Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Fox News Exit Poll: Dissatisfaction with Obama, economy keys GOP wave


Dissatisfaction with President Obama, along with concern about the future of the economy and a sense the country is on the wrong track, contributed to a wave of Republican pickups, including Republican control of the U.S. Senate and additional gains in the U.S. House of Representatives.
A 59 percent majority feels dissatisfied or angry toward President Obama, while 41 percent are enthusiastic or satisfied with his administration’s performance.  This is similar to his job rating: 44 percent approval vs. 54 percent disapproval.  
Nationally, a third of all voters said opposition to the president was a reason for their in vote in House races, while only 20 percent expressed support for Obama in their choice of candidate. 
Reason for U.S. House Vote
Support Obama           19 percent
Oppose Obama           33 percent
Not A Factor               45 percent

Meanwhile, there is a sense among voters that the economy continues to struggle: 70 percent rate the country's current economic condition as not good or poor, while 28 percent say the economy is in good condition and only 1 percent calls it excellent. 
Condition of Nation’s Economy
Excellent                                   1 percent
Good                                       28 percent
Not good                                 48 percent
Poor                                        22 percent

Just over three-quarters of Americans -- 77 percent -- are at least somewhat worried about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next year, while 22 percent said they were not too worried or not at all worried. 
Worried About Future of U.S. Economy?
Very                37 percent
Somewhat        40 percent
Not too            18 percent
Not at all           4 percent

More than a quarter say their family’s financial situation has gotten better over the past two years, while a similar number say their situation has gotten worse. Those who say it has gotten better supported the Democratic candidate for Congress by a 60 percent to 38 percent margin. Those who say it has gotten worse went for the Republican candidate, 67 percent to 31 percent.
Financial Situation
Gotten better               29 percent
Gotten worse              25 percent
Same                          45 percent

All of that leads to a sense the country is on the wrong track. Only 31 percent say the economy is going in the right direction, down from 46 percent in 2012.  Most voters -- 65 percent -- believe the country is on the wrong track. Voters who think things are on the wrong track backed the Republican candidate in their district by a 65 percent to 30 percent margin.
Direction of the Country 
Right               31 percent
Wrong            65 percent

This pessimism extends to attitudes toward life for the next generation of Americans. Nearly half think life for their children will be worse than life today, while only 22 percent say it will be better.
Life for Next Generation
Better than today                    22 percent
Worse than today                   48 percent
About the same                      27 percent

Despite the attention to issues such as Ebola and ISIS, the economy remains most prominently on the minds of voters. Nearly half -- 45 percent -- see the economy as the most important issue facing the country. Those economy voters split 49-49 in their House vote.  Health care voters went for the Democrat by 60-38 percent, while immigration voters backed the Republican by 73-25 percent.  
Most Important Issue Facing Country
Economy                                45 percent
Health care                             25 percent
Illegal immigration                   14 percent
Foreign policy                         13 percent

Nearly half of voters nationally feel ObamaCare went too far, nearly doubling the number who say it didn’t go far enough. About one in five (21 percent) say the law is about right. Voters who think the law went too far went for the Republican candidate in their district by nearly 70 points.
Feelings About ObamaCare
Went too far                           48 percent
Not far enough                       25 percent
About right                             21 percent

Only one voter in five says they can trust the government in Washington to do what is right just about always or most of the time.  Most voters trust Uncle Sam only some of the time or never.
Trust Government?
Almost always                       3 percent
Most of the time                    17 percent
Only sometimes                     60 percent
Never                                   18 percent

The key voting group of independents made a big difference again Tuesday. While they made up the same amount of the electorate, they were more likely to back the Republican by 10 points. In 2010, independents went for the Republican in their district by 19 points.
National House Vote
Independents
Democrats       42 percent
Republicans     54 percent

Here are the key findings in some of the most contested states.
Colorado
In a Senate election where women’s issues were central to the campaign, Sen. Mark Udall emerged the leader among that group, but it was Rep. Cory Gardner, the Republican challenger, who won the day.  

Women
Udall                           52 percent
Gardner                      43 percent

Gardner’s support came from many groups, including independents and male voters.  
Independents
Udall                           43 percent
Gardner                       50 percent

Men
Udall                           40 percent
Gardner                       56 percent

Over half of Colorado voters disapproved of President Obama’s job performance, mirroring  results in many other states. Gardner won the support of these voters by an 82-13 percent margin.
Obama Job Performance
Approve                      43 percent
Disapprove                  55 percent

Finally, almost two thirds of Colorado voters said most illegal immigrants working in the United States should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.
Policy Toward Illegal Immigration
Legal Status    65 percent
Deport            28 percent
           
Georgia
In Georgia, Republican David Perdue held the open Senate seat for the Republicans, defeating Democrat Michelle Nunn and garnered enough of the vote to avoid a runoff election.

A key to his victory was the independent vote. Independents broke strongly for Perdue. Perdue received 59 percent of the independent vote, compared with 36 percent going for Nunn.
Independents
Nunn                           36percent
Perdue                         59percent
Swafford                       5percent

Georgia voters were sending a message -- 36 percent of voters said a reason for their vote was to show opposition to President Obama, while only 19 percent said a reason for their vote was to show support for the president. Other voters said the president was not a factor.
Reason For Senate Vote
Support Obama           19percent
Oppose Obama           36percent
Not A Factor               43percent

Three-quarters of Georgia voters said who controlled the Senate factored into their vote. These voters supported Perdue by a 53 percent to 46 percent margin.
How Important Is Party Control of Senate?
Very important                        76 percent
Somewhat important               15 percent
Not too important                     5 percent
Not at all important                   4 percent

Iowa
Republican Joni Ernst took the open Senate seat in Iowa away from the Democrats, defeating  Democrat Bruce Braley. Ernst played up her farming background, which resonated with Iowa voters. More than four-in-ten voters were from rural areas, and they strongly backed her.

Rural voters
Braley  38 percent
Enrst    58 percent

More voters agreed with Ernst on the issues, than Braley.
Ernst On The Issues
Too Conservative        37 percent
Not Enough                 10 percent
About Right                 47 percent

Braley On The Issues
Too Liberal                44 percent
Not Liberal Enough    10 percent
About Right                37 percent

President Obama is not popular in Iowa, with 60 percent of voters disapproving of the job he is doing, while 39 percent approve.
Obama Job Performance
Approve                      39 percent
Disapprove                  60 percent

Kansas
Republican incumbent Pat Roberts held onto to his seat in Kansas today as the party faithful put their support behind him.  

Challenger Greg Orman, won a majority of support among fellow independents.    
Independents
Roberts            37 percent
Orman             54 percent
Batson               9 percent

However, Orman’s advantage among independents and early deciders was outweighed by Roberts’ advantage among Republicans, who make up 48 percent of Kansas voters. Roberts won Republicans by a 85-13 percent margin.
Party Breakdown
Democrat                                25 percent
Republican                              48 percent
Independent                            28 percent

Despite his win, 62 percent of voters said Roberts has spent too much time away from Kansas to represent the state effectively. Those voters broke for Orman 55-38 percent.
Roberts Away From
Kansas Too Much?
Yes                  62 percent
No                   33 percent

But the Republican leaning in Kansas remained constant among voters Tuesday.  A majority of Kansas voters said they wanted the Republicans to win control of the Senate. Only 29 percent say they prefer the Democrats to win control.
Prefer to Win Control of the Senate
Democrats                  29 percent
Republicans                56 percent
Does not matter          12 percent

Louisiana
Louisiana will host a runoff between incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and her Republican challenger Bill Cassidy. Cassidy appears to have the advantage, with voters saying they would support Cassidy in a runoff by a 51 percent to 43 percent margin

Runoff Election Vote
Landrieu                      43 percent
Cassidy                       51 percent
No vote                        4 percent

Over half of voters -- 57 percent --  say that Landrieu agrees with the president too often, while only 34 percent say she agrees with the president about the right amount of the time.
Landrieu Agrees With Obama On The Issues
Too often                    57 percent
Not enough                   6 percent
About Right Amount   34 percent

North Carolina
Incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan was defeated by Republican Thom Tillis in the hotly contested race in North Carolina. One problem for Hagan was President Obama, with more Tar Heel State voters viewing the administration negatively than positively.

Feelings About Obama Administration
Positive           39 percent
Negative         60 percent

Additionally, about half of North Carolina voters said Hagan agrees with Obama too often.
Hagan Agrees With Obama
Too Often                   52 percent
Not Often Enough        6 percent
About Right                37 percent

Nearly 40 percent of North Carolina voters were very worried about the direction of the nation’s economy. These voters supported Tillis, 72 percent to 25 percent.
Worried About Future of U.S. Economy?
Very                39 percent
Somewhat       36 percent
Not too            19 percent
Not at all           5 percent

Virginia
In a race that is still too close to call Wednesday morning, Sen. Mark Warner received an unexpectedly strong challenge from Republican candidate, Ed Gillespie. The race was driven in part by dissatisfaction with President Obama’s job performance.

Obama job performance
Approve                      40 percent
Disapprove                  58 percent

Seniors, who strongly supported Warner in 2008, broke for Gillespie Tuesday, which contributed to the closeness of the race.
Seniors
Warner                        46 percent
Gillespie                       54 percent

Four out of five Virginia voters are worried about the direction of the nation’s economy next year.  Only 40 percent of those voters went for Warner, while 58 percent went for Gillespie.   
Worried About Future
Of  US Economy?
Worried                       82 percent
Not Worried                18 percent

Methodology
Edison Research conducted this exit poll for Fox News and interviewed over 18,000 voters as they left randomly selected polling places around the country.

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