The media appear to be declaring the Republican convention to be a failure even before it gets under way.
The overwhelming narrative, now hardening into
concrete, is that so many important GOP honchos are blowing it off, and
the party is so seriously shattered over Donald Trump, that the
Cleveland gathering is destined to be a flop.
I guess I’m old-fashioned and would like to see what happens while I’m actually in Cleveland.
Now there’s no question that most conventions are
coronations and this will be far different. And there’s no dispute that
there are danger signs that must be covered by the press.
Trump still hasn’t released a list of convention
speakers, for instance, and it’s surreal that the former Republican
presidents, most of the previous nominees and a number of his campaign
rivals are skipping the proceedings.
But let’s not forget: Trump ran against the party
establishment. He’s the billionaire outsider, the political newcomer who
did what none of the insiders thought was remotely possible. He
frequently attacked the party poohbahs and has broken with GOP orthodoxy
on several major issues.
Of course he’s not going to be embraced in some kind of lovefest.
But media narratives have a way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecy. A
Politico piece yesterday was headlined “GOP Operatives Dread Trump Convention”:
“Many GOP regulars are skipping Cleveland entirely.
(‘I would rather attend the public hanging of a good friend,’ says Will
Ritter, an up-and-coming Republican digital strategist who worked on the
three previous conventions.) And among those who are making the trek,
there’s an overwhelming sense it won’t be fun at all. At a time when
many Republicans are deeply dissatisfied with their nominee, pessimistic
about their prospects for victory in the fall and alarmed about the
direction of their party, there’s a reluctance about attending the
convention more typically reserved for going to the DMV, being summoned
for jury duty or undergoing a root canal.”
The RNC is worse than the DMV???
“For most, the convention’s lack of appeal boils down
to one thing: Trump. The New York businessman has shunned the
establishment class, reaching out to few of the operatives who worked
for his primary rivals and making little effort to bring them on to his
team. As a result, many of the Republican ad makers, pollsters, and
fundraisers who populate Washington have little desire to witness his
expected nomination.”
My reaction: Who cares what the insiders think?
Yes, it would have been nice for Trump to unify the
party and have everyone singing kumbaya. But that was never going to
happen. Instead, he’s got Jeb Bush trashing his campaign in an hourlong
special on MSNBC.
Given the wall-to-wall cable coverage of conventions,
the chorus of punditry will be important. But ordinary folks watch
these things very differently than journalists.
If Trump gives a great speech, and if his running mate gives a good speech, that’s half the battle.
If the lineup is entertaining, that’s a big help, too.
The couch-watchers aren’t going to sit around and
say, gee, why isn’t Marco Rubio there, or I really wish John Kasich was
the keynote speaker.
And here’s the wild card: The audience will probably
watch in pretty large numbers. For one thing, there will be more dissent
and drama in Cleveland than at most conventions (and less in Philly
after Hillary and Bernie hugged it out yesterday).
But also, the star of the show is Trump, the same guy
who boosts the ratings of the programs he appears on, the same guy who
helped Fox draw 24 million viewers in the first presidential debate.
The convention may or may not go well, but the
country may reach a different verdict than the many pundits who have
soured on it in advance.
Howard Kurtz is a Fox News analyst and the host of "MediaBuzz" (Sundays 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. ET). He is the author of five books and is based in Washington. Follow him at @HowardKurtz. Click here for more information on Howard Kurtz.