Donald Trump, the most unconventional president of our lifetimes, did
a very conventional thing tonight, delivering a message of unity in a
soft voice to a joint session of Congress.
This was a speech about what government can accomplish, not a Reaganesque “government is the problem” appeal.
It was a more uplifting speech than his inaugural
address, with several appeals for bipartisanship and some lines that
could have been delivered by a Democrat. While Trump is not a great
orator, he spoke for an hour with confidence and a polish for one who
didn’t spend years delivering political speeches.
And this is not the kind of language we are accustomed to hearing from Donald Trump, who on Jan. 20 spoke of American “carnage”:
“We are one people, with one destiny. We all bleed
the same blood. We all salute the same flag. And we are all made by the
same God.”
It almost sounded like a reset, at least atmospherically.
The 45th president signaled that this was a different
kind of speech by beginning with Black History Month and a denunciation
of anti-Semitic incidents. He hit his major themes—cutting regulations,
reducing crime, building a wall, lowering taxes, creating jobs—but
without the harsh partisan edge. And while Democrats, who mostly sat on
their hands, disagree with much of his agenda, Trump was trying to
reassure the audience that things are heading in the right direction.
Even after ticking off what he said were the failures
of the Obama administration, Trump told the lawmakers they had “to work
past the differences of party” and “united for the good of the
country”—a rhetorical olive branch that may or may not be seized by both
sides.
Citing Ike’s national highway program, Trump called
for a trillion-dollar infrastructure program that could hold some appeal
for Democrats. But cutaway shots showed people like Elizabeth Warren
refusing to clap.
Trump even called, without elaboration, for “positive immigration reform.”
The president got perhaps his loudest ovation from
the GOP side in promising to repeal and replace the “imploding ObamaCare
disaster”—and a few Democrats made thumbs-down motions. As on other
issues, Trump sketched only broad pictures, but said they would ensure
that “no one is left out.”
It was a bit of a laundry list, like every State of
the Union, from rare diseases to school choice, and to child care and
paid family leave, a special Ivanka interest.
But there was a disconnect with budgetary reality.
While Trump touted the major boost he wants in defense spending, he
didn’t mention his plan for $54 billion in offsetting domestic budget
cuts that the White House announced Monday. For instance, Trump said he
would promote “clean air and clean water,” but his budget blueprint
would slash EPA’s budget.
Once the pundits are done dissecting the speech, we will return to the more pedestrian debate over the budget.
The budget argument has been raging in Washington for
three decades: Republicans want more defense spending, Democrats want
more social spending. And while both parties agree that entitlements are
a mess, the Republicans want much more aggressive.
This was an issue in the Clinton administration, when
Democrats ripped Newt Gingrich over proposed cuts to Medicare that he
maintained were simply slowing the rate of growth in the massive health
care program.
This was an issue in the Bush administration, when
the president couldn’t get his party to hold hearings on his plan to
partially privatize Social Security.
This was an issue in the Obama administration, when
the president was willing to yield ground on entitlements as part of a
grand bargain with John Boehner that never materialized.
But Trump is different. He campaigned on what is
essentially the Democratic position: No cuts to Medicare and Social
Security, not even in the longer term. But since entitlements are 60
percent of the federal budget, that means the $54-billion in cuts will
have to come out of a relatively small portion of the bureaucracy.
Unless, of course, the economy booms. “I think the
money is going to come from a revved-up economy,” Trump told “Fox &
Friends.” This is the supply-side argument that Ronald Reagan made and
that Washington has debated ever since.
Trump’s preliminary budget plan drew negative reviews in much of the media, and not just from liberal commentators.
National Review,
which opposed Trump in the primaries, said his blueprint suggests “that
his fanciful campaign promises — to solve the nation’s pecuniary woes
by targeting ‘waste, fraud, and abuse’ and cutting foreign aid — have
not been adapted to fiscal reality. It’s still in the earliest stages,
but his plan portends a significant increase to an already massive
federal debt…
“The graver menace is our entitlement programs, which
at present constitute 60 percent of federal government spending; they
are expected to reach two-thirds of federal spending within a decade.
The president’s budget, though, is designed to protect the largest of
those programs — and not just from cuts to benefit levels, but from any
cuts at all. This is silly.”
A New York Times
editorial, rather than simply arguing that the president can’t pay for a
10 percent hike in defense spending, says the Trump plan “won’t
strengthen America’s security, and might, in fact, undermine it…
“The $600 billion yearly Pentagon budget is certainly
not too low, given the drawdown of troops fighting wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Mr. Trump should be asking himself not how to heave more
billions at the Pentagon but how to make sure it is spending its
existing budget wisely.”
This, says the Times, is “a choice that would harm millions of Americans while shoveling more profits to military contractors.”
A Washington Post
editorial focuses more on fuzzy math, saying it’s “distressingly likely
that the plans he has would make the fiscal situation far worse.
“Reality check: The combined budget for the EPA and the State Department was only about $46 billion in the current fiscal year. Even eliminating them entirely could not pay for the defense boost Mr. Trump is apparently contemplating.”
But here’s the thing: Trump is a veteran negotiator.
This is his opening bid. So the real question is whether he can make a
deal with 535 lawmakers.