WASHINGTON
(AP) — The political fate of party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew may
well hinge on how forcefully he is backed by President Donald Trump,
whose impeachment the New Jersey lawmaker is refusing to support.
With the House set for a near party-line vote impeaching Trump this week,
the longtime Democrat told his staff two days ago that he will become a
Republican, a former aide said Monday. Underscoring the partisan
animosity that the impeachment fight has spawned, at least six of Van Drew’s top aides promptly quit.
Now,
the 66-year-old former state legislator, who’s been a political
powerhouse in his southern New Jersey district, must figure out how to
survive a race in which local Democrats now despise him and Republicans
don’t want him elbowing them aside.
His
race will also test the electoral impact of his party switch on the
face of the impeachment showdown, which has sharply divided the two
parties. In recent years, congressional party switchers have had mixed
records extending their careers.
Trump
met with Van Drew last week and has complimented him on Twitter for his
“honesty.” With impeachment on the horizon, Trump praised the
congressman again early Tuesday. “Congressman Jeff Van Drew is very
popular in our great and very united Republican Party,” the president
wrote. “It was a tribute to him that he was able to win his heavily
Republican district as a Democrat. People like that are not easily
replaceable!
One
rival for the GOP nomination for the seat says he’s been told Trump
will endorse Van Drew. While there’s been no word on whether Trump will
help Van Drew win the GOP nod in next June’s primary or aid him during
next November’s general election, analysts say Trump’s backing will be
crucial.
“Whatever
trouble in the Republican primary Jeff Van Drew might have goes away
when Donald Trump throws his arm around the guy,” said Ben Dworkin,
director of the nonpartisan Rowan Institute for Public Policy &
Citizenship in Glassboro, New Jersey.
Van
Drew’s general election prospects will depend on factors including how
liberal the Democratic presidential nominee and the Democrat seeking the
House seat are. His district has become increasingly conservative, with
Trump carrying it narrowly in 2016 after Barack Obama won it in 2008
and 2012.
“I
think Van Drew would be the early favorite, assuming Trump helps him get
the nomination,” said Patrick Murray, director of the nonpartisan
Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Van Drew did not return phone calls and text messages seeking comment.
Van
Drew’s defection to the GOP got a thumbs-up Monday from Cheryl McCleary
as she waited tables at a luncheonette in Surf City, on New Jersey’s
Long Beach Island.
“I
appreciate the fact that he’s staying true to his conscience,” said
McCleary, an independent voter. “If you feel like you’re not in touch
with your party on key issues, it’s a good thing to switch.”
Van
Drew’s decision came after a poll by his campaign showed that by 2-1
margins, voters in his district preferred alternatives to him in the
primary and general election. The poll was provided by a senior
Democratic aide.
“This
is a guy who cut and ran away from the Democratic Party to protect his
own skin,” said David Richter, former CEO of a global construction firm
who’s seeking the GOP nomination.
Richter said local GOP officials have told him Trump will back Van Drew, but says he thinks he can still defeat him.
“Anybody
who runs on the Republican side is against the impeachment. I’m against
the impeachment,” Richter said. “That’s not enough. You also have to be
someone who has integrity. You also have to be someone who stood up for
Republican principles their whole lives.”
Van Drew, a former dentist, was a conservative state senator before he
joined Congress, bucking Democrats on issues including gun control and
gay marriage.
In
his first year in Congress, Van Drew was among a handful of Democrats
who voted against Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., becoming speaker. He and
Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson were the only two Democrats who voted in
October against starting the impeachment inquiry, and both were expected
to oppose impeachment this week, with perhaps a handful of others.
Overall,
Van Drew has voted with Trump 7 percent of the time, according the data
tracking website fivethirtyeight.com. That’s one of the higher scores
among House Democrats, and far beneath the lowest loyalty score for any
Republican, which was 35 percent.
New Jersey Democrats were already bidding him good riddance.
“It’s
certainly not a profiles in courage award that he gets,” Sen. Bob
Menendez, D-N.J., said in an interview. He said he believed Van Drew was
switching because his anti-impeachment vote would have cost him the
Democratic Party’s endorsement next year.
“Congressman
Van Drew has long voted against core Democratic values,” Democratic
Gov. Phil Murphy said in a tweet. “Betraying our party by siding with
Donald Trump is the final straw.”
Montclair
State University political science Professor Brigid Harrison, who
declared Monday that she would seek the Democratic nomination for Van
Drew’s seat, called Van Drew “a blind pawn for Donald Trump.”
After
Republicans captured the House majority in 1994, five Democrats
switched to the GOP, including two who lost their next elections. But
Rep. Billy Tauzin of Louisiana joined the GOP leadership and became a
committee chairman while Georgia Rep. Nathan Deal was elected governor.
“They
were more than happy for us to leave,” former Rep. Mike Parker of
Mississippi said of his former Democratic colleagues in an interview.
In 1999, five House Democrats backed impeaching President Bill Clinton. Three of them eventually switched to the GOP.
Among
the most recent party switchers was Rep. Parker Griffith, D-Ala., who
joined the GOP in 2009. He lost the Republican nomination for his seat
the following year.
Conservative
Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan left the GOP and became an independent
this year after saying he was open to impeaching Trump. His prospects
for reelection next year are unclear.
___
Associated Press writers Michael Catalini in Trenton and Wayne Parry in Surf City, New Jersey, contributed to this report.
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