For more than two years the American people, in a great majority,
from left to right, have been in revolt against the political class and
the financial elites in America. It is a revolt with historic parallels,
most closely resembling the Jacksonian revolution of the 1820s. It is
an uprising. It is a peaceful uprising of a people who see a country in
decline and see nothing but failure in the performance of their
leadership institutions. And they have signaled their intent to take
back their country and to reclaim their sovereignty.
Unfortunately, the analysts, the pollsters and most
importantly the commentariat of the political class have never
understood, and in fact are psychologically incapable of understanding
what is happening. And for the entire cycle of this presidential
campaign they have failed to grasp what was happening before their eyes –
for it runs counter to everything they believe about themselves.
In truth, they are suffering from cognitive
dissonance believing in their righteous superiority and are not capable
of realizing that it is they who have become the adversary of the
American people. And therefore they have been wrong, in this entire
election cycle, every step of the way.
For them, American politics only began yesterday.
They know little history and have no appreciation of the collective
consciousness of the American people. Whether it is the campaign of
Bernie Sanders, who came within a hair’s breadth of knocking out the
coronated nominee of the Democratic establishment or on the other side,
the emergence of the total outsider Donald Trump, the most improbable
candidate of all. In truth, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, sucked from
the same trough even if it was from opposite ends. But the critical
point that is missed, by almost everyone, was that neither Sanders nor
Trump created this uprising. They were chosen vehicles – they did not
create these movements, these movements created them.
In less than a day we will know how far this revolt has
come. But, make no mistake, whatever the outcome, this revolt is not
ending, it is merely beginning.
In less than a day we will know how far this revolt
has come. But, make no mistake, whatever the outcome, this revolt is not
ending, it is merely beginning.
Several years ago, I began, with my colleagues at
Armada, an ongoing, in-depth research project on what has become known
as the “Candidate Smith” project. A good friend of mine, Lee Hanley, who
sadly just passed away, volunteered to begin this project with only one
charge: that we explore my hypothesis that something profound was
happening in the collective consciousness of the American people.
What we learned in our in-depth research was as
astonishing as it was unexpected. It became clear from this really deep
public opinion inquiry that American politics has entered an historic
paradigm. What is emerging in what had been assumed to be the static
political system was about to be reconfigured in ways and that we still
do not know fully. But one thing is certain: the old rules of politics
are collapsing and a new edifice is emerging.
The conventional wisdom that America is absolutely
divided into warring tribes is a tired falsehood. Overall, in the
attitude structure of the American people, the elements of this new
paradigm are commonly shared by upwards of 80 percent of the population –
from the Occupy Wall Street movement on the left to the Tea Parties on
the right. The political battleground is no longer over ideology but
instead is all about insurgency.
The larger atmosphere is dominated by three overriding beliefs:
First, the American people believe that the country
is not only on the wrong track but almost 70 percent say that America is
in actual decline. The concept of decline is antithetical to the
American experience.
Second, for more than three centuries, the animating
moral obligation of America has been the self-imposed obligation that
each generation passes on to its children a better America than they
themselves inherited. This is what makes us Americans. In Armada’s
polling we found that a majority of Americans believe that they are
better off than their parents were. But a great majority says that THEIR
children will be worse off than they themselves are today. This is the
crisis of the American Dream. And it is no surprise that a majority of
Americans agree that if we leave the next generation “worse off” that
there will still be a place called “the United States” but there will no
longer be an “America.”
Third, when asked whether or not everyone in America
plays by the same rules to get ahead or are there different rules for
well-connected and people with money, a staggering 84 percent of voters
picked the latter. Only 10 percent believed that everyone has an equal
opportunity.
These over-arching attitudes provide the framework for today’s political revolt.
Unfortunately, I suspect, if you asked these
questions of the political, financial and media elite they would have a
very different response.
From the time I was a teenager and a self-starting
pollster I have had an acute interest in the phenomenon of political
alienation. In our research, the current level of alienation that now
grips the American electorate is staggering and unprecedented.
Here are some of our latest results among likely voters from early October 2016:
1. The power of ordinary
people to control our country is getting weaker every day, as political
leaders on both sides, fight to protect their own power and privilege,
at the expense of the nation’s well-being. We need to restore what we
really believe in – real democracy by the people and real
free-enterprise. AGREE = 87%; DISAGREE = 10%
2. The country is run by
an alliance of incumbent politicians, media pundits, lobbyists and other
powerful money interests for their own gain at the expense of the
American people. AGREE = 87%; DISAGREE = 10%
3. Most politicians really care about people like me. AGREE = 25%; DISAGREE = 69%
4. Powerful interests
from Wall Street banks to corporations, unions and political interest
groups have used campaign and lobbying money to rig the system for them.
They are looting the national treasury of billions of dollars at the
expense of every man, woman and child. AGREE = 81%; DISAGREE = 13%
5. The U.S. has a
two-track economy where most Americans struggle every day, where good
jobs are hard to find, where huge corporations get all the rewards. We
need fundamental changes to fix the inequity in our economic system.
AGREE = 81%; DISAGREE = 15%
6. Political leaders are
more interested in protecting their power and privilege than doing what
is right for the American people. AGREE = 86%; DISAGREE = 11%
7. The two main political
parties are too beholden to special and corporate interest to create
any meaningful change. AGREE = 76%; DISAGREE = 19%
8. The real struggle for
America is not between Democrats and Republicans but between mainstream
American and the ruling political elites. AGREE = 67%; DISAGREE = 24%
These numbers and many, many more from our research
paint the true outlines of the emerging political paradigm and the
insurgency that it has ignited. In fact, it is the last question above
that is agreed to by “only two-thirds” of the American people. Despite
everything we are told day and night – that political battle in America
is between Democrats and Republicans – two thirds of the American people
believe that the battle lines are drawn between mainstream America and
its ruling Political Class. THIS is the battle of 2016 and beyond.
These are findings that the reader has likely never
been told. For they reflect the legitimate dissent of the American
people from the actions and leadership of their establishment
institutions. This is something the political class and mainstream media
refuse to recognize much less acknowledge.
Befitting the emerging new paradigm, 2016 has already
been an election like none we have ever known. But it is not without
some parallels to another election.
In 1980, America was gripped with a foreign policy
crisis, there hostages being held in Iran, inflation was exploding and
the electorate was very unhappy. The country had two candidates for
president: the incumbent – President Jimmy Carter and Republican
challenger Ronald Reagan. For the first time in polling history both
candidates, Carter and Reagan, were viewed negatively by the American
people -- although their negatives were nowhere near the level of
Clinton and Trump’s unpopularity. While the shock of Vietnam and
Watergate had helped propel an unknown peanut farmer to the presidency,
there was nowhere near the level of alienation and discontent that now
grips America.
I was Jimmy Carter’s pollster and strategist in 1980
and I know, more than anyone, about what really happened. The entire
Carter campaign was premised on painting the controversial Ronald Reagan
as too risky to be president and too dangerous to entrust with nuclear
weapons.
Exactly a week before Election Day there was a fatal
presidential debate (that I wanted to avert) which gave Ronald Reagan
his chance to make his case. It shook up the election.
The coalescing of voters around Carter began to break
down. Within a couple of days Reagan had established a small lead over
President Carter.
On the Saturday before the election the race had rebounded into a tie or slight Carter lead. And then it all fell apart.
My polling for the campaign told the story. By Sunday
night President Carter was 5 points down and by Monday night the margin
had exploded to 10 points down.
The uniqueness of 1980 is this: In the history of
American polling this was the only presidential election that entered
the last weekend close and finished in a landslide. The only one.
The question on the table now is: could 2016 be the second such election? If it is, it won’t be for Hillary Clinton.
The political class and the mainstream media have a
narrative that Trump’s late surge is the result of an intervention by
FBI Director James Comey. That narrative, like every one they’ve had
over this cycle, couldn’t be more wrong. The momentum of the election
was already moving toward Trump
before Comey’s announcement to
reopen of the Clinton email investigation. That event, like the
presidential debate in 1980, tended to accelerate what was already in
motion.
No two elections are really the same, whatever similarities they share. And neither are 1980 and 2016.
Here are a couple of differences – In 1980 there was
no early voting. Without thinking through the consequences, this reform
has resulted in millions of ballots being cast long before the campaign
culminates. And that is almost surely an edge for Hillary Clinton and
the better organized Democratic Party.
While both elections in 1980 and 2016 feature an
American public that attitudinally wants real change there are
differences that have already been noted: Many polls show that by just
about 2 to 1 voters do not want to continue the policies of President
Obama. In 1980 disapproval of Carter’s job performance did not extend to
the personal feelings Americans had for Carter and the deep respect
they had for his integrity. (And of course, in both elections,
Americans saw the country headed in the wrong direction.)
As suggested before, the alienation and discontent of the American electorate is way beyond that of 1980.
In 1980 the mainstream media was far more even-handed in its coverage and prided itself on journalism and not partisanship.
As I look at some of the deeper polling results, the
questions I have been able to inject into the Breitbart/Gravis polling
questions of recent days, may be in the end, instructive. As with Jimmy
Carter in 1980, Hillary Clinton is far more likely to be viewed as
qualified to be president and possessing a better presidential
temperament.
But the results of the latest poll are worth
pondering: Here are the most interesting questions and answers. First,
voters were asked to agree or disagree with following question:
For years, the political elites have governed
America for their own benefit and to the detriment of the American
people – this election is the best chance in our lives to take back our
government. AGREE = 63% (with 46% strongly agreeing); DISAGREE = 31%
Voters were then asked the same two questions of each candidate:
Which
is closer to your opinion if (Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump) wins:
the political elites and special interests win; the political elite and
special interests lose.
By 65 percent to 35 percent voters said that if
Hillary Clinton wins the political elites WIN. And by an opposite
margin, the majority of voters said that by 57 percent to 43 percent the
elites LOSE if Trump wins.
Significant numbers of Clinton’s
own voters believe that her win is a victory for the unpopular elites and special political interests.
So the question is, if these attitudes are salient in
the voters’ minds as they vote on Tuesday it could produce the biggest
surprise of all in 2016.
But regardless of who wins on November 8 this uprising of the American people has just begun.
Patrick Caddell is a Democratic pollster and Fox News
contributor. He served as pollster for President Jimmy Carter, Gary
Hart, Joe Biden and others. He is a Fox News political analyst and
co-host of "Political Insiders" Sundays on Fox News Channel.