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U.S. employment growth seen rebounding, wages increasing

U.S. job growth likely rebounded in April and wages increased, pointing to a further tightening in labor market conditions that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.
Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 185,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters poll of economists, after a paltry gain of 98,000 in March.
The March gain, the smallest in 10 months, was dismissed as payback after unseasonably mild temperatures in January and February pulled forward hiring in weather-sensitive sectors like construction and leisure and hospitality.
The Labor Department will release its closely watched employment report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Friday.
Job gains in line with expectations would support the Fed’s contention that the pedestrian 0.7 percent annualized economic growth pace in the first quarter was likely “transitory,” and its optimism that economic activity would expand at a “moderate” pace.
“The labor market continues to tighten, we have on average seen inflation rise over this past year,” said Ray Stone, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey. “From the Fed’s perspective, there is probably going to be a policy tightening in June and probably again sometime over the balance of the year.” The Fed on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged and said it expected labor market conditions would “strengthen somewhat further.”
The U.S. central bank raised its overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in March and has forecast two more increases this year.
Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3 percent last month, partly because of a calendar quirk. While that would keep the year-on-year increase at 2.7 percent, there are signs that wage growth is accelerating as labor market slack diminishes.
A government report last week showed private sector wages recorded their biggest gain in 10 years in the first quarter.
NEAR FULL EMPLOYMENT
The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Job growth averaged 178,000 per month in the first quarter.
The unemployment rate probably ticked up to 4.6 percent last month from a near 10-year low of 4.5 percent in March. With the labor market expected to hit a level consistent with full employment this year, payroll gains could slow as firms struggle to find qualified workers.
“We have seen a steady increase in anecdotal evidence of a mismatch in the labor force,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management in Baltimore. “There are a number of industries that are having trouble hiring enough qualified personnel and those things will eventually lead to upward wage pressures.”
Construction and manufacturing hiring likely led the anticipated acceleration in job growth last month. Retail employment probably declined for a third straight month.
Retailers including J.C. Penney Co Inc , Macy’s Inc and Abercrombie & Fitch have announced thousands of layoffs as they shift toward online sales and scale back on brick-and-mortar operations.
More people likely entered the labor force in April, which could led to a marginal rise in the participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job. The labor force participation rate is at an 11-month high of 63 percent.
“At this point there just aren’t a lot of excess discouraged workers left and dropout rates of unemployed workers are already low, so there’s not a lot of apparent room left to extend the participation rate rebound,” said Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

U.S. House approves tighter North Korea sanctions

The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved legislation on Thursday to tighten sanctions on North Korea by targeting its shipping industry and companies that do business with the reclusive state.
The vote was 419 to 1.
Supporters said the legislation was intended to send a strong message to North Korea, amid international concern over the escalation of its nuclear program.
The measure would have to be approved by the Senate before it could be sent to the White House for President Donald Trump to sign into law.
Although legislation addressing North Korea has been introduced in the Senate, there was no immediate word on when or if the Senate might take up a bill.
Any new U.S. sanctions against North Korea would likely affect China, the North’s most important trade partner.
While China has been angered by North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests, it has signed up for increasingly tough U.N. sanctions against it, and says it is committed to enforcing them.
Asked about the latest U.S. legislation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang reiterated that China opposed other countries using their own domestic law to impose unilateral sanctions.
With the situation tense on the Korean Peninsula, all sides need to exercise restraint and not irritate each other to avoid the situation worsening, he said.

Report: Russia says Syria safe zones will be shut for US warplanes

Russian news agencies reported on Friday that U.S. and coalition warplanes will not be allowed to fly over safe zones in Syria.
Putin on Wednesday said he had a “very good” conversation over the phone with Trump, and that his U.S. counterpart agreed to a proposal to establish Syrian safe zones to protect civilians in the war-torn country.
But the White House only confirmed that the two leaders discussed the safe zones, not that there were any agreements.
It is unclear how Russia would enforce this reported no-fly zone for coalition forces.
Reuters reported that countries like Iran and Turkey have agreed on Moscow’s proposal for the “de-escalation zones.” The United Nations also reportedly welcomed the plan.
The proposal presented to the rebels in Astana delineates four zones in Syria where front lines between the government and rebels would be frozen and fighting halted, according to a statement made by rebels. The four include areas in the provinces of Idlib and Homs, the eastern Ghouta suburbs outside Damascus, and an area in the south of the country.
The zones, according to the document received by rebels, would be monitored by international observers and allow for the voluntary return of refugees.
Late Wednesday, Syria's Foreign Ministry said Damascus is "fully backing" the Russian initiative on the four cease-fire areas, according to the state-run SANA news agency.
But Ahmed Ramadan, an opposition representative, told The Associated Press that rebels requested a written answer on a number of questions, including why the cease-fire would only be in effect in the four areas instead of a nationwide truce.

Congress Passes Bill to Repeal and Replace Obamacare

Congress voted to make sweeping changes to the American health care system Thursday. Republicans passed the American Health Care Act to repeal and replace Obamacare with 217 yea votes and 213 no votes.
Rep. Leonard Lance (R-NJ) , one of the few Republicans who voted no to the bill, said, “I don’t think this bill lowers premiums” and he added he would have liked to see a CBO score. The bill still has not been scored. Lance also said he’d like to “see the parties coming together and see cooperation from our Democratic colleagues” in a more bipartisan bill.
Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows, said it was a series of discussions that brought him and other Caucus members from a ‘no’ to ‘yes’ vote.
In an last minute switch, Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) and Rep. Billy Long (R- MO) told President Trump, they had decided to vote ‘yes’, giving Republicans the final count they needed to go forward with the vote.
After the vote, House Democrats sang “Na Na Na Na Hey Hey Hey Goodbye”, a song by Steam, on the House floor to Republicans.
A few major main provisions of the bill include:

• Obamacare subsidies for lower income Americans are repealed.
• The bill offers yearly tax credits ($2,000-$4,000 a year) to those without insurance based on age.
• A complete Medicaid funding overhaul. A fixed amount of funding is provided by the federal government. The bill ends open-ended entitlement and puts the program on a budget, cutting $880 billion dollars over 10 years.
• The bill cuts taxes on high income people by taking out a tax that previously charged an additional 3.6%

The bill could still see some major changes when it hits the Senate. However, after it passed Republicans headed to the White House Rose Garden for a celebratory press conference. President Trump said, “premiums will be coming down did will be coming down but very importantly its a great plan and that’s what it’s all about.”

Borrowing from the Bank Cartoons

Changes at helm of U.S. bank agency signal new Trump era

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Trump administration on Wednesday took its first step in replacing Obama-era banking regulators, naming a veteran financial lawyer as interim head of the watchdog for federally chartered banks.
Keith Noreika, a partner at law firm Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, will be first deputy comptroller at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and will run the OCC on an interim basis when Comptroller Thomas Curry leaves on May 5, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.
Former banker Joseph Otting, who worked with Mnuchin at Californian lender OneWest, is considered the lead contender to permanently replace Curry, several people familiar with the matter have said. That appointment requires Senate confirmation and analysts said they expected Noreika to be in charge for much of this year.
U.S. President Donald Trump wants to overhaul regulation of the financial services system to make it easier for banks to lend and has asked Mnuchin to review the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law by June 3.
The OCC is one of several regulators that monitors the health of Wall Street banks but has a particularly influential role in scrutinizing lending practices.
Under Curry, OCC bank examiners have clamped down on what they perceive as overly risky loans, particularly the type used to fund private equity buyouts.
Curry used his position to warn banks when he thought they were talking on too much risk in loans to energy firms and property developers.
“Curry did use the bully pulpit to warn banks against risky activity and I think you’re likely to see less of that going forward,” said Ian Katz, financial policy analyst at research firm Capital Alpha.
The appointment of Noreika and the expected nomination of Otting meant limits on how much banks can lend to highly indebted companies may be loosened in the future, said Jaret Seiberg, analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group.
“This is the most bullish sign yet for the biggest banks that the Trump administration will pursue a traditional Republican approach of financial regulation rather than adopt a more populist tone that could include high leverage capital requirements,” Seiberg said.
CONTROVERSIAL CHOICES
Trump’s plans to overhaul regulation are being held up by the government’s current lean crew of regulators.
While the Senate voted on Tuesday to confirm attorney Jay Clayton to head the Securities and Exchange Commission, the OCC’s changing of the guard might not be so smooth.
Democrats have criticized practices at OneWest, the lender created by Mnuchin after the 2008 housing crisis that foreclosed on 36,000 California families. Mnuchin hired Otting as chief executive of the bank in 2010 and he held that role until it was bought by CIT Group in 2014.
Noreika’s background as a lawyer who has advised banks on M&A, including Ant Financial’s acquisition of Moneygram, as well as on the Volcker Rule, which prohibits banks from making speculative bets, is also controversial.
“It is disturbing that the President is rushing to replace Mr. Curry with an acting appointee who has clear conflicts of interest, and lacks any experience in running such an important agency,” Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown, the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement.
Noreika’s appointment does not require Senate approval.
Curry, a career regulator, was appointed by the Obama administration for a five-year term that expired last month and has since been serving under an extension.
While Curry took a tough line on risky lending, the agency did come under fire for its failure to tackle a sales practice abuse scandal at Wells Fargo & Co.
The OCC is also trying to establish itself as a regulator of online lenders and financial technology firms. State authorities have argued that is their job and are suing the OCC, arguing it lacks the legal authority to offer a banking charter for technology companies.
There are also three vacant spots on the Federal Reserve Board, including the post of vice chair of supervision, which will play a key role in any overhaul of bank regulation.
Earlier on Wednesday, Mnuchin told a conference of community bankers that Trump had signed off on a nominee to fill the vice chair role but did not name the person. Reuters had previously reported that Randal Quarles, who worked as under secretary for domestic finance at the Treasury under President George W. Bush, was a leading candidate.
Mnuchin said the administration was also close to naming the two other Fed selections.

Trump spends more time than predecessors in White House bubble

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – In his first 100 days in office, Donald Trump made fewer appearances outside of the presidential bubble than his three immediate predecessors, venturing less beyond the White House or his private Mar-a-Lago estate, according to a Reuters review.
The U.S. president cast himself during his election campaign last year as a Washington outsider and a populist champion, and often seemed most comfortable at raucous campaign rallies.
Trump still constantly tells Americans what is on his mind through prolific use of Twitter messages, but he has not traveled out into the country often since taking office on Jan. 20.
Trump made comments at official appearances 132 times in the first 100 days, compared with 139 by Barack Obama in the same period, 177 by George W. Bush and 162 by Bill Clinton. (http://tmsnrt.rs/2p8M8EU)
Some 22 of his appearances were in settings other than the White House, Air Force One, a government agency or at Mar-a-Lago, a Florida resort that his administration has called the “winter White House.” That compares to 62 such appearances by Obama in his first 100 days, 80 for Bush and 46 for Clinton.
Reuters reviewed public remarks delivered by the presidents using White House websites, pool reports and documents archived by the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Trump made public comments on five separate occasions at Mar-a-Lago. None of the other three presidents spoke to the public from a personal residence during their first 100 days, although Bush spoke twice at Camp David, the rustic presidential retreat in Maryland.
Asked about his travel, Trump’s advisers say he is focused on implementing the promises he made at his campaign rallies.
    “There is obviously a premium on his time,” said White House spokeswoman Natalie Strom. “We proceed with any additional travel very thoughtfully.”
    Bradley Blakeman, who was deputy assistant for scheduling and appointments under Bush, said Trump may be missing out on opportunities to sell his message to the public.
“Deals are made in Washington on Pennsylvania Avenue, but they are sold on Main Street, USA,” Blakeman said. “It’s an important part of the bully pulpit.”
    He said Trump should do targeted events focused on specific legislative priorities that will get coverage by local news outlets, where stories on presidential visits tend to be more positive than in the national media.
    During his first 100 days, Bush visited more than half a dozen schools in Washington and at least five different states as he promoted his education initiative, No Child Left Behind.
    Trump’s first major legislative push has focused on reforming the U.S. healthcare system, but he has not yet delivered remarks at a medical facility.
In an interview with Reuters last week, Trump lamented the confining nature of the presidency with its 24-hour Secret Service protection.
“You’re really into your own little cocoon, because you have such massive protection that you really can’t go anywhere,” he said.
Still, he remains a constant focus of public attention, helped by his use of Twitter, a tool that was seldom used or was entirely unavailable to his most recent three predecessors.
“Interaction online does not completely replace the value of in-person appearances, but you can’t ignore the fact that there is no limit on the amount of people the president’s tweets can reach,” Strom said.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said that while Trump’s use of social media had opened a new chapter in presidential communication, his lack of sustained attention on any one issue undercut his message.
    “There’s not a focus there. When a president is all over the map, then he loses his power,” Jacobs said.