coal country she’d be calling on the Obama EPA to stop taking a wrecking ball to their way of life. Given her steadfast support for Obama’s War on Coal, her promise to ‘put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business’ may have been one of the few honest moments she’s had this entire campaign,” said RNC spokesman Michael Short.
Clinton is in the midst of a two-day campaign swing through Appalachia ahead of voting in that region later this month.

Monday, May 2, 2016

Cruz-Fiorina Cartoon

Fox News Poll: Trump tops Cruz by eight points in Indiana

Will Indiana give Donald Trump a big victory like its neighbors Michigan and Illinois? Or will it boost Ted Cruz with a Wisconsin-style double-digit win?
Hoosiers may just split the difference, according to a new Fox News Poll.
Trump is ahead of Cruz by an eight-point margin among Indiana likely Republican primary voters: 41-33 percent. That’s at the edge of the poll’s plus or minus four point margin of sampling error. John Kasich comes in third with 16 percent.
CLICK TO READ THE POLL RESULTS
Men are the key to Trump’s advantage. He receives 44 percent to Cruz’s 33 percent, while Kasich takes 13 percent.
Among women, Trump ekes out a three-point edge (36-33 percent), while 20 percent back Kasich.
Cruz is preferred over Trump among self-described “very” conservative GOP primary voters (46-35 percent).
The vote among white evangelical Christians splits: 41 percent Cruz vs. 39 percent Trump. This stands in sharp contrast to nearby Wisconsin, where the Fox News exit poll showed Cruz winning this group by a wide 22-point margin (55-33 percent).
GOP voters without a college degree go heavily for Trump (+16 points), while college grads back Cruz by a narrow one-point margin.
"There hasn't been much polling in Indiana, and Trump's showing may be a surprise to some," says Daron Shaw, Republican pollster who works on the Fox News Poll with Democratic Pollster Chris Anderson.
"But the political and demographic make-up of Indiana holds promise for both Cruz and Trump, and that shows in the data."
Kasich (27 percent) and Cruz (24 percent) come out on top when GOP primary voters are asked their second-choice candidate. When first- and second-choice preferences are combined, it’s a squeaker: 58 percent Trump and 57 percent Cruz.
And without Kasich in the race, it’s 44 percent Trump vs. 42 percent Cruz.
The Indiana electorate is still in flux: one in four says they could change their mind (25 percent).
Kasich (38 percent) and Cruz supporters (29 percent) are more likely than Trump supporters (17 percent) to say they could end up backing a different candidate.
Among those backing Trump, 81 percent feel certain they will vote for him, while 70 percent of Cruz supporters and 59 percent of Kasich supporters say the same.
If it’s Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump in the fall, 42 percent of those backing Cruz say they would vote for a third party candidate or not at all. By comparison, if it’s Cruz against Clinton, 48 percent of Trump supporters would vote third party or stay home.
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The telephone poll (landline and cellphone) was conducted April 18-21, 2016, with live interviewers among a random sample of 1,205 Indiana voters selected from a statewide voter file (plus or minus 2.5 percentage points). Results for the 602 likely Republican primary voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Fox News town hall: Trump blasts Cruz-Fiorina ticket roll-out as ‘waste of time’

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, at a Fox News-hosted town hall in Indianapolis, on Wednesday blasted rival Ted Cruz’s decision to announce a running mate even though he’s losing the nomination race – calling it a “waste of time.”
Shortly afterward, though, Cruz VP pick Carly Fiorina fired back, saying the race isn't over yet and "close doesn't count."
The back-and-forth capped an unusual day on the campaign trail, even as the nomination seems within Trump's grasp. The billionaire businessman responded to Cruz’s campaign curveball, while also elaborating on a foreign policy speech he delivered earlier in the day, at the forum hosted by Greta Van Susteren.
“I think it’s really a waste of time, honestly,” Trump said of Cruz’s decision to name former presidential candidate and ex-HP CEO Fiorina as his VP pick. Of the race, Trump said, “It should be over.”
Cruz earlier acknowledged it was “unusual” to name a VP choice so early, but defended the decision. He claimed “nobody is getting to 1,237 delegates,” the number needed to clinch the nomination, and voters should “know what [they] will get.”
After Trump swept five states across the Northeast on Tuesday, the three remaining GOP candidates are looking next to Indiana’s primary on May 3 as a pivotal point in the race – one that can show whether Trump turns his winning streak into irreversible momentum, or whether Cruz and John Kasich still have a shot at preventing him from clinching the nomination before July.
But Trump cast Cruz’s ticket roll-out Wednesday as a bid to distract from bad headlines, calling it “awfully early” for such an announcement.
“You have to first get the nomination. … He has zero chance,” he said.
Trump declined to go into detail about his own potential running mate choices. “I have a lot of great people. I just don’t like to talk about it right now,” he said.
In an interview Wednesday night on "The Kelly File" with Fox News' Megyn Kelly, Fiorina responded to Trump's comments over Cruz making her his VP pick.
"Donald Trump hasn't won this nomination yet, despite so many people in the media just wishing it would all be over," she said.
"This isn't over until someone reaches 1,237 (delegates) ... and no, close doesn't count," she added.
Fiorina told Kelly that parts of the Republican Party are uniting behind Cruz, with him receiving endorsements from former presidential candidates Gov. Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, in addition to Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.
“A majority of Republican voters don’t want Donald Trump to be their nominee," Fiorina said Wednesday.
She also responded to a question by Kelly over her criticism of Cruz earlier in the presidential campaign.
"In the heat of a presidential campaign, like in a basketball game, you make some fouls," she said.
Trump spoke just hours after delivering what was billed as a major foreign policy address in Washington. In the speech, Trump called for a drastic shake-up in America’s foreign policy – including “getting out of the nation-building business” and demanding NATO allies pay their “fair share” or be left to “defend themselves.”
At the Fox News town hall, Trump questioned “at what point are we the guardian of the world,” saying countries have to protect themselves “or you have to pay us properly.”
“We have to be good to our allies, but they have to remember that we’re good, and they have to take care of us,” Trump said.
He also discussed his goals for bringing jobs back to America, and – when asked about Bernie Sanders’ plans for free college tuition – said he would like to look “seriously” at bringing down college costs. He said he would, if elected, work out a “deal” to address that, potentially to include giving students more time to pay back their debt.
Trump was joined onstage Wednesday by legendary Indiana University basketball coach Bobby Knight, now a Trump supporter, who called the candidate “far and away the best person to lead America back to where we all want to be.”
Trump sought to demonstrate his foreign policy chops Wednesday as he tries to present a more presidential image – while increasingly turning his attention on the campaign trail to a general election battle he presumes will involve him and Hillary Clinton.
The billionaire businessman declared himself the “presumptive nominee” Tuesday night, after winning primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania and Maryland. He hasn’t shelved the trash talk and provocative language on the campaign trail, not yet anyway – repeatedly accusing Clinton of playing the “woman card” and mocking remaining GOP rivals Cruz and Kasich.

Cruz says still 'doing everything' to win Indiana, as new poll shows Trump leading by double digits

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz admits he’s putting all his eggs into Indiana, but a new poll suggests a win Tuesday in the Hoosier State’s Republican presidential primary against front-runner Donald Trump may be too high a mountain to climb.
“I'm barnstorming the state,” Cruz said on ABC's "This Week." “I'm in a bus with my family, doing everything we can to earn the votes of the men and the women in this state. We are competing hard here. I hope we do well here.”
He made the comments the same day as a new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll showing Trump leading him by 15 percentage points in Indiana, 49-to-34 percent.
Cruz suggested last week that Indiana will decide the GOP presidential contest among him, Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Amid the latest polls, Cruz still stopped short Sunday of saying he must win Indiana to stay in the race after suggesting last week that it was make-or-break.
“It gives me great comfort that this primary is going to be decided by the Midwestern common sense of the Hoosier State,” Cruz told Fox News on Friday, though he did not say definitively whether he would drop out if he loses Indiana.
To be sure, much is at stake before Cruz beyond the 57 delegates up for grabs Tuesday.
He has so far won 10 state contests, but nothing since the Wisconsin primary in early April, while Trump has since won convincingly in New York and in the five Northeast states that held primaries last week.
Last week, Cruz tried to regain some momentum by naming former primary rival Carly Fiorina as his running mate and announcing an endorsement by Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. And his campaign has worked out a deal in which the Kasich campaign will allow Cruz to try to beat Trump one-on-one in Indiana.
Cruz also attacked Trump, saying he talks about stopping the Carrier company from leaving for Mexico but has no plan.
“He has no economic policy to bring back those jobs,” said Cruz, who has increasingly argued that Trump, a billionaire businessman, is as much a Washington insider as Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, a former first lady and secretary of state.

CIA director says secret 9/11 report pages full of hearsay, inaccurate info

CIA Director John Brennan said Sunday that 28 classified pages of a bipartisan commission's report on the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks contains "uncorroborated, unvetted information" that some could seize upon to claim Saudi Arabian involvement in the attacks.
Brennan, speaking on NBC's "Meet The Press," said such claims would be "very, very inaccurate."
The Obama administration may soon release at least part of the secret chapter, which some believe shows a Saudi connection to the Al Qaeda attacks that killed nearly 3,000 people at the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and Shanksville, Pa.
A groundswell to declassify the documents began last month, when former Florida Sen. Bob Graham told CBS' "60 Minutes" he believed the 19 hijackers "substantially" received support from officials in Saudi Arabia's government and prominent members of society.
"There are a lot of rocks out there that have been purposefully tamped down, that if were they turned over, would give us a more expansive view of the Saudi role," Graham said at the time.
The 28 pages were withheld from the 838-page report on the orders of then-President George W. Bush, who said the release could divulge intelligence sources and methods. In mid-April, the White House told Graham that it would decide whether to declassify the material within 60 days.
Brennan said Sunday that the pages were classified because "of concerns about sensitive methods, investigative actions, and the investigation of 9/11 was still underway in 2002."
Brennan added that he believed the pages contain "a combination of things that are accurate and inaccurate." He said the 9/11 Commission followed up on the preliminary information in the 28 pages and made "a very clear judgment" there was no evidence indicating "the Saudi government as an institution or Saudi officials individually" financially backed Al Qaeda."
Fifteen of the 19 hijackers were citizens of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government says it has been "wrongfully and morbidly accused of complicity" in the attacks, is fighting extremists and working to clamp down on their funding channels. Still, the Saudis have long said that they would welcome declassification of the 28 pages because it would "allow us to respond to any allegations in a clear and credible manner."
Brennan's comments came as lawmakers are considering a bill that would permit terrorism victims to sue foreign states that helped fund or otherwise support attacks in the U.S. The legislation is opposed by the Obama administration and the Saudi government has threatened to sell off hundreds of billions of dollars in American assets if it passes.