House Speaker Paul Ryan appears likely to win a 10th term ahead of
his primary challenge Tuesday, but an endorsement earlier this week from
GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump is causing its share of political
headwinds for the Wisconsin congressman and other Republicans seeking
reelection.
Trump on Friday night endorsed the House leader,
along with incumbent GOP Sens. Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire, and John
McCain, Arizona, in an apparent effort to create party unity with the
general election less than 100 days away.
However, the endorsement is not without some peril
for Ryan, despite leading primary rival and conservative businessman
Paul Nehlen by as much as 66 percent points, according to poll released
this week by the Remington Research Group.
The Wisconsin GOP primary is Tuesday.
Trump is not particularly popular among Wisconsin
voters, considering they decisively backed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the
state’s early-April primary, arguably Trump’s biggest loss of the
season.
And weeks earlier, Trump bashed popular Wisconsin GOP
Gov. Scott Walker, a Cruz supporter, arguing Walker’s record on jobs
and the economy was overrated.
Nehlen, in a narrowly crafted announcement Friday,
praised Trump for endorsing Ryan, saying the decision was “appropriate”
and a sign of “true leadership.”
However, he also argued Trump’s delay in endorsing
Ryan, like Ryan did earlier with Trump, “is a clear signal to Wisconsin
voters that Ryan is not his preferred candidate in this race.”
Still, most political observers think Ryan will retain his seat.
“I don’t think it will be a problem for Ryan,”
Republican strategist Rob Carter said Saturday. “People in his district
know him and see him as a straight shooter.”
However, he argued the bigger issue is Trump’s decision to withhold the endorsement.
“The real story is the divisiveness of the Trump campaign and the selfishness of the candidate himself,” Carter said.
The Nehlen campaign -- which is hitting Ryan on his
qualified support of the Obama administration’s international trade deal
known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership -- thinks its candidate can
still pull off an upset.
Campaign official Noel Fritsch on Saturday called the
Remington poll a “farce” and argued that 83 percent of the GOP
electorate voted for so-called “outsider” candidates in the 2016 party
primaries.
“It’s quite obvious that establishment Republicans
are in trouble,” said Fritsch, who argues that campaign contributions
are coming in from across the country. “This just steels folks’ resolve
to get out and vote.”
To be sure, several Republican senators in tough
reelection bid, particularly in Democrat-leaning states, have struggled
with the Trump endorsement.
Ayotte has said she will vote for Trump but has yet
to officially endorse him. And Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey says he’s
backing Trump, despite some political differences and Trump being
neither his first nor second choice as the party’s presidential nominee.
Despite endorsing Ryan, Trump on Monday used his
Twitter feed to acknowledge support from Nehlen, who is driving around
Wisconsin in a yellow dump truck with a sign that reads “Dump Paul
Ryan.”
A Ryan aide said Saturday that the speaker
"appreciates" Trump's endorsement and that Ryan will "continue to focus
on earning the endorsement of the voters in southern Wisconsin."
Ryan supporters also argued that several polls show Ryan with a double-digit lead.
Those who foresee a potential upset point to Tea
Party-backed, first-time candidate Dave Brat’s 2004 primary upset of
House Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor, who lost in large part because
voters thought he was more focused on national politics than district
concerns.
“This is not and should not be considered the 'Eric
Cantor' seat of 2016. Above all else, Speaker Ryan has been a consistent
and effective advocate for his constituents for years. And I am sure he
will continue to do so well into the future," Republican strategist
Rob Burgess said Saturday.