There are rumblings that Democrats are resigned to
defeat in November, at least in the presidential race. Joe Biden’s
disastrous June 27 debate sparked panic among Democrats, which led to a vast left-wing conspiracy,
including megadonors, Hollywood, Barack Obama, ex-Clinton aides, and
Hill Democrats plotting to force Biden to step aside. The marquee
writers for The New York Times editorial staff also joined the chorus,
begging Joe to step down. Biden has defiantly refused, sparking nasty
infighting that’s likely to continue gnawing at the heels of the party
until election day. That rancor died down on July 13, when Thomas
Matthew Crooks, 20, tried to assassinate former President Donald Trump
in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Trump missed death by millimeters, with the bullet grazing his right
ear. The image of the former president with a raised fist and bloody
face has been iconic; even liberals have had to admit it’s an enduring
photograph. It gutted the main attack line against Trump, being that
he’s a threat to democracy. It also chilled any further pushes to remove
Biden from the Democratic ticket. The failed assassination attempt also
had some Democratic strategists coming to the conclusion that this
election is over and that all focus should be re-directed toward
regaining the House and retaining control of the Senate (via NBC News) [emphasis mine]:
“We’re
so beyond f---ed,” one longtime Democratic insider said, noting that
the image of Trump thrusting his fist in the air, with blood
dramatically smeared across his face, will be indelible.
“The
presidential contest ended last night,” said a veteran Democratic
consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to give a candid
assessment of his own party’s standing less than four months before the
election.
“Now it’s time to focus on keeping the Senate
and trying to pick up the House,” he said. “The only positive thing to
come out of last night for Democrats is we are no longer talking about
Joe Biden’s age today.”
[…]
One Democratic
strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns and on
Capitol Hill said that the physical targeting of Trump robs Biden of his
main argument against the former president. Biden, the
strategist pointed out, has tried to convince voters that Trump is so
extreme that he presents a threat to democracy.
“That message is dead,” the strategist said,
after a gunman tried to kill the presumptive nominee of one of the two
major parties. The bullet that struck Trump “probably saved Biden’s
nomination” by freezing Democratic calls for him to step aside and
“doomed his re-election.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, echoed that sentiment.
“I’m
very concerned that the net effect of the Republican convention will be
neutralizing the core democracy critique of Trump — a felon who
fomented a violent insurrection, tried to block the peaceful transfer of
power, and said the Constitution may need to be terminated,” he said.
[…]
A
Trump spokesperson did not reply to NBC News’ request for comment on
whether the campaign views the attempted assassination as an asset on
the campaign trail. But Trump used the already-iconic photo of him
raising his fist in the air, while surrounded by his protective detail,
in a fundraising appeal Sunday. A full-color American flag appears in
the background of a black-and-white version of the photo used to pitch
for donations. The words “NEVER SURRENDER” are emblazoned across the top
of the image.
For one veteran of Democratic congressional campaigns, that picture says it all.
“The
clear effect of this assassination attempt is that it officially thrust
Donald Trump out of politics and into martyrdom,” this person said.
“They’re framing this as an attack on MAGA and not on Trump — even more
powerful. This is literally biblical stuff we’re talking about.”
Democrats
will “never be able to compete with that level of enthusiasm among base
voters,” the person added. “So yeah, we’re even more f---ed with Biden.
... And relying on Trump to be a galvanizing, unifying enemy won’t work
as well.”
Oh, man, they're so salty.
The piece is also littered with
many consultants who think this event won’t shape the election much.
That’s some lofty dreaming. In a base election, the one that’s more
energized wins, and the Trump coalition is one of the most efficiently
dispersed geographically. In our system, which favors geographic
diversity, Trump has the advantage. In a close race, the advantage is
Trump. Biden must be polling significantly ahead of Trump in the
national polls to get close to a baseline where a path to 270 is even
remotely possible. He’s nowhere near that—his team is reportedly giving
up on the Sun Belt gains, refocusing their energy
on keeping Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Trump is leading in
all three states, with Pennsylvania being the most likely to flip.
Post-debate polling from Democratic and Republican sources has Trump
increasing his lead over Biden in the Keystone State from four to ten
points. Biden losing Pennsylvania alone is the ballgame.
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