The year 1994 was a pivotal, landslide year for Republicans.
The GOP seized control of the Senate from Democrats
for the first time in eight years. But the big story was the historic
win by Republicans in the House. Republicans netted a staggering 54
seats, flipping the House to their control for the first time since
1952.
Several things worked in the GOP’s favor.
Republicans successfully portrayed President Bill
Clinton as a “tax and spend” liberal and propounded the so-called
“Contract with America” as their electoral promise.
They excoriated the Clinton over the Whitewater land
deal in Arkansas and his effort (alongside that of spouse Hillary
Clinton) to move health care reform legislation through Congress. Health
care reform died miserably, never even hitting the floor.
In retrospect, some Republicans now may take the
Clinton proposal over ObamaCare, which didn’t develop until 16 years
down the road. But that’s another story.
Combine GOP efforts to tarnish Clinton’s record with
the impacts of redistricting from the 1990 census and congressional
Democrats were cooked.
One would think that sophisticated political analysts
would be prescient enough to see such a landslide months in advance.
However, the most compelling narrative of the 1994 midterm elections was
that virtually nobody was able to detect the possibility of one of the
most lopsided shellackings in American history until just a few weeks
ahead of time.
This brings us to this year’s House and Senate
contests and what could happen down ballot. There are questions about
what November could mean for congressional Republicans if GOP
presidential nominee Donald Trump continues to perform as poorly as he
is now and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, ignites the
Electoral College scoreboard.
We have known since before this election cycle
started that retention of the Senate for Republicans was a jump-ball
proposition at best.
However, the House is another story. It has always
been a challenge for Democrats to cobble together an electoral strategy
that bounces the GOP from the majority and pockets them 30 seats.
Democrats salivated at the possibility of Republicans
nominating a candidate like Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, thinking
either would be so toxic that it could help them in congressional races.
Well, Democrats got their wish. Even so, Trump’s nomination doesn’t predict much of anything for House contests this fall.
Yet.
Yes, it’s August. Early voting begins in many states
in about four weeks. So far, there’s little reason to think the House is
in jeopardy for Republicans. And if there is going to be a hint that
the House could flip -- like 1994 -- such indiciators are most likely
going to emerge rather late.
It won’t take 54 seats. But a 30 seat bar is a lot
for Democrats. And handing over control of the House to the Democrats
constitutes a landslide.
Major factors still inhibit Democrats from having a
snowball’s chance of picking up the lower chamber. They’ve struggled to
recruit strong candidates in some key districts.
Some may even criticize Democratic leaders for
failing to convert the Trump nomination into a cakewalk for House
Democrats. In other words, if the GOP could galvanize opposition around
Bill Clinton in 1994, shouldn’t Democratic demonization of Trump be
child’s play in 2016?
To be fair, those aren’t apples to apples comparisons.
One of the biggest problems House Democrats face is
the political map. In the 22 years since the Republican sea change, both
parties have worked to narrow the playing field. They segregated
Democratic and Republican votes into districts that are more and more
Democratic or Republican.
The result is that electoral politic experts denote
only about 56 districts out of 435 as competitive. That means Democrats
have to hold the approximately dozen seats they now control -- which are
in the swing category -- and simultaneously lock up three-quarters of
every GOP seat that could fall into play.
But that doesn’t tell the full story.
In reality, only about 25 seats are truly
competitive. The issue for Democrats is that there might not be enough
seats available to flip to capture the House.
Here’s another problem for Democrats. The electorate
isn’t excited for Hillary Clinton. However, Democratic voters are
energized against Trump.
Still, that cuts two ways. Many Republicans may not
be ready to vote for Trump. But theories now abound that GOP voters
could show up to vote Republican in House and Senate contests to
represent a check against Clinton, should it be obvious she may win.
All of this centers on turnout.
Trump’s nomination could spark a sit out by
Republicans. Couple that with an Electoral College landslide by Clinton
and various House contests that aren’t on the board now could become
competitive in late September and October.
Trump’s hiring of Breitbart CEO Steve Bannon could result in the unleashing of an even more bellicose nominee.
If that’s the case, congressional Republicans are in
trouble and will have to scramble to further distance themselves from
the top of the ticket. Of course, the good news on that front is that
many Republicans are running races that form a firewall between them and
Trump. That strategy has been in place for months.
One of the best things going for Republicans is that they sit on an historic majority that could serve as a failsafe.
In 2014, House Republicans won 247 seats, their
biggest majority since 1928. The 2010 Census and subsequent
redistricting process dramatically favored Republicans. The body politic
still feels reverberations from those electoral exercises.
The Census and redistricting stopgaps could mean
there’s almost no way for Democrats to claim the House until the midterm
election of 2022. That would follow the 2020 Census and another round
of reallocating congressional seats.
An Electoral College landslide in favor of Clinton --
coupled with a prodigious number of Republican voters simply staying
home -- is probably the best scenario Democrats can hope for in House
races this year. Electoral College landslides aren’t enough.
Republicans only earned 12 seats in 1984 after
President Ronald Reagan won 49 states over Walter Mondale. In 1972,
President Richard Nixon walloped George McGovern with 49 states. That
provided a minimal 12 seat GOP pickup in the House.
It comes down to voter turnout. It’s still too early to understand who might show up in November or participate in early voting.
Thus, it remains an outside shot for Democrats to win
the House. But if the House does move into play, it’s likely the
scenario will mirror 1994 in at least one fashion: we won’t spot that
possibility in the viewfinder until very late.