If Democrats run in 2018 like they're running in California, they're in big trouble

Kurt Bardella, Opinion Columnist
Published 3:08 p.m. ET Feb. 28, 2018 | Updated 1:53 p.m. ET March 5, 2018

Sen. Dianne Feinstein

If you’ve been in politics long enough, you’ve heard the phrase, “As goes California, so goes the nation.”

In the case of the 2018 midterm elections, this could spell bad news for Democrats and good news for Republicans.

It wasn’t long ago that Democrats openly and almost giddily mused about a potential 40-seat pickup in the House, nearly double the 24 seats they need to flip in order to retake the majority. However, recent weeks have given Democrats reason to think twice about their lofty expectations.

Their advantage on the generic ballot preference goes up and down and often falls to single digits. Even more troubling for their congressional takeover prospects, however, is the state of the Democratic Party in California.

California Democrats hosted their party convention in San Diego last weekend and made some absolutely puzzling decisions.

In a stunning rebuke of the establishment, the party refused to endorse Sen. Dianne Feinstein. She won only 37% support from convention delegates, far short of the 60% she needed. Progressive challenger and state Senate leader Kevin de Leon also fell short, but he outperformed Feinstein with 54% of the vote.

Feinstein is still the heavy favorite to win re-election in November. But the rejection of Feinstein, a political icon in California, is a potentially important data point in the civil war brewing within the Democratic Party between the base and establishment.

Have the Democrats not learned anything from watching the war within the Republican Party?

What’s even more perplexing is the reality that Feinstein can’t get the party’s endorsement, but a female lawmaker being investigated for sexual misconduct in the state Capitol can get it.

There are other signs that show California Democrats just do not have their act together. For instance, the San Diego-area 49th congressional district was considered one of the top battleground seats in the country. For almost two decades, the district had been represented by my former boss, Republican Rep. Darrell Issa. In January, Issa announced that he'd forgo re-election and retire at the end of his term.

Since then, the situation has deteriorated for Democrats. Now there are fears that under California's jungle primary system, in which the top two vote-getters go on to the general election regardless of party, so many Democrats are running that they'll divide the vote and a Democrat might not even make the top two.

In a completely botched effort to narrow the field, one candidate had prepared to leave the race and run for a different office at the local level, but inexplicably failed to review the residency guidelines and missed the cutoff to qualify for the local election by a single day. Another did drop out, but that leaves four relatively unknown Democrats still running for the congressional seat against a better known Republican lineup that includes a member of the state Board of Equalization, a state assemblyman, a San Diego County supervisor and a local mayor.

The Issa district isn’t an isolated situation, either. Seven Democrats are running in the Orange County district held by retiring Rep. Ed Royce. Four Democrats are challenging Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, also in Orange County.

How can a party so divided hope to defeat the Republicans in November?

Complicating matters, Democratic candidates will once again face U.S. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi's litmus test. Since 2010, Republicans have likely spent more than $150 million on attack ads tying Democrats to Pelosi — and it has worked every time. Pelosi has gone from a 39% approval rating in 2013 to 29% in 2017. President Trump refers to Pelosi as theGOP’s “secret weapon.”

Clearly, the Democrats are their own worst enemies, but we knew that already having watched the sequence of events that put Donald Trump in the White House.

On paper, Democrats have every reason to be optimistic about their chances to take back the House. History is certainly in their favor. In the postwar midterm era, the median loss for a president’s party has been 22 seats. Since 1962, the president's party has lost 40 seats on average when the president’s approval rating is below 50% — and Trump’s is at 41%.

And yet, an icon like Feinstein can’t even get her state party’s endorsement. With prime pickup opportunities in reach, Democrats can’t even narrow the field in competitive districts and could be left out of the general election entirely. And the leader of congressional Democrats is the weapon of choice for Republicans to use against them.

If, and it might be a big if, Republicans somehow survive the midterms with their majority intact, Democrats will emerge the morning after demoralized and asking themselves: What went wrong?

The answers could very well lie in California.

Kurt Bardella, a member of USA TODAY’s Board of Contributors, is a former  spokesperson for Republican members of Congress and Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter: @kurtbardella