Republican Mike Garcia |
LOS
ANGELES (AP) — A swing U.S. House district north of Los Angeles is up
for grabs Tuesday in a special election that has become an early test
for President Donald Trump as he seeks a second term.
Trump
has sought to bring his influence to the fight between Republican Mike
Garcia and Democrat Christy Smith for California’s 25th District, which
cuts through a hilly stretch of suburbs and small ranches that includes
the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
The results are unlikely to be known for at least for several days, due in part to California’s unusual vote-counting rules.
The
district was long in Republican hands before Democrat Katie Hill
captured it in an upset in 2018; she resigned last year amid a House
ethics probe.
When
Hill won, it was the last Republican-held House seat anchored in Los
Angeles County. It also includes a slice of Ventura County.
The
race is widely considered a toss-up. The outcome will not affect the
balance of power in the House but the race has taken on outsized
importance as the only competitive House race in the country in the
midst of the coronavirus crisis.
Another special election Tuesday is in a Wisconsin district considered safe GOP territory.
But
in California, Republicans are hoping for a rare upset in the heavily
Democratic state where the GOP hasn’t managed to seize a Democratic
House seat in over two decades.
While
the district has a Democratic registration edge, there are factors that
could help Garcia’s chances. Hill resigned in scandal, and in an
expected low-turnout election older, white Republicans tend to be among
the state’s most reliable voters. Younger registered voters in the state
who lean liberal are known to be frequent no-shows.
Virtually
all voters were expected to mail in ballots because of the virus
outbreak, though a sprinkling of polling places are available for those
who want, or need, to vote in-person. That has made predicting turnout
even more challenging than usual.
Early
mail-in returns have been robust and leaning Republican: According to
nonpartisan Political Data Inc., 29% of those ballots had been returned
by Monday. Of that total, 40% were from Republicans, 27% Democrats and
roughly 20% from independents, who tend to lean Democratic in
California.
Garcia
has been running as a Trump loyalist in a district the president lost
in 2016. Trump remains widely unpopular in California outside his GOP
base.
Most of
the campaign was conducted online, without traditional rallies and
door-knocking. And California’s stay-at-home orders apparently will
thwart any effort by the campaigns to engage in so-called ballot
harvesting, a legal practice in California in which operatives collect
ballots from voters and deliver them to polling places.
Republicans
pointed a finger at the practice after the Democratic rout in 2018
House races in the state, in which Democrats captured seven GOP seats.
Republicans now hold just six of California’s 53 House seats.
The
Los Angeles County Democratic Party said in a statement it “has no
plans on participating in the collection of vote-by-mail ballots during
the ... special election.” Republicans also said they will not collect
ballots, citing health risks during the outbreak.
With
the seat vacant, Smith and Garcia topped a crowded field of candidates
in the state’s March 3 primary and advanced to separate elections: One,
on Tuesday, to fill the remainder of Hill’s two-year term, and a second
in November for the full, two-year term starting in 2021.
Garcia,
a former Navy fighter pilot and defense industry executive, has
depicted Smith as another vote for the Democratic status quo in
California that he blames for soaring homelessness, heavy regulation and
rising taxes.
Smith
is a state Assembly member promising to work for improved health care
who has been critical of the president and his administration.
Last
weekend, Trump took to Twitter to attack a decision to add an in-person
polling place in Lancaster, a part of Los Angeles County with a
significant black population. “Rigged Election!” Trump wrote. However,
it turned out the decision was supported by Lancaster’s Republican
mayor.
With a
national debate underway on mail-in voting, the race will also serve as a
window into how the process works out, albeit on a small scale.
California
will be looking to avoid the problems that plagued April’s Wisconsin
presidential primary, where thousands of voters without protective gear
were forced to wait for hours in long lines, while thousands more stayed
home to avoid the potential health risks.
A
win by Garcia in the special election next month would establish him as
the incumbent and show Republicans can compete in a district where
Trump was defeated by Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, November
typically draws a large Democratic turnout in California, particularly
in presidential election years, which would give Smith an edge in the
rematch.
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