Good Morning, That Fourth Speakership Ballot Is Going to Be a Circus

Spencer covered the House speakership vote yesterday, which mirrored the Zapruder film. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) thinks he’ll be the next House speaker—he’s working in that office as we speak. There was one massive problem: he didn’t have the votes. The first ballot was a shot through the neck, and then the second and third ballots delivered headshots to the California Republican’s hopes of a smooth ascension to the speaker’s office from the Grassy Knoll—back and to the left. Both sides eventually recessed until noon today, the motion to adjourn being one of mercy for Mr. McCarthy, who was losing his support base.

McCarthy briefs reporters:

- he is not dropping out

- he has talked to Trump tonight, was given his support

- is eying strategy to get votes without getting 218, aka members who vote present. Says there's a path where he flips 11 votes & wins

- he says reporters can go home

— Sarah Ferris (@sarahnferris) January 4, 2023

At least 20 anti-McCarthy rebels are gumming up the works by backing one man with zero chance of being speaker: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH). Jordan doesn’t want the job, but these members hold a deep personal animus towards McCarthy. They don’t have a secondary protocol, as explained by former Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-SC), who spoke with this group. Mulvaney is no fan of McCarthy but doesn’t see anyone else who could fill that position. It’s operation chaos, which he conceded is a messy way to hold a speaker’s vote. 

The "selfish" argument from both R sides:

Pro-KM: It is selfish that a small faction is holding the conference hostage and blocking the person who clearly has majority support.

Anti-KM: It is selfish for McCarthy to stay in this race when it is clear he doesn't have 218.

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) January 4, 2023

What’s even more reckless is that McCarthy went into this thing, apparently knowing he didn’t have the votes, and this wasn’t a day-of situation. He probably knew for weeks, but also knew Democrats didn’t have the votes to get their guy—Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)—the gavel, either. Alas, this brutal iceberg collision that we all deserve. Jeffries is too liberal to siphon any GOP support, so we’re at an impasse.

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Lots of question swirling among GOP members rn:

-More detractors tomorrow?

-If and when do the old bulls in the House GOP potentially start saying that's enough to McCarthy?

-Lots of chatter about alternatives if KM can't pull it off.

-Qs on whether Trump lost faith in KM?

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) January 4, 2023

Unlike Boehner’s speakership, the weeks of discontent among conservatives were venting exercises—but this was different heading into yesterday’s bedlam. One of the easiest votes for the incoming House Republican majority was bungled, much like how the party botched the 2022 midterm election results. The House GOP majority is beyond razor-thin, so just a handful of defectors could have created the circus we saw last afternoon.

Ingraham pushes him on his "end game," Roy pushes back on assumption Jeffries/Dems can come out with upper hand in this process.

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) January 4, 2023

Roy continues: "Some of us have been working in 60 days in good faith to get actual changes to fix this place."

Claims they gave a "good faith offer" to McCarthy to get 218 votes, but "he turned it away."

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) January 4, 2023

And heading into today’s fourth ballot, the situation hasn’t changed. It’s become more of a shambles, with McCarthy’s camp now insinuating that they can clinch the speakership with less than 218 votes. It’s not unprecedented, but it’s getting there; given the intensity of the internal opposition he faces, that’s peculiar. We have reports that some GOP members aren’t even sure if the standoff can be resolved. 

Some GOP members telling me they don’t know how this standoff can be resolved

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) January 4, 2023

MCCARTHY MOVES: Talk of winning with fewer than 218 is starting, saying he needs "technically just 11 more votes to win"
"Democrats have 212 votes, you get 213 votes, and the others don't say another name, that's how you can win. You can win with 218. You could win with 222."

— Emily Brooks (@emilybrooksnews) January 4, 2023

Pelosi was elected Speaker with 216 in 2021. Boehner was also elected Speaker with 216. But the question is, how do you get the other nine to agree to a "present" vote or no vote?

— Emily Brooks (@emilybrooksnews) January 4, 2023

Spencer will have the vote count later today. Start drinking.   

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— Mostly Peaceful Memes (@MostlyPeacefull) January 3, 2023