Friday, January 29, 2016

Trump leads polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina


Donald Trump holds a strong lead over the Republican field in three states while the race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders continues to remain close, according to three new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/ Marist polls out Thursday.
In Iowa, Trump has the support of 32 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows seven points behind with 25 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has 18 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has 8 percent and Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has 4 percent. All other candidates have 2 percent.
In the same poll less than three weeks ago, Cruz led Trump, 28 to 24 percent.
On the Democratic side, Iowa remains a tossup: Clinton leads Sanders by 3 percentage points among likely Democratic caucus-goers, 48 percent to 45 percent. Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is at 3 percent.
But in New Hampshire, Sanders leads Clinton among likely Democratic primary voters by 19 percentage points — 57 percent to 38 percent. O’Malley had just 2 percent. Last month, the Vermont senator led the former secretary of state by just 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.
On the Republican side in New Hampshire, Trump keeps his strong lead (31 percent). The next-closest competitor is Cruz with 12 percent. Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are tied at 11 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has 8 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie holds 7 percent, with everyone else below 5 percent.
But there’s good news for Clinton in South Carolina, where she has the support 64 percent of likely Democratic voters while Sanders has just 27 percent.
South Carolina is also a good state for Trump, who has the backing of 36 percent of likely Republican primary voters, Cruz follows him with 20 percent and Rubio has 14 percent. Bush, despite the backing of Sen. Lindsey Graham, has 9 percent and Carson has 8 percent. No other candidate has more than 2 percent.
The Iowa telephone survey was conducted Jan. 24-26. Of the respondents, there were 450 likely Republican caucus-goers and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. There were 426 likely Democratic caucus goers with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. The New Hampshire telephone survey of 612 likely Republican primary voters was taken Jan. 17-23, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. There were 568 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The South Carolina telephone poll was also conducted Jan. 17-23. There were 718 likely primary voters with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points; with the subsample of 446 likely Democratic primary voters, there is a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.

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