Donald Trump narrowly leads Hillary Clinton in the battleground states of Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio.
That’s according to Fox News statewide likely voter polls conducted Sunday through Tuesday evenings.
Trump is helped by strong support from working-class
white voters, while Clinton is hurt by a lackluster performance among
younger voters and women.
In each state, Trump’s advantage is within the margin of sampling error. Here’s how the numbers breakdown state-by-state:
Nevada
Trump has a three-point advantage over Clinton among
likely voters in the Silver State (43-40 percent). Libertarian Gary
Johnson receives eight percent. Nevada voters also can cast a ballot
for “none of these,” and that option takes four percent. Green Party
candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot in Nevada.
Independents back Trump (42 percent) over Clinton (23 percent) and Johnson (21 percent).
The Democrat is trailing expectations among women and younger voters.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE NEVADA POLL RESULTS
Those under age 45 are almost equally likely to back
Clinton (42 percent) as they are to back Trump (39 percent) -- and
Johnson garners double-digit support (11 percent).
Women in Nevada backed Barack Obama over Mitt Romney
by a 16-point margin in 2012, according to the Fox News Exit Poll.
Clinton’s up by just six points.
Both Clinton and Trump supporters have a high degree of vote certainty (93 percent each).
“There is a huge geographic disparity in Nevada,”
notes Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll
with Republican Daron Shaw. “Clinton is ahead in Vegas and urban
areas, while Trump leads outside Vegas and in rural areas -- this is an
obvious advantage for Clinton in get-out-the-vote efforts.”
The race is mostly unchanged in a head-to-head matchup without Johnson: Trump 46 vs. Clinton 42 percent.
Views of President Obama’s job performance are
divided: 49 percent approve, while 48 percent disapprove. He won
Nevada in both 2012 (by 6.7 points) and 2008 (by 12.5 points).
North Carolina
In North Carolina, Trump is up by five points among
likely voters. He receives 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent, and 6
percent favor Johnson. Stein is not on the ballot.
Whites back Trump by a 31-point margin (58-27 percent), while blacks support Clinton by 82 points (85-3 percent).
Independents favor Trump (41 percent) over Clinton (24 percent) and Johnson (14 percent).
And while voters under age 45 prefer Clinton by 46-32, Johnson gets 11 percent of them.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS
Ninety-five percent of Trump supporters and 90 percent of Clinton backers feel certain of their vote choice.
In the two-way ballot, Trump’s also up five (47-42 percent).
North Carolina was red in 2012 (Romney by two points)
and blue in 2008 (Obama by less than one point). By a 50-46 percent
margin, more voters disapprove than approve of Obama today.
Ohio
The Buckeye State is another must-win for Trump, and
the poll finds him up by five points among likely voters: 42-37 percent.
Johnson receives six percent and Stein gets two percent.
Trump’s edge over Clinton comes mainly from
independents (+20 points) and working-class whites (+26). Clinton’s up
by just three points among women. Obama won them by 11 in 2012.
Most of Clinton’s (89 percent) and Trump’s supporters (88 percent) are certain they will back their candidate.
“Clinton’s mistakes on the campaign trail have driven
many disaffected Republicans into Trump’s camp,” says Shaw. “Just as
consequential is the fact Trump is ahead of Clinton among independents
by 17-20 points in these states. If that holds, he might actually pull
this off.”
Meanwhile, by a 58-30 percent margin, voters approve
of the job Republican John Kasich is doing as governor. Among those who
approve, 45 percent support Trump, 33 percent back Clinton, and 7
percent Johnson.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE OHIO POLL RESULTS
Without third-party candidates in the mix, it’s Trump over Clinton by 45-40 percent.
Currently, 47 percent of voters approve of the job
Obama is doing, while 48 percent disapprove. He won Ohio in both 2012
(by three points) and 2008 (by almost five points).
“Trump has been much more disciplined in his comments
recently and is almost certainly benefiting from keeping his attacks
focused on Clinton as opposed to other Republicans or Gold Star
families,” says Anderson.
Meanwhile, Clinton trails Trump by two points among
voters living in union households. That voting bloc went for Obama over
Romney by 23 points in 2012.
Senate Races
The polls, released Wednesday, also ask about the
senate races in these key states, and find the races within the margin
of error in Nevada and North Carolina, while Republican Rob Portman
holds a double-digit lead in Ohio. In each state, the GOP senate
candidate fares slightly better than Trump.
There’s good news for Republicans in Nevada, where
they hope to pick up the seat of the retiring Democratic Senate Leader
Harry Reid. Joe Heck leads his Democratic opponent Catherine Cortez
Masto by seven points: 43-36 percent. Independent American Party
candidate Tom Jones trails with 6 percent and “none of these” gets 5
percent.
In North Carolina, incumbent Sen. Richard Burr bests
Democratic challenger Deborah Ross by 43-37 percent, with Libertarian
Sean Haugh at 6 percent.
Ohio Sen. Rob Portman holds a 14-point lead over
Democrat Ted Strickland: 51-37 percent. The incumbent senator tops the
former governor by 28 points among independents. Portman also garners
the support of most Republicans (88 percent), as well as 15 percent of
Democrats. He won the seat in 2010 with 57 percent of the vote.
“Winning the four-to-five seats needed to regain
control of the senate becomes a tricky proposition for the Democrats if
the GOP gains the Reid seat and Burr holds on,” notes Shaw. “The
Democrats have to win their tight races in Pennsylvania and Indiana, and
even that might not be enough.”
There’s also a gubernatorial race in North Carolina.
Republican incumbent Pat McCrory tops Democrat Roy Cooper by 46-43
percent. Libertarian Lon Cecil receives 3 percent.
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint
direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company
Research (R). The polls were conducted September 18-20, 2016, by
telephone (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among a sample
of likely voters selected from statewide voter files in Nevada (704),
North Carolina (734), and Ohio (737). Bilingual interviewers were used
in Nevada. In all three states the margin of sampling error is plus or
minus 3.5 percentage points for the total sample of likely voters.