WASHINGTON (AP) — Presidential politics move fast. What we’re watching heading into a new week on the 2020 campaign:
Days to general election: 162 ___
THE NARRATIVE
As some parts of the nation continue to ease stay-at-home orders meant to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the economy remains in free fall. And, with the U.S. death toll
now climbing toward 100,000, a conundrum is emerging: Even if people
are allowed to resume their daily routines, will they feel safe enough
to do so? President Donald Trump says that the country is anxious to get
back to work and that pent-up consumer demand can turn things around in
a hurry. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden counters by urging
caution and heeding medical and scientific experts, many of whom say
it’s much too early to return to normal. Which one is correct may
ultimately not be clear until after November’s election — but will
nonetheless almost certainly be the determining factor in who wins it.
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THE BIG QUESTIONS
Does Biden have no choice but to choose an African American running mate?
Black leaders have for weeks argued that the former vice president picking an African American as his vice president
is the only way to reflect the Democratic Party’s deep diversity and to
repay a community that helped Biden overcome a disastrous start to
dominate in the South and win the primary. But the issue may have come
to a head on Friday when Biden endured a testy exchange with prominent
black radio personality Charlamagne Tha God before declaring, “If you’ve
got a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or for Trump, then you
ain’t black.”
He later said he shouldn’t have been so “cavalier,”
but not before sparking a social media firestorm and prompting the
president’s reelection campaign to decry it as the kind of race-baiting
it often gets accused of. “It is clear now more than ever, following
these racist and dehumanizing remarks, that Joe Biden believes black men
and women are incapable of being independent or free thinking,” Black
Voices for Trump said in a statement.
Biden
has refused to publicly discuss his running mate finalists, but they
are thought to include several prominent white women, including Sens.
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. He
figures to do well with African American voters in November no matter
whom he picks, but a lack of enthusiasm in the black community hurt
Hillary Clinton in the battleground state of Michigan and elsewhere in
2016. That’s a calculation Biden may be unable to ignore, even as his
campaign insists his choice will have more to do with personal
relationships than skin color.
How much more political will science get?
Trump
has long energized his conservative base by rejecting climate change
and academic intellectualism but lately has begun suggesting the institution of science is out to undermine him. The president insisted on taking the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine
to guard against the coronavirus despite federal warnings against doing
so. He also rejected as politically motivated a study showing that
nearly 36,000 Americans’ lives might have been saved if social distancing measures had been put in place one week sooner. Polling has already shown that issues like wearing face masks in public are becoming increasingly partisan.
If science itself follows a similar path, that could hinder evolving
efforts to slow the virus — potentially producing results deadly enough
to go well beyond the political.
How much more political will voting by mail get?
Trump has intensified his opposition to expanding mail-in balloting amid the pandemic, even threatening federal funding
to the battleground states of Michigan and Nevada before later
suggesting that might not be necessary. Many Democratic-led states are
nonetheless looking to ease rules on absentee voting, saying the
coronavirus may make it a matter of life and death. With top Republicans
rallying behind Trump’s insistence that doing so is undemocratic and
federal court cases on the issue already raging in places like Texas,
how the nation votes may prove as pivotal to November’s outcome as for
whom it votes.
Are political conventions possible in the age of the coronavirus?
The
Republican National Committee marked 100 days until the scheduled start
of its convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, by proudly suggesting
last weekend that nearly 50,000 attendees would soon be descending on
that city. Its chair, Ronna McDaniel, was subsequently less committal
about the gathering going off exactly as planned and beginning Aug. 24
amid the pandemic. But she vowed that it will happen at least partly in person, saying, “We will not be holding a virtual convention.” Democrats have already delayed their convention
from July until August and have been more open to the idea of it
unfolding virtually — taking steps to grant organizers the authority to
design an event that won’t require delegates attending in person. A
bigger question than if some in-person activities remain intact for one
party or the other, though, is whether attendees will want to go —
especially given the low political stakes since the presidential nominee
on both sides isn’t in doubt.
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THE FINAL THOUGHT
Trump’s
reelection chances likely hinge on convincing the country he built a
sustained economic boom once and can do so again, leading an equally
speedy and robust recovery after the coronavirus sparked an
unprecedented bust. Biden has taken a different approach, promising to
use the crisis to build a new economy that will embrace progressive
proposals designed to lift all Americans — but without really saying how
long that might take. Amid what may prove to be the nation’s worst
downturn, whether voters can look past the “when” to the “how” of a
recovery is an open question. Still, it’s one that can’t be answered
until a recovery actually begins to materialize.
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2020 Watch runs every Monday and provides a look at the week ahead in the 2020 election.
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Catch up on the 2020 election campaign with AP experts on our weekly politics podcast, “Ground Game.”
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