BEIRUT
(AP) — Iran has long sought the withdrawal of American forces from
neighboring Iraq, but the U.S. killing of an Iranian general and an
Iraqi militia commander in Baghdad has added new impetus to the effort,
stoking anti-American feelings that Tehran hopes to exploit to help
realize the goal.
The
Jan. 3 killing has led Iraq’s parliament to call for the ouster of U.S.
troops, but there are many lingering questions over whether Iran will
be able to capitalize on the sentiment.
An
early test will be a “million-man” demonstration against the American
presence, called for by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and
scheduled for Friday.
It
is not clear whether the protesters will try to recreate a New Year’s
Eve attack on the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad by Iran-supported
militias in the wake of U.S. airstrikes that killed 25 militiamen along
the border with Syria. Iran might simply try to use the march to
telegraph its intention to keep up the pressure on U.S. troops in Iraq.
But
experts say Iran can be counted on to try to seize what it sees as an
opportunity to push its agenda in Iraq, despite an ongoing mass uprising
that is targeting government corruption as well as Iranian influence in
the country.
“Iran
is unconstrained by considerations of Iraqi sovereignty, domestic
public opinion, or legality when compared to the Western democracies,”
said David Des Roches, an expert with The Arab Gulf States Institute in
Washington. “This is Iran’s strategic advantage; they should be expected
to press it.”
A
withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq would be a victory for Iran, and
Tehran has long pursued a two-pronged strategy of supporting anti-U.S.
militias that carry out attacks, as well as exerting political pressure
on Iraqi lawmakers sympathetic to its cause.
Despite
usually trying to keep attacks at a level below what might provoke an
American response, Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah fired a barrage of
rockets at a military base in Kirkuk in December, killing a U.S.
contractor and wounding several U.S. and Iraqi troops. The U.S.
responded first with deadly airstrikes on Iran-affiliated militia bases
in western Iraq and Syria, then followed with the Jan. 3 drone attack
that killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful military
officer, along with Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis as
they left Baghdad’s airport.
The
severity of the U.S. response surprised Iran and others, and it had the
unanticipated result of bolstering Tehran’s political approach by
prompting the Iraqi parliament to pass the nonbinding resolution pushed
by pro-Iran political factions calling for the expulsion of all foreign
troops from the country. In response, President Donald Trump has
threatened sanctions on Iraq.
“What
they want to do is get rid of U.S. troops in what they see as a
legitimate political manner,” said Dina Esfandiary, a London-based
expert with The Century Foundation think tank. “If Iraqis themselves are
voting out U.S. troops, it looks a lot better for Iran than if Iran is a
puppet master in Iraq trying to get rid of them — and on top of that it
would be a more lasting decision.”
The
legitimacy of the resolution is a matter of dispute. Not only was the
session boycotted by Kurdish lawmakers and many Sunnis, but there also
are questions of whether Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi has the
ability to carry it out. Abdul-Mahdi resigned in November amid mass
anti-government protests but remains in a caretaker role.
U.S.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo bluntly rejected the call for the
troops’ removal, instead saying Washington would “continue the
conversation with the Iraqis about what the right structure is.”
Abdul-Mahdi
strongly supported the resolution, but since then has said it will be
up to the next government to deal with the issue, and there are
indications he has been working behind the scenes to help keep foreign
troops in the country.
After
closed-door meetings with German diplomats last week, German Foreign
Minister Heiko Maas said the prime minister had assured them that he had
“great interest” in keeping the Bundeswehr military contingent and
others part of the anti-Islamic State coalition in Iraq.
The U.S., meantime, said it had resumed joint operations with Iraqi forces, albeit on a more limited basis than before.
Trump
met Iraqi President Barham Saleh on Wednesday on the sidelines of the
World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland, and said Washington and
Baghdad have had “a very good relationship” and that the two countries
had a “host of very difficult things to discuss.” Saleh said they have
shared common interests including the fight against extremism, regional
stability and an independent Iraq.
Asked about the plan for U.S. troops in Iraq, Trump said, “We’ll see what happens.”
In
a sign that bodes well for NATO’s continuing mission in the country,
Iraq’s deputy foreign minister went to Brussels last week for talks with
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on the alliance’s presence in Iraq.
The
mixed message of publicly calling for the troops to go but privately
wanting them to stay is an indication of Iran’s strong influence,
particularly among its fellow Shiite Muslims, Des Roches said.
“For
any Iraqi politician in Baghdad — particularly a Shia politician — to
defy Iran openly is to risk political as well as physical death,” he
said. “So we shouldn’t be surprised if the public and the private lines
espoused by Iraqi politicians differ.”
American
forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011 but returned in 2014 at the
invitation of the government to help battle the Islamic State after the
extremist group seized vast areas in the north and west of the country. A
U.S.-led coalition provided crucial air support as Iraqi forces,
including Iran-backed militias, regrouped and drove IS out in a costly
three-year campaign. There are currently some 5,200 American troops in
the country.
Even
before the drone strike, there were growing calls in nationwide
protests across sectarian lines, which started in October centered in
Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, for the end of all foreign influence in the
country. The demonstrations also targeted government corruption and poor
public services.
The
rejection of Iranian influence over Iraqi state affairs has been a core
component of the movement, and pro-Iranian militias have targeted those
demonstrations along with Iraqi security forces, killing hundreds and
injuring thousands. Protesters fear that with the focus on the push for
the U.S. troop withdrawal in response to the attack that killed
Soleimani, they may be even easier targets for those forces and that
their message will be lost.
“I
think Iraq has had enough of having to deal with the Americans and the
Iranians alike,” Esfandiary said. “But the assassination of al-Muhandis,
almost more so than Solemani, was such a glaring oversight of
sovereignty and of all agreements they had signed on to with the U.S. in
terms of the U.S. presence in Iraq, that it has kind of taken some of
the attention away from Iran, to Tehran’s delight.”
Friday’s
march called for by al-Sadr is expected to redirect the focus onto the
U.S. troops. The cleric, who also leads the Sairoon bloc in parliament,
derives much of his political capital through grassroots mobilization.
The
Tahrir Square protesters initially rejected that call, saying they want
the escalating conflict between Iran and the U.S. off of Iraqi soil.
Since
then, al-Sadr has reached out to them directly, saying the
demonstrations against the government and against the American troops
are “two lights from a single lamp,” and it is not yet clear whether
that might convince them to participate in the march.
___
Associated Press writers Darlene Superville in Davos, Switzerland, and Samya Kullab in Baghdad contributed to this story.
___
This story has been corrected to show that the first name of teh Iraqi prime minister is Adel, not Abdel.
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